Every cycle, we hear predictions that Republican outreach to Jews will finally pay off, and that the GOP will begin making historic inroads with this Democratic constituency. This would help put Florida in the GOP column, and even narrow the margins in states like New York or New Jersey. Well, it’s definitely not happening in the year of Donald Trump.
A new survey by Democratic pollster Jim Gerstein, published today in Jewish Insider, testing Jewish voters in Florida, showed Hillary Clinton at 66 percent support, against Trump with only 23 percent. (The only group favoring Trump is the small subsample of Orthodox Jews, who pick him 66 percent to 22 percent for Clinton—while the overwhelming majority of non-Orthodox are with her, 72 percent to 22 percent.)
Furthermore, the candidates’ personal favorability ratings present an astounding contrast: Clinton is at 57 percent favorable, to only 33 percent unfavorable; Trump is at only 21 percent favorability, against an overwhelming 71 percent unfavorable. Similarly, the Democratic Party’s favorability is at 57 percent to 31 percent, while the Republican Party is at just 19 percent to 67 percent.
Thus, Trump could potentially do even worse than Mitt Romney in 2012. According to the 2012 exit poll of Florida, President Obama won the Jewish vote there with 66 percent, against 30 percent for Romney.
Years of Republican outreach to Jews, primarily characterized by hawkish support for Israel, has hit yet another wall: They nominated a guy who is in bed with white supremacists, brags about how the stores will all say “Merry Christmas” under his administration, and is reputed to have kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside.