Why the GOP’s Typical Attacks Aren’t Working on This Maine Candidate

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Inside Washington

Maine’s 2nd congressional district, covering 92 percent of the state, is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River. And right now, the largely rural, white population is getting ready to choose between two candidates: Democrat Matt Dunlap, who is a progressive and an avid hunter, or Republican and former two-term Governor Paul LePage, who once said “tell them to kiss my butt” when asked about criticism from the NAACP. 

In the race to replace Democratic Representative Jared Golden, who isn’t seeking reelection, polling is mixed. Dunlap, a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s, or DCCC, Red to Blue program supporting candidates in close races, was up six points in a University of New Hampshire poll from late September. Other surveys, however, show a dead heat or LePage slightly ahead.

On Monday, Dunlap held a health care–focused press conference, amid a cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by the Trump administration’s war on Iran and tariff policies. These issues are a particularly powerful weapon against LePage, who vetoed Medicaid expansion six times as governor and called last year’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act “the greatest thing that can happen to the Maine people” (LePage was referring to the bill’s “no tax on tips” provision, but the legislation also cut Medicaid by nearly $1 trillion).

Dunlap said that the cost of health care is one of the main issues he’s heard about from Mainers. In a conversation with The New Republic, he described a conversation with a resident who was considering selling their home to afford health care costs and another person whose insurance costs went from $560 to $2,700 per month when Affordable Care Act subsidies expired in December.

Mainers are also worried about the cost of gas and heating oil, which could hurt LePage like it hurts every other Republican candidate in 2026. Maine is more reliant on heating oil than any other state in the country, and prices have skyrocketed this year. “The first frost warning for much of the state is tomorrow night, maybe tonight,” said Mark Brewer, the chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Maine, which is located in the second district. “It’s cold here. Winters are long here.”

LePage has tried to distance himself somewhat from President Trump’s agenda. He came out against Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods and has emphasized his focus on affordability as governor. The district is historically conservative, and voted for Trump all three times he was on the ballot. But, said Amy Fried, a retired professor of political science at the University of Maine, “This district is one where people are OK with splitting their tickets.” She explained that, in election years past, it wasn’t unusual to see houses with signs for Trump, GOP Senator Susan Collins, and Democratic Representative Jared Golden together in one yard. “Or pretty much any combination you could think of,” she added.

Republicans in past elections have typically portrayed their opponents as out-of-touch leftists. So far, LePage has struggled to apply that playbook to Dunlap. “He doesn’t look like a wild-eyed radical in any way,” said Fried of Dunlap. “His personality is extremely even-keeled, and a friend of mine said the other day that he looks like an insurance salesman.” 

Asked about LePage recently telling Fox News Digital that the race is about “common sense versus crazy,” Dunlap seemed unfazed: “That’s what they say when they don’t have anything else to throw at you,” he told The New Republic. “MAGA Republicans,” Dunlap said, “are very good at demonizing and bringing up the wedge [issues] about the woke agenda and the Democratic Socialists of America.” But, he added, “I’m less susceptible to that because I hadn’t heard of the Democratic Socialists of America until we heard about the Mamdani campaign.”

Dunlap has also played up his experience as a fisherman and hunter. He’s a founding board member of the Maine Youth Fish and Game Association, and the former executive director of the Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine. One ad shows him fishing, boating, hunting, and shooting a rifle. At the end of the video, he puts down the gun and turns to the camera, saying: “I’ve always defended our Second Amendment rights, and in Congress, I’ll do the same.”

“You can’t question his bona fides on outdoors kind of stuff, or guns,” said Brewer. “He can go toe-to-toe with any Republican on those issues.” Golden, who won this district four times, is a Marine Corps veteran who has similar credibility on guns, an important issue in the district.

Both Brewer and Fried echoed what polls have suggested: This is a tight race that could go either way. Brewer said that much could hinge on the support that Dunlap gets from national Democrats in the next month. He pointed to the DCCC’s apparent hesitancy to add him to the Red to Blue program—Dunlap beat out the DCCC’s preferred candidate in June, but wasn’t added to the program until late August—as a potential issue. “The support still, to me, doesn’t seem like what it would be, or what it could be, or maybe should be in this tight of a race,” he said. “I think he could use some more money.”

