No, Tehran is not yet about to fall to the dissidents. But the dissidents are also not about to crumble before the regime.
Talent has long ago deserted the mullahs, as the great writers and film-makers deserted the commissars.
So it's not just Kiarostami but playwrights, actors, directors, artists who have become dissidents. Public dissidents, no less. This is all treated in a dispatch by Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Saturday's Financial Times.
What we need to know is where the Obama administration stands.