James Talarico may or may not win the Senate race in Texas. But here’s something we can say right now: Given how close Talarico is coming in this red state after running such an overtly pro-immigrant campaign—which Talarico has done on and off from the outset—it should shape how Democrats handle the immigration issue going forward pretty dramatically.
There’s a paradox at the center of Talarico’s spirited bid. He’s running in a state that Donald Trump carried by 14 points in 2024. Yet he’s actually leaned into the moral issues around immigration more aggressively than most other Democrats running in tough areas have this cycle, despite it being widely touted as Trump’s “strength.” Democrats can learn from this—and not in the ways they might think.
Last week, during extended remarks in Austin, Talarico seized on the news that ICE shot a local Venezuelan immigrant in the back—he’s now in detention—to make an expansive moral case that immigration is good for our country. He called for “more legal pathways” for immigrants to come here and “live the American dream,” which he said would make our country “richer and stronger.”
In those remarks, Talarico called for those broadened legal pathways on top of a path to citizenship for longtime undocumented residents and increased border security. In short, Talarico called for more legal immigration, said this would benefit our country, and even declared: “I think most Texans support all of those goals.”
Lurking behind this declaration—that a majority of Texans support all those things—is a genuine theory of the case. It’s that Trump’s agenda—the masked ICE thugs snatching grandmas and children, the killings of U.S. citizens, the overt white nationalism in official government communications—has opened the door to creating a new pro-immigrant consensus, even in a place Trump won overwhelmingly. By delivering such a message in Texas so frontally, Talarico is already on the road to accomplishing something potentially seismic.
Here’s why. After Trump’s 2024 victory, some observers suggested his gains among Hispanics in the Latino-heavy Rio Grande Valley, along the Mexican border, suggested he’d forged a new, multiracial working-class coalition. In that narrative, even Latino U.S. citizens were gravitating toward Trump’s anti-immigrant restrictionism, in a durable realignment that would change U.S. politics.
But now that dream seems to be coming apart. This is very visible in the Texas Senate race, where Trump is badly alienating Latinos—mostly because of the economy but also due to immigration—and leading them to support Talarico.
I’ve obtained new data that drives the point home. In August, Texas Southern University polled three competitive House districts in Texas—the 15th, 28th, and 34th. These Latino-heavy districts, which abut the border’s southernmost portions, all swung hard toward Trump, heavily driving the “realignment” narrative. Yet the poll found the Democratic challenger leading the GOP incumbent in the 15th by five points and the Democratic incumbents leading their GOP challengers in the 28th and 34th by 11 and three points, respectively.
Here’s where it gets interesting. I asked for the survey’s breakdown of how Latinos in the districts view Trump on these issues. The answer: In Texas’s 15th, only 36 percent of Latinos approve of Trump on immigration and border security, while 61 percent disapprove—25 points underwater. In the 28th, that’s 36–60, or 24 points underwater. And in the 34th, that’s 36–62, or 26 points underwater.
“They thought they were getting a secure border and public safety, not the deportation of friends, co-workers, fellow parishioners, and relatives,” Mark Jones, who co-directs the Texas Southern University poll, told me, speaking about Texas Latinos.
Talarico’s campaign sees the Rio Grande Valley as critical. He rolled out his immigration plan there, and he’s done around a dozen events in the region. The region’s turn against Trump helps explain why Talarico’s getting around 60 percent support from Latinos statewide—a huge turnaround from 2024, when Trump won 55 percent of them.
In one sense, these numbers are not good enough. Political consultant Mike Madrid, an expert on the Latino vote, argues that this might not be happening without the bad economy. He notes that Trump’s ability to still reach the mid-30s with Latinos on immigration—despite all he’s done—suggests Democrats must do more to turn them into a pro-Dem voting bloc, rather than a swing constituency.
But this also suggests a big opening. Trump has thrown away his 2024 gains with these voters, meaning Democrats can try to seal the deal long-term. In redder areas, they can lead with the economy and border security, and pair that with a welcoming message for immigrants, which is now sellable even in red areas due to Trump’s savage inhumanity. “Democrats have been given a golden opportunity, a second chance to reconstitute a working-class coalition,” Madrid says.
It should also be acknowledged that one reason for Talarico’s gains is likely that Talarico has distanced himself from Joe Biden’s immigration record, repeatedly declaring that Biden failed on the border. Talarico’s plan is also heavy on adding border security. “That’s where the conversation begins,” Madrid notes.
Talarico alludes to this himself with one of his frequent formulations: “Our border should be like a front porch—it should have a welcome mat out front and a lock on the door.” The “lock” is important. But let’s not neglect the “welcome mat” part.
After all, Talarico’s plan calls for ICE to deprioritize the removals of longtime undocumented residents while focusing on dangerous criminals. It calls for a path to citizenship for many undocumented groups, though it’s not the large-scale amnesty that Senate Democrats passed in 2013 (which the GOP House killed). It would create new legal pathways for immigrants to come here and work. It would maintain channels for asylum-seekers and refugees while calling for more judges to adjudicate such claims faster.
It’s hard to evaluate this without more details. Would it mean going back to Biden-era levels of refugee admission? A resumption of Temporary Protected Status for groups facing horrific home-country conditions, which Trump has largely killed? Tougher standards for achieving asylum here than under previous Democratic presidents? Talarico’s campaign has not elaborated.
But in its broad strokes, this is a humane, pro-immigrant agenda. Talarico’s baseline values hold that immigration is good, it enriches our country in innumerable ways, and we should facilitate and encourage it, including among those seeking humanitarian sojourn here.
True, if there is space for this message to resonate now, it may be because Trump mostly closed down the border, creating the impression that undocumented immigration has been “solved.” Which might mean that in difficult territory, Democrats now have to convey—as Talarico does—that they won’t allow a reversion to the Biden-era status quo ante. Explaining how to accomplish this while rebuilding a far more humane system is a genuinely difficult challenge.
But still, the ingredients are coming together for a big Democratic reset. “Most Americans are pro-immigrant,” Talarico said during the Austin event. “Throughout American history, immigrants have always made us richer and stronger.” He rejected the idea that “you’ve got to pick between security and welcoming the stranger,” stressing: “We don’t have to pick between those things.”
Talarico, who regularly speaks about his faith, is consciously using biblical language here. The duty to “welcome the stranger” is deeply felt in American life, as Bill Kristol has argued, and not just as a religious duty. The suffering and injustice borne by the immigrants all around us—our “neighbors,” as Talarico put it—have become crushingly omnipresent facts of life as the banal cruelties of Late Stage Trumpism relentlessly grind us down.
But win or lose, Talarico has already demonstrated that even in deep-red Texas, people want something higher, something better. We all do. Democrats: Don’t hold back. Speak to this still-flickering sense of hopefulness forthrightly and unflinchingly.