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

Early voting is now in progress across multiple states, having started on Monday in Maine, California, Nebraska, and Montana (although there it’s technically called a “late registration” period for absentee voting). New Mexico, Indiana, Wyoming, and Ohio begin on Tuesday, and Arizona starts on Wednesday. Early voting and early absentee voting (differentiated by whether a ballot is cast directly into a ballot counter) has been underway in Illinois and Minnesota for weeks. Several other states join next week. Pennsylvania technically doesn’t have early in-person voting, but it actually sort of does, since you can show up, get a mail-in ballot, and then hand it back. Voting rights advocates have typically urged people to vote early if possible, in part for convenience and to avoid lines, and in part so that there’s time to sort things out if there’s a problem. On Saturday, President Trump urged Republicans to vote early or by mail—measures he has previously opposed and tried to restrict.

As key Senate and House races in Texas, Maine, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio, and more continue to dominate headlines, fewer people are watching California. But over the weekend, Bernie Sanders stopped by California’s conservative Central Valley to give Democrat Randy Villegas a boost in his attempt to unseat David Valadao in the race for California’s 22nd district. Ever since Villegas’s victory over moderate, DCCC-backed Jasmeet Bains in the primary, part of the narrative in this race has focused on whether Villegas is too far left for this “historically conservative, low-turnout area,” as CalMatters puts it. But as Sanders’s visit shows, Villegas isn’t running away from his progressivism. Dems have been fixated on beating Valadao for years, so if a progressive is finally the one to do it, it’ll be quite the story. While public polling in the 22nd has been almost nonexistent this cycle, a Democratic PAC poll in June showed Villegas up four points.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

The Natural Resources Defense Council issued a statement on Suncor v. Boulder, the big climate case the Supreme Court heard oral arguments for on Monday. Suncor Energy is asking SCOTUS to throw out the suit from the city and county of Boulder, Colorado, over the devastating damages of climate change, including from the Marshall fire in 2021. “Coal, oil, and gas companies have made trillions of dollars in profits from the sale of fuels that are driving the climate crisis. They have knowingly misled the public for decades” and lobbied to delay climate policies, said NRDC senior vice president for environmental health Matthew Tejada. “Now a staggering bill is coming due.… The fossil fuel industry has a responsibility to help pay for the damage its products have caused.”

On Wednesday at 4 p.m., the Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a webcast looking back at the anthrax postal attacks 25 years ago. Retired Maj. Gen. Paul Friedrichs will moderate a discussion between Wendi Kuhnert of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former GOP Senator Richard Burr.

On Thursday, the Institute for Policy Studies will hold its 50th annual Letelier-Moffitt Human Rights Awards, honoring Unidos MN and La Liga Sindical Obrera Mexicana for their work mobilizing “communities” to “defend their rights.” Unidos MN gained widespread recognition training people to document ICE abuses in Minnesota, and in recent months has shifted to getting out the vote for the midterm elections. La Liga, also known as the Mexican Workers’ League, is a relatively recent independent union—as opposed to the dominant so-called “protection unions” in Mexico that tend to favor employers’ interests.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Four Questions For: Aaron Eisenberg, political director for United Auto Workers Region 9A

Q: Who are you, and what are you working on right now?
A: Region 9A represents 50,000 active and retired members across New York, New England, and Puerto Rico. After notching some amazing victories in New York this year, right now, our priorities are electing our former member Troy Jackson to the U.S. Senate in Maine, training our members to run campaigns and run for office, passing local and state legislation to strengthen worker power, winning unemployment for striking workers, and making it easier to unionize.

Q: The UAW backed insurgent—and ultimately victorious—candidates like Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier in New York primaries this year, while many established unions supported their opponents. What did the UAW understand about this political moment that others missed?

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

With Trump having visited Nebraska: A Nebraska Republican senator once defended a Nixon Supreme Court nominee criticized as mediocre by saying: “Even if he were mediocre, there are a lot of mediocre judges and people and lawyers. They are entitled to a little representation, aren’t they, and a little chance?” Who was he? (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)

—Michael Tomasky

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Inside Washington

How worried should Dems be about the GOP’s huge cash advantage?

Late Wednesday night, the Senate adjourned until after the midterms, officially kicking off the final sprint of the campaign season. Republican candidates are heading home to constituents who are concerned about President Trump’s war in Iran and the high price of essentials. Democratic candidates are meanwhile heading into November with a massive cash disadvantage. The question remains: Will floods of money be enough to overcome the anger American voters are feeling?

The Democratic National Committee had $16 million in cash on hand at the end of July, compared to the Republican National Committee’s $130 million on hand. That staggering cash gap is only compounded when you factor in the DNC’s nearly $18 million in debts owed, putting them firmly in the red.

