The trajectory of the Senate race in Florida looks very, very bad for Charlie Crist. His opponent, Marco Rubio, has only one weakness--lack of name recognition--and that is rapidly disappearing. Rubio is perfectly in sync with the current Republican mood, and Crist, who endorsed the federal budget stimulus and favors action to stop climate change--couldn't be more out of step. The latest poll shows Crist and Rubio tied. I predict Rubio will soon pull ahead and never look back.

Indeed, I'd be somewhat surprised if Crist is even running in the primary by the time it takes place. I think his best chance of winning that Senate seat lays in pulling a Specter and running as an independent or, somehow, a Democrat. Maybe Crist stays in the GOP because he thinks the Tea Party fever will pass and a moderate like him will become acceptable again. But if he wants to hold office in 2011 he better find an alternative to the GOP.