But Hilal's appointment is more about Khartoum's
internal strategy than it is a jab at the sensitivities of the international
community. In a critical development over the past year, Arab tribal
groups--even those such as the Mahamid clan to which Hilal belongs--have become
deeply disaffected with the Khartoum regime. Many Arab tribal groups, though a
minority in Darfur, have provided soldiers for Khartoum’s genocidal violence.
They have been paid primarily in the form of booty from villages they have
destroyed, and have counted on the “changed demography” that Hilal encouraged
as a way of sustaining their nomadic way of life. But Arab groups are
increasingly feeling that they have been betrayed by Khartoum--in particular,
that the land they have been promised has gone to too few. The vast majority of
African villages have been destroyed, and there is little left to loot. So,
while the majority of Arab groups have attempted to stay neutral in the
conflict, all now suffer from the consequences of the scorched-earth policies
that have been central to the regime’s tactics in confronting the rebellion.
As a consequence, some Janjaweed have simply left the
genocidal campaign, attempting to resume their former lives or make their way
as bandits; others have actively switched their support to the rebel groups. It
was precisely to stanch these losses that Hilal was appointed. Khartoum well
knows that if their Arab militia allies continue to changes sides--and they
give strong evidence of doing so--then military control of any but the major
towns of Darfur will be impossible. To Khartoum, the situation is a military
problem, so they have appointed a military man to solve it.
Armed
struggle, however, may not be the most pressing concern for civilian Darfuris.
This fall, the harvests across Darfur were disastrous, and as the broader
agricultural economy continues its collapse, markets that once thrived and
defined the economic geography of Darfur no longer exist; the traditional
opportunities for bartering and trade have been largely lost. A way of life
that was in key respects symbiotic has been destroyed. Tens of thousands of
displaced Africans from Darfur are predicted to migrate to camps for displaced
persons in the coming months--not for security, as has been the case, but for
food. Many within the nomadic Arab populations will inevitably follow.