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There’s a significant hitch to Marco Rubio’s big plan to beat Donald Trump.

Rubio, taking a page from the Rudy Giuliani playbook of winning presidential primaries, has telegraphed that the turning point in the race will come when his home state of Florida votes on March 15. The fatal flaw in this strategy is that Trump is leading Rubio in Florida by a lot: 44-28 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

The Rubio campaign is having none of it. Here’s Rubio adviser Todd Harris:

But the Quinnipac poll is hardly an outlier. As Jonathan Cohn observes, it is line with many other polls when it comes to Trump’s level of support. If anything, the Quinnipiac poll may be overstating Rubio’s support. Perhaps it’s time for Plan B?