Alex Isenstadt reports that "Republicans are growing increasingly pessimistic" that they can hold the House seat in New York's 26th district Tuesday. Looking at the latest poll, from Siena College Research Institute, it's easy to see why. Democrat Kathy Hochul leads Republican Jane Corwin 42-38. (Independent candidate Jack Davis is pulling 9%.) 73% of Hochul's supporters say they're absolutely certain to pull the lever for her, more than the 66% of Corwin supporters who say the same.

The factor that really suggests Hochul's strength is the favorability rating. Hochul has a 55% favorability rating, 38% unfavorable. Corwin is just 43% favorable, 49% unfavorable. And this suggests that Jack Davis's candidacy, while hurting Corwin, is almost certainly not the decisive factor here. When a candidate with +17 favorability runs against a candidate with a -6 favorability, the +17 candidate almost always wins, spoiler or no spoiler.