Everybody is focused on the fact that Olympia Snowe will vote for the Baucus bill. This has obscured the news that Joe Lieberman announced today (on Don Imus, natch) that he's opposed:

IMUS: Do you support the Baucus bill?

LIEBERMAN: Not, not, no. I mean, not the way it is now.

IMUS: Ok, what about it don’t you like?

LIEBERMAN: Well, here’s my concern, as I watch the way it took shape. And it goes back to these two things we’re trying to do at once. I’m afraid that in the end, the Baucus bill is actually going to raise the price of insurance for most of the people in the country because most of the people in our country have health insurance, either private or Medicare or Medicaid or veteran’s benefits.

Think Progress, which caught this, notes that Connecticut is home to numerous insurance companies, and of course insurers have suddenly gone to war on health care reform. That may be a factor. My read is that Lieberman remains furious at the party for endorsing Democratic nominee Ned Lamont for the Senate in 2006 over Lieberman's independent candidacy. Lieberman, of course, campaigned hard against Obama in 2008, and probably would enjoy the vindication of seeing Obama's presidency fail

For months I've been predicting that the Democrats will pass health care reform because they're not going to cut their own throat. But Lieberman is an independent. A failed Democratic presidency wouldn't necessarily bring him down with it in 2012. It might even help. So I may have made a major error focusing on red state Democrats and overlooking Lieberman.

In that context, Snowe's vote is crucial.