Imagine the following scenario: After eight long years, a
Republican vacates his office. The Democrats, sensing the seat is theirs to
win, put forth a number of strong, well-known candidates. Despondent
Republicans lament a far-from-outstanding pool of candidates, including a
would-be populist campaigning from his red pickup truck. One Democratic
candidate emerges well-poised from a narrow primary win to become the first
woman ever in the seat. The Republican Party, on the other hand, struggles to
unify after a divisive primary. (A runner-up, endorsed by James Dobson, even
considers an independent run).
Though the independent candidacy never materializes, the
damage has been done. The Republican nominee relies heavily on personal
finances as the Democrat soars ahead in fund-raising and, in a nearly evenly
divided electorate, wins in November with 53 percent.
While this might sound like a plausible scenario for the
2008 presidential election--if Hillary Clinton makes it out of the primaries--it’s
also the story of Tammy Baldwin’s
1998 congressional run in Wisconsin’s
2nd district. The similarities to Clinton’s
potential race are admittedly scant. Though the 2nd district is a fair
microcosm of the U.S. in its
division between urban, suburban, and rural populations, it's also home to the
liberal stronghold of Madison.
But Baldwin, like both of the leading democratic nominees, was a historic
first: America’s
first-ever openly gay non-incumbent elected to Congress. There are lessons in her campaign
that Clinton or
Obama would be wise to heed.
The single most important issue Baldwin
had in her favor was health care reform. Advocating for a single-payer system,
Baldwin's message resonated in both Madison
and the district's farmlands, where steep prescription-drug prices and the high
risk of going without coverage made the high cost of health care foremost in
voters' minds. At the same time, Baldwin was
able to paint her Republican opponent, Jo Musser, an insurance commissioner in
former governor Tommy Thompson's administration, as beholden to insurance
companies. David Welch, a consultant to Musser, explained his candidate's
disadvantage: "In general, if you have a Democrat and a Republican on
health care, the Democrat is going to win. It just isn't a good Republican
issue." It was true in 1998, and it will be true in 2008.