What’s more, a Supreme Court decision in June means the Republican Party cash advantage goes further than ever before; the justices lifted the cap on coordinated donations between political parties and candidates. 

Republicans’ money advantage is particularly stark in the frontline Senate races like Texas, where party money, outside PAC spending, and individual donations are fueling unprecedentedly expensive contests. By the end of September, the race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton had seen almost $259 million in total ad spending for the general election, which was already higher than the $202 million spent in 2024, when Democrat Colin Allred faced off against Senator Ted Cruz. In September alone, GOP spending groups pumped $122 million into the state to counter Talarico’s increasingly high polling numbers.

In the first three weeks of September, Republicans outspent Democrats by more than $100 million in the seven Senate races rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report. In total, AdImpact estimates that a staggering $11.6 billion will be spent during the 2026 cycle, which is more than both the 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 presidential cycle.

But it’s less clear what that spending will actually buy. “Money is important, but it’s not everything,” said Bruce Freed, the president of the Center for Political Accountability. “Public angst, deep public concern, can offset the type of money advantage—or at least mitigate some of the money advantage—that you’re seeing today.”

Some Democratic candidates are using the GOP’s cash advantage to ring alarm bells among supporters, hoping to pull in cash from small-dollar donors. “The GOP outspending us 3-to-1 is working, and now this race is within their reach,” a fundraising email from Chris Pappas’s campaign on Thursday read. Pappas is running for Senate in New Hampshire against Republican John Sununu. The race is surprisingly tight, experts told The New Republic in early September, and new forecasting confirms it: The Cook Political Report shifted the race toward Republicans—from “lean D” to “toss-up”—on September 15.

Senate hopefuls aren’t the only ones facing high levels of spending. A handful of House races have racked up massive price tags too. All in all, the GOP has spent or booked $454 million on House races to Democrats’ $381 million. In swing districts, that spending disparity is heightened. In New York’s 17th congressional district, GOP Representative Mike Lawler has benefited from $20 million in spending since the start of August, compared to a meager $3.8 million for Cait Conley, his Democratic opponent.

The real impact of Republicans’ cash advantage will only be clear when polls close on November 3. But until then, we have one clear indicator that money might not be everything in 2026: the generic ballot. And signs point to a potential tsunami for Democrats. In August, Democrats had an eight-point lead on Emerson College Polling’s generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters might vote for, regardless of the specific candidates. Come September, that lead widened to a whopping 11 points.

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

A new poll shows Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in a dead heat with her Republican challenger, John Braun, in Washington’s swingy 3rd congressional district. Interestingly, 11 percent of likely voters still appeared to be undecided in the survey, commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting. Gluesenkamp Perez has broken with Democrats on more than one occasion recently to advance a GOP agenda that would have otherwise failed—a move that embarrassed and angered other Dems but was widely seen as reflecting her challenging reelection position. A lot of her home-district Democratic voters, however, are also frustrated with Gluesenkamp Perez: 16.7 percent of them voted for progressive challenger Brent Hennrich in the August primary.  

On the other hand, The Washington Post reviews the prospects of Scott Colom, running for Senate in Mississippi against Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. It’s a “long shot” in a state Trump won by 23 points, write Dan Merica and Gregory S. Schneider, but “top Democratic officials and donors [are] increasingly hopeful that he could pull off the inconceivable,” given “this year’s poor political environment for Republicans.”

The DataOne data center in Vineland, New Jersey, that will reportedly be supplying Microsoft with computing power may have emitted 140 tons of nitrogen oxides over the course of “nearly a year before state regulators stepped in,” Floodlight’s Evan Simon reports at The Guardian. This is a follow-up to a piece from last week in which Simon and Brad Racino revealed that the data center had been running “at least 45 gas generators” without a permit. Nitrogen oxides have been linked to respiratory problems and heart attacks in humans, and Rutgers University’s Xiaomeng Jin calculates that the data center ranks as one of “the state’s top five NOx polluters of 2025.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

In case you missed it: Data for Progress released a new survey on American social activity this week, and the results are a mix of sobering and fascinating. From 1995 to 2026, the percentage of people who say they’ve entertained at home in the past year dropped from 88 percent to 67 percent, while the percentage of people who say they’ve finished reading a book in the same time period dropped from 80 percent to 62 percent. But staying late at work has dropped too, while going to a concert or an exercise class has gone up. Going out to breakfast, giving or attending a dinner party, picnics, communal worship, clubs, and a class are all way down, while internet use, unsurprisingly, has skyrocketed.  

