Of course, a single incident
doesn't demonstrate a trend, but these same voters--who helped elect Senator Jim
Webb in November 2006 against George "Macaca" Allen--have evolved nationally
into a major source of Democratic support. (Many of them regard themselves as "independents,"
but regularly vote Democratic.) Playing the race card won't sit well with these
voters, who will play an important role in states like California,
Pennsylvania, Virginia,
and Maryland.
And many of them are the college-educated women who were so important to Clinton's majority in New Hampshire.
Finally, suppose that Clinton does win the
nomination after an acrimonious primary battle. Will there be repercussions in
the fall? In recalling that Jackson had won the
1988 South Carolina
caucus, Bill Clinton could have drawn a much different conclusion. In 1988, Jackson surprised many Democrats not only by winning
states in the Deep South, but by winning the Michigan caucus in March by nearly two-to-one
over Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. That set up a showdown in New York the next month pitting Jackson against Dukakis and Senator Al Gore,
who enjoyed the endorsement of New York Mayor Ed Koch. Koch, who campaigned
with Gore, opened up old wounds by suggesting that Jackson was anti-Semitic. "Jews would
have to be crazy to vote for Jackson,"
Koch declared. Koch and the New York
primary put race at the center of the primary campaign.
Jackson lost the state, and failed to win another primary
except for Washington, D.C. But the manner of his defeat in New York created a lasting bitterness that--not without Jackson's contrivance--carried
over to the fall. In the 1988 election, black turnout declined from 55.8
percent in 1984 to 51.5 percent. That didn't cost Dukakis the election; his
singularly inept campaign took care of that. But if Dukakis had run a better
campaign overall, the lagging turnout among blacks could have cost him
electoral votes in states like Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Illinois
that Bill Clinton would win four years hence. In the case of a photo-finish election
like we've had in 2000 and 2004, a drop in black turnout could easily cost
Democrats the win. Even if playing the race card gets Clinton the nomination, it could still cost
her the presidency.