I've been saying for a long time that Charlie Crist won't win, and probably won't even run, in the Florida GOP Senate primary. Stu Rothenberg today explains why Crist might run anyway: he's delusional:

But savvy observers cite a number of reasons why they are skeptical that Crist will switch from the GOP contest to mount an Independent bid in the fall.
First, one insider said, Crist doesn’t yet believe that he will lose the Republican race.
“Charlie still doesn’t think he’s in trouble. He thinks this is just a phase in the race, and he and his people believe that with the stuff they have [on Rubio], they can turn it around.”

My predictions of these things tend to lean heavily on the assumption that political professionals can grasp their obvious self-interest. Of course,this assumption doesn't always hold true, and one area where it tends to break down is politicians recognizing when they have no chance to win. (Remember Hillary Clinton's endless primary slog long after her fate was sealed, holding out for the appearance of the mystical "whitey" tape.)

If Crist still thinks he can really win this primary, he has until April 30th, the deadline to file for the primary.