“Can a clean economy be built at the speed and scale that this moment demands?” At the Center for American Progress, Jessica Keller reviews the “lessons” from New York City’s Climate Week in late September. No real surprises here: Keller highlights the importance of “forward-looking policies that invest in emerging technology and industrial emissions reductions,” union jobs, and “clean, abundant power” that doesn’t increase households’ utility bills. But all of this, Keller writes, requires “bold, progressive leadership.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Good Week: James Talarico

Democrats have been disappointed before in Texas, but reports keep rolling in suggesting that Talarico is defying all expectations. He’s outraised Republican opponent Ken Paxton in rich Republican neighborhoods, Newsweek reported on Wednesday. New data seems to show that he has erased Trump’s 2024 gains with Latino voters, TNR’s Greg Sargent observes. And crucially, an Axios analysis of 2026 versus the 2018 Beto O’Rourke flameout shows 2026 looking much more favorable for Democrats in Texas on several key metrics, especially based on primary turnout.

Bad Week: Eric Schmitt

No need to belabor this one: You really don’t want the first reports that you might be on the 2028 presidential ticket to hit the internet at the same time as viral videos of you screwing up sports team names and getting owned by Amy Klobuchar in a congressional hearing.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

The Oval Office didn’t exist when the White House was built in the 1790s. Under what president was the first Oval Office built? Hint: It coincided with the construction of the West Wing—in other words, at a time when the size of the president’s staff began to grow. (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)

—Michael Tomasky

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Inside Washington

On Wednesday, a party line vote of 47–41 confirmed Keith Sonderling as the head of the Department of Labor. To Democrats, it’s one step closer to advancing the Trump-era Labor Department’s anti-worker agenda.

Sonderling has served as acting secretary of labor since April, when President Donald Trump’s then–Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned in disgrace amid allegations of—among other things—travel fraud and creating a toxic workplace environment. (In September, the Labor Department’s Office of Inspector General released a detailed report confirming the misconduct.)

Since Sonderling took over, he’s taken a number of actions that Democrats see as anti-worker. In May, the department rescinded an overtime rule adopted under former President Joe Biden. The department is currently trying to rescind a different Biden-era rule that addresses the classification of independent contractors. When Sonderling sat before the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, or HELP, in July, Democratic senators grilled him on these issues and other controversies, such as Trump’s purge of federal workers and the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer in August 2025 after a weak jobs report came out.

“You are not a bystander to this administration’s anti-worker policies and agenda,” Senator Patty Murray of Washington told Sonderling at the time.

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, who also sits on HELP, told The New Republic on Wednesday that he wasn’t impressed with Sonderling and didn’t get the sense that he would steer the department away from its overall anti-worker bias under Trump. “I’ve been very disappointed with the first flameout of the first secretary,” said Kaine. “I think the Trump administration’s Department of Labor is not really great for labor or for working people. I think it’s like a second secretary of commerce rather than a secretary of labor.”

Senators are particularly concerned about how the potential secretary of labor would approach AI in the workplace in a moment of skyrocketing anxiety about AI and AI-related job replacement. “Part of what we want to see from them is understanding what the real impact of this is on job loss [and] job transitions,” said Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware, who served as her state’s secretary of labor in 1998. Data on how AI is affecting the workforce have been slim, and some lawmakers are trying to push the BLS to collect more. “How we do things at the Department of Labor needs to be modernized” to meet the AI moment, Blunt Rochester said. Meanwhile, Kaine told The New Republic on Wednesday that he wants to see the department focus on apprenticeship programs and workforce training for workers who could be affected by AI. 

So far, the Department of Labor has done a handful of things to address AI. In his HELP committee hearing, Sonderling told Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri that the department had asked the BLS to examine data on AI and the workforce, but it appears that little has yet emerged from that effort. The department launched a “Make America AI-Ready” mini course, ostensibly to teach AI literacy to workers. Labor advocates were skeptical: “Does this [training] make workers’ jobs better or safer? Will it help people who want to find a job access high-quality, union jobs?” Lauren McFerran, executive director of AFL-CIO’s Tech Institute and a former chair of the National Labor Relations Board, said to NPR in April. 

There are plenty of reasons why Senate Democrats weren’t eager to confirm Sonderling. His lukewarm response to current AI concerns appears to be just another drop in the bucket.

