Still, is there something unique
about Clinton
that could put other 2008 Democratic candidates at risk? The strongest claim to
that is she’s an uncommonly unifying figure--for Republicans and the right.
So while the intensity of Clinton
hatred may not multiply a voter’s vote, it could motivate citizens to engage in
other ways, such as donating to Republican candidates, walking precincts, or
persuading their friends and co-workers to vote against Clinton and other Democrats.
Such activities have the potential to alter the composition of the electorate
from the one currently being polled--with potentially damaging ramifications
for Democratic candidates in close races.
But at the heart of the Clinton drag thesis is the notion, typified by the
comments from the Missouri
and Indiana Democrats above, that she will disproportionately hurt Democrats
running in red states or red areas of blue states. This is in sharp contrast to
Obama, who it seems
like
everyday
benefits from a story about his “red state appeal,” his ability to draw in people
who typically wouldn’t vote Democratic. Let’s presume for a moment that Clinton would be a drag. What
down-ballot races would she likely affect?
Of the 11 gubernatorial races,
three Democrats (Montana’s Brian Schweitzer, New Hampshire’s John Lynch, West
Virginia’s Joe Manchin) and three Republicans (North
Dakota’s John Hoeven, Utah’s Jon
Huntsman, Vermont’s
Jim Douglas) are safe incumbents likely to be re-elected no matter what. Contests
that could be affected include the re-election bids of Washington Democrat
Christine Gregoire, Republicans Matt Blunt of Missouri
and Mitch Daniels of Indiana, and the race to
replace term-limited Democrat Mike Easley in North Carolina. Blunt’s head-to-head numbers
against expected Democratic nominee Jay Nixon are probably too lousy to matter,
but Washington and Indiana are swing states that might be influenced by the
presidential campaigns. So, at worst, Clinton
could make it slightly tougher for Democrats to re-elect Gregoire, unseat
Daniels, and replace Easley. On that latter count, the nomination of Tar Heel
native Edwards might be more helpful.