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Dems Have Momentum -- Well, A Little Bit

Today's Washington Post poll shows that Democrats "have made modest improvements," the paper reports. Actually, the improvements are pretty major. In the last poll, Republicans led by 2 points among registered voters and a staggering 13 points among likely voters. In today's poll, Democrats lead by 4 points among registered voters, and Republicans lead by 6 points among likely voters. That's a 6-7 point gain, which is actually pretty enormous.'s survey of polls shows some narrowing over the last few weeks:

That's the good news for Democrats. The bad news is, narrowing from where? The House is naturally gerrymandered toward the GOP, which means a split national vote is likely to result in Republican control of the House. If Republicans are truly ahead by a couple points in the national vote, that means they're very likely to win the House. Now, there's some reason to think the generic ballot may underestimate the Democratic share of the House vote. But generally speaking, the story is that the Democrats are rising, but from a very low starting point.