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

The rush to enact statewide policies to lower fuel prices continues. A limited rundown of some of the happenings this week: In Indiana, Republican Governor Mike Braun on Wednesday extended a suspension on the state’s gas use and excise taxes through November 4, and suspended restrictions on what dyed diesel could be used for on farms. Only two days earlier, Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom ended summer gas-blend requirements over a month ahead of schedule, while Republican Georgia Governor Brian Kemp temporarily suspended the state gas tax and Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a 30-day disaster declaration in order to suspend various diesel restrictions on Texas roads. Ohio lawmakers voted Wednesday to suspend the state gas tax for 90 days, which both Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy have said they support. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that Wall Street banks’ estimates for gas prices in the coming months have risen, given the dwindling chances of a peace deal with Iran. Republicans are increasingly worried that voter frustration over gas prices could fuel the so-called “blue wave” in November.

Elsewhere:

• Amid a wave of optimistic analysis and polling for Dems nationwide, Chris Pappas’s Senate race against John Sununu in New Hampshire continues to look a bit dicey. Pappas tends to maintain a narrow lead in most polls but is being wildly outspent. AP reporters Steve Peoples, Holly Ramer, and Steven Sloan see it as a sign of broader issues: “For all the Democrats’ confidence, the party’s brand remains deeply unpopular and fundraising is lagging,” they write. “The Republican advantage isn’t as egregious in New Hampshire as some other states, but it is significant. AdImpact finds that Republicans are outspending Democrats in New Hampshire $41.2 million to $35.4 million statewide.” The TNR Blue Book’s Emma Janssen previously reported on the jitters surrounding this race back in early September. 

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

Reviewing the new personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, released Wednesday, Groundwork Collaborative chief economist Breyon Williams says in a statement on the organization’s website that “the bleak economic picture offers little hope for Americans desperate for relief.” The report showed PCE inflation increasing 3.4 percent from August 2025 to August 2026, with the economy growing at a 2.4 percent rate so far this year.

The Natural Resources Defense Council released a statement on Wednesday coinciding with court day for the water utilities challenging the Biden EPA’s rule requiring the removal of lead pipes. “Water utilities fighting the lead rule are on the wrong side of history,” says NRDC senior strategic director for health Erik D. Olson. Members of Earthjustice, the Newburgh Clean Water Project, and the Sierra Club chimed in, as well, with NCWP’s Gabrielle Burton-Hill calling the case “outrageous and disappointing” and others pointing out the vast number of households and children that the rule will help protect from lead poisoning if allowed to continue.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Here’s Why That’s B.S.

Watch TNR’s Edie Olmsted dive into Senator Eric Schmitt’s bizarre faceplant in the Jack Smith hearing this week—all while Axios was reporting “buzz” that he might be JD Vance’s running mate in 2028.

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

An actually smart Missouri senator, a Democrat, was known as a vocal foe of Joseph McCarthy; was the first secretary of the Air Force; and refused to speak to segregated audiences in the Southern U.S. during a brief presidential run in 1960. Who was he? (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in Tuesday’s newsletter.)

—Michael Tomasky

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Inside Washington

Katie Hobbs is holding the line in Arizona. Now, she’s under attack.

With midterms that could shift control of Congress rapidly approaching, the gubernatorial election in Arizona might not be high on the average Democrat’s radar. But incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is facing a potentially hard race in a state Democrats don’t want to lose. 

Hobbs is “the person who is keeping the legislature at bay,” explained Thomas Volgy, a professor at the University of Arizona and the former mayor of Tucson. The governor’s veto power is currently the last line of defense against right-wing legislation passed by the Republican-controlled state Senate and House of Representatives. On one Friday in late June, for example, Hobbs vetoed 88 bills, including a bill that would have banned the use of diversity, equity, and inclusion measures in hiring and another that would allow people who detransition to sue the medical providers who aided in their gender transition care. As of mid-July, Hobbs had signed 993 bills into law and vetoed 541 since assuming office. “Her responsibility as a Democratic governor is to make sure the legislature does no harm,” Volgy added.

Since she took office in 2023, Hobbs has also presided over a number of crucial policy fights, and is making the pitch that she needs four more years to see them through. 

“In my second term, I will continue to prioritize lowering costs, creating good-paying jobs, protecting water, and investing in public education,” Hobbs wrote in a statement to The New Republic. “I want to put Prop 123 on the ballot to secure much-needed support for Arizona’s public schools without raising taxes, while continuing to crack down on waste, fraud, and abuse in the ESA program,” she said, referring to a proposition to raise money for public education and the state’s “Empowerment Scholarship Account,” or ESA program, which is a school choice funding program.

