You are using an outdated browser.
Please upgrade your browser
and improve your visit to our site.
Skip Navigation

Does Donald Trump have any path to victory?

Joe Raedle/Getty

The election is two weeks from today. That is both a very long time—if either campaign has juicy opposition research, it can still be dropped for significant effect—and no time at all. Presidential races rarely change shape dramatically in the final two weeks and right now the 2016 election looks like it’s going to end in an electoral vote landslide for Hillary Clinton.

Clinton has many paths to the White House, and Trump really only has one: He has to win Ohio and Florida (Clinton can win either), along with North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and Maine. Historically speaking, that’s not an unreasonable path for a Republican nominee—George W. Bush won all of those states but Maine in 2000 and 2004. The problem is that Trump is losing every single one of those states in most polls right now. Clinton has maintained a steady lead in Florida since the first debate. Ohio is the closest of the group, but it’s basically a push right now, with a slight edge being given to Clinton. In a New York Times poll released today, Clinton leads in North Carolina by seven points and has an insane 25-point advantage among early voters, which suggests that her get-out-the-vote apparatus is going to wipe the floor with Trump’s.

A lot can happen in the next two weeks. But early voting is already underway and Trump’s only path to the White House may already be blocked.