The oral argument at the Court fell mostly along similar
ideological lines. Justices Scalia and Alito seemed inclined to accept Davis's contention that
the Millionaires' Amendment, in Scalia's words, "penalized his
speaking." Scalia pronounced himself "deeply suspicious of allowing
elections to be conducted under a regime whereby Congress levels the playing
field." Justice Ginsburg, on the other hand, objected to the
characterization of the law as burdening Davis's
right to speak. "The end result is that there will be more, not less,
speech," she said.
The Court's four liberals seem likely to vote to uphold the
law, but it's unclear whether they'll be joined by a fifth justice. Chief
Justice Roberts and Justice Kennedy questioned both attorneys aggressively, but
could end up siding with the three other conservative-leaning justices to
strike down the law, in whole or in part. Bob Bauer, a partner at Perkins Coie
and a leading Democratic campaign-finance law expert, thinks that may be the
most likely outcome. "In the Roberts
Court, I think the decision to take up this case
is probably best interpreted as a sign that there's trouble ahead for the
Millionaires' Amendment," he told me before the argument.
From a political standpoint, though, it's a bit surprising that
so many conservatives are up in arms about the Millionaires' Amendment. Given
that the Court has already upheld most of the key provisions of
McCain–Feingold, it's hard to see how Section 319 is particularly
objectionable. It imposes no new limit on campaign spending or contribution,
and in fact facilitates political speech by loosening contribution limits that
conservatives find too stifling. The assault on it seems to stem in large measure
from a sort of kitchen-sink strategy that envisions challenging as many
different parts of the law as possible, in order to, as George Will put
it, "accelerate the unraveling of McCain–Feingold."