Arizona’s ESA program was established in 2011 and became universal in 2022, giving students public funding to spend on private education. The program is, unsurprisingly, controversial among state Democrats. “Enacting meaningful reform to Arizona’s out-of-control ESA program is critical,” said Stacy Pearson, a state Democratic strategist and co-founder of Lumen Strategies. “We’ve got districts across the state closing public schools” because state funds are used for the ESA program instead.

Arizona is one of seven states in the Colorado River Basin. The next negotiations for water rights in the region will take place in 2028. The governor plays an active role in those negotiations, directs the state Department of Water Resources, and, of course, holds veto power over legislation that could threaten the state’s water supply. As governor, Hobbs has focused on conserving the state’s groundwater resources, even if it means blocking housing development in some cases. Early in her term, she canceled the land leases of a Saudi Arabian farming company, Fondomonte, which her administration said was excessively pumping groundwater to grow alfalfa. While Hobbs has focused on conservation, Biggs is a proponent of desalination efforts, which Hobbs hasn’t focused on as governor. 

Polling throughout the summer showed Hobbs leading her opponent, Representative Andy Biggs. Some of those leads were more significant than others: In a mid-August poll, she was up 15 points, while a different poll conducted at the same time showed her only up two points. But public polling has been limited since mid-August, and there was a significant development at the end of that month.

Hobbs, who only won her 2022 election by some 18,000 votes, has been plagued by an investigation into alleged pay-to-play scandal: a foster care provider who donated hundreds of thousands to her campaign, and was subsequently awarded a rate increase by the state. On August 21 this year, the state attorney general announced that there was no evidence that Hobbs broke the law, and declined to prosecute her. Though the attorney general’s investigation absolved Hobbs of any blame, Republican-aligned offices and groups like the auditor general’s office are conducting their own reviews. Republicans in the state house hired a Trump-aligned attorney to investigate Hobbs, and Republican lawmakers issued subpoenas to Hobbs, the attorney general, and others in mid-September. (One of those lawmakers, State Senator Jake Hoffman, stepped down from leading the investigation after The Arizona Republic raised questions about over $1 million received by his political consulting businesses to help elect Biggs.)

Hobbs’s campaign has argued that Republicans are using the now-closed investigation to smear Hobbs ahead of the election. “With just 27 days until early voting begins, it’s no surprise partisan extremists are launching desperate political stunts,” Michael Beyer, Hobbs’s communications director, wrote recently in response to attacks by Biggs.

Volgy doesn’t think the investigation into Hobbs is the biggest factor in this race. “The driving force behind this election is Donald Trump, and he’s doing very badly in the state,” he said, citing the Iran war and rising costs. President Trump has a net approval rating of -19 points in the state, an all-time low for the president.

“Getting reelected in a red state is going to give her an opportunity,” Pearson said, to do more of what she’s already been doing. “To just shut the system down until meaningful reform is on her desk.”

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

President Trump’s announcement on Monday of a plan to build a $15 billion steel mill in eastern Iowa comes amid increasingly bad numbers for him in that state. Last week, a Marist University poll not only found Democrat Josh Turek up eight points against Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s Senate race—it also found that 43 percent of respondents “say their congressional vote is mostly a vote against President Trump.” The same poll also found Democrat Rob Sand up a shocking 12 points against Republican Zach Lahn in the gubernatorial race. Voters disapproved of Trump 58 percent to 41 percent.  

News outlets on Monday widely gestured to the midterm context in reporting the steel mill news. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who’s currently either neck and neck with or slightly trailing Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, announced mid-Monday that she’d be joining Trump for the announcement event—and added that the steel mill would be located in Lee County (part of her district). The Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel on Monday pointed readers to prior coverage “about a mysterious company buying up land in Lee County,” as well as a reported “special legislative session to address a tax incentive package for this deal,” explicitly pitched as coming “*before* the midterms.”  

Whether this gambit will pay off amid voter frustration over a lot of other problems, though, remains to be seen. The Iowa Capital Dispatch reports Hinson taking heat from voters frustrated over high fuel prices and Trump’s war on Iran. Meanwhile, Trump is continuing his vendetta against the Des Moines Register over a poll published shortly before the 2024 presidential election. After a judge threw out Trump’s lawsuit against the Register last week, a member of the president’s legal team told Politico that they’d be taking the case to the Iowa Supreme Court.

