FiveThirtyEight.com

So Minnesota isn't as important as it might appear. The figures on the map show the percentage of the times in 10,000 simulated elections that a certain state was the Tipping-Point State. The conclusion: Michigan and Ohio are most likely to tip the election. Which makes sense: They are very middle-of-the-road states, not just politically but also demographically. If Barack Obama is to pull of winning Indiana or Missouri, say, he will probably have had to win Ohio and Michigan first--or likewise for John McCain in Pennsylvania.