Elsewhere:

• The Guardian reports shocking findings from a Center for Biological Diversity review of federal records: Almost 25 percent of continental U.S. rivers contain dangerous levels of the herbicide atrazine, a potent hormone disruptor known to “chemically castrate” frogs, which can damage human reproductive systems as well as numerous other organs. (Unsurprisingly, it’s especially hazardous to developing fetuses and children.) Read Tom Perkins’s full report for more on how atrazine became so widely used in the U.S., despite being banned in dozens of other countries.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

Tuesday at noon, New America hosts “Power at the Polls: Confronting Basic Barriers to Accessible Democracy,” a virtual discussion about factors jeopardizing voting rights for Americans with disabilities. Speakers will include Rebecca Cokley, Mia Ives-Rublee, Dom Kelly, Lee Drutman, Asim Dietrich, and Sydney Saubestre. 

Tuesday at 1:30 p.m., the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution hosts a forum on “meeting long-term care needs for an aging United States.” Panelists will include Maggie Elehwany of Argentum, Nicole Howell from the National Council on Aging, Haeyoung Yoon of the National Domestic Workers Alliance, Stanford economics professor Neale Mahoney, University Hospital CEO Carole Johnson, the Urban Institute’s Tisamarie Sherry, Jonathan Cohn of The Bulwark, and Brookings’s Aviva Aron-Dine and Tara Watson.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Four Questions For: Lindsay Owens, president and CEO of the nonprofit advocacy group Groundwork Collaborative

Q: How did your new book come about?

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

On this day in 1962, President Kennedy authorized the use of federal troops to integrate what public university? (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)

—Michael Tomasky

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.

Inside Washington

The FDA’s Overton window problem

On Thursday, Republican Senator Susan Collins, a self-described abortion rights supporter, asked not a single question about abortion during the hearing for Food and Drug Administration commissioner nominee Heidi Overton. That, along with testy exchanges with Democrats over Overton’s vaccine views, is likely to be the primary takeaway from the confirmation hearing.

But while Overton’s past comments on mifepristone and vaccines receive top billing, less attention is being given to the larger dysfunction that has plagued the FDA since Trump’s second inauguration. 

Democratic senators, unlike Collins, took a strong line on abortion on Thursday. “I am not going to support someone who doesn’t support a woman’s right to make her own choices,” Senator Patty Murray of Washington, who sits on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, told The New Republic. If confirmed to lead the FDA, Overton will inherit an ongoing study of mifepristone’s safety, which could be an opening step for the Trump administration to restrict its use. In her past role at the MAGA-aligned America First Policy Institute, Overton wrote an article claiming that medication-assisted abortion is “dangerous to women.” On Thursday, she dodged questions about whether she believes mifepristone is safe, instead saying that she agrees with “the statutory standards of safety and efficacy” set by the FDA.

Vaccines were another major issue during the hearing, particularly because of Overton’s association with Trump’s and Health Secretary RFK Jr.’s rhetoric on vaccine safety. Last month, Overton stood beside the two men when they suggested that combination vaccines could cause autism. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire pressed Overton on vaccines, asking her if she believed Trump could “ever be wrong about something.” Overton didn’t answer the question directly, instead saying that she “had the privilege of working for the president.”

Overton also attended Trump’s Oval Office signing of an executive order to reduce the childhood vaccination schedule and split the MMR vaccine into multiple shots. During the event, Trump also called the MMR vaccine “potentially quite lethal.” Overton denied that the vaccine is lethal at Thursday’s hearing, but that disavowal came too late for some senators. “She should have corrected the president in public when he was putting out bad information about the efficacy of vaccines,” said Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, who sits on the HELP Committee. “When he said it was ‘lethal,’ she should have corrected him right there.”

“She seems like a very nice person, but I don’t think she’s the person who should hold that job,” Senator Bernie Sanders, the ranking member of HELP, told The New Republic. “We need people who have the courage to stand up to President Trump. I’m not sure that’s her.” 

Overton stands to take over a deeply troubled federal agency. The FDA’s current crisis began early on in President Trump’s second term, when nearly one-fifth of the agency’s workforce (around 4,000 employees) left due to firings or buyouts. Since then, a number of high-profile foodborne illnesses and recalls have popped up across the country, which some experts and politicians have suggested could have been exacerbated by cuts at the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Staff turnover has been rampant at the FDA. In 2025, around 90 percent of senior FDA personnel reportedly left the agency, leaving just three experienced senior leaders in place. Since Trump’s inauguration, the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, which focuses on the development of vaccines and drugs for rare diseases, has had six different directors. In May, the then head of the FDA, Marty Makary, resigned after just a year at the helm. His tenure was marked by political interference into the FDA’s decision-making. Anti-abortion groups criticized Makary for not advancing the review of mifepristone, while e-cigarette company executives complained to Trump that Makary wasn’t approving their products fast enough. The vaccine chief under Makary, Vinay Prasad, left the agency twice after right-wing activists like Laura Loomer and biotech executives alike criticized him.

In addition to their concerns about abortion and vaccines, some Democratic senators worry that Overton would continue this pattern of politicization within the agency. “I just don’t think [Overton is] committed to ending political interference in the FDA decision-making process,” Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, who sits on the HELP Committee, told The New Republic. “She’s been given that job specifically to protect political interference.”

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

The charter companies running ICE deportation flights out of Akron-Canton Regional Airport, the Ohio Capital Journal reports, owe the airport a combined $46,513 for landings between the end of April and early September—of which $33,927 is past due. In recent weeks, “Akron-Canton has become a Great Lakes hub,” reports Doug Oplinger, who has been staking out the airport while scrutinizing flight records. He finds “planes landing here in the evening, often from a major ICE prison and deportation center in Alexandria, Louisiana, and on occasion directly from Tapachula, Mexico, the end point for many of the deportees.” Oplinger writes that attempts to get comment from the companies involved, ICE media relations, and multiple other parties have been “largely unanswered.”

In case you missed it: The Arizona Republic’s Stacey Barchenger went hunting for the alleged Democrats supporting Republican Andy Biggs against Katie Hobbs in the Arizona governor’s race—the ones mentioned in a slew of “Democrats for Biggs” signs that have proliferated recently. The signs, she notes, are paid for by conservative group Turning Point USA—the late Charlie Kirk’s group. “Biggs couldn’t name a Democrat who supports his campaign—but he said they are out there” and referred Barchenger to “whoever’s putting up those signs.” Barchenger duly contacted Turning Point spokespeople, who “did not respond to multiple questions about … whether any coalition of Democrats backing Republican Andy Biggs for governor exists.” Read the full story for all this and significant further shenanigans.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

Public Citizen publishes a statement on the report recently released by Senators Chuck Schumer and Sheldon Whitehouse on the fossil fuel industry’s influence in the Trump administration. The report highlighted, among other things, the policy “wish lists” the industry compiled for the administration, many items of which were quickly enacted. “Every American family struggling with high costs is suffering because of the corrupt relationship between Donald Trump and the fossil fuel industry,” says Public Citizen’s climate program director, David Arkush, in the group’s statement.

Friday, September 25, at noon, the Roosevelt Institute holds its Fall Policy Summit with Roosevelt Network members “fighting for academic freedom, democracy, and LGBTQ+ rights; working with local organizations to explore how city governments can better support workers; and traveling across their states to hear directly from farmers about the economy they want to see.” Interested viewers can join on Zoom to “hear from Network members about what they’re working on and how they’re turning ideas into action.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Good Week: Abdul El-Sayed

The Democratic candidate for Senate in Michigan got two new polls this week offering him good news, and boy is this welcome for Democrats. A Suffolk poll found El-Sayed leading GOPer Mike Rogers by 47–40. And the gold-standard New York Times survey found him up by 49–44. Notably, the latter found him clearing 40 percent with working-class whites, a key threshold. With many analysts wondering if he’ll win enough of this demographic to prevail in the Midwestern state, all this will help quiet Democratic panic about El-Sayed’s chances.

Bad Week: Troy Jackson

The aforementioned gold-standard Times poll also finds this week that Maine Senator Susan Collins is leading her Democratic challenger by three points, 49–46. What really jumps out is that Jackson’s support among non-college voters is an abysmal 34 percent. True, a recent CNN poll showed Jackson up three points, but taken altogether, this is way too close for comfort in such a pro-Democratic national environment and in a state that Trump lost by seven points in 2024. What’s more, the CNN poll also finds Jackson at 38 percent with non-college voters, suggesting this group is a real problem for him. That’s especially noteworthy, since one of this fifth-generation logger’s biggest political selling points is his roots in the rural working class.

—Greg Sargent

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

Tomorrow, Donald Trump will be in Knoxville for the Tennessee-Texas game. Some years ago, a president infamously waded into a heated debate over who was the number one team in college football. This was back when presidents didn’t offer their opinions on every topic under the sun, and it was a big controversy. Whose fans did he please, and whose did he infuriate? (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in Tuesday’s newsletter.)

—Michael Tomasky