The Big Question in Iowa’s Senate Race

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Inside Washington

The big question in Iowa’s Senate race

Is Iowa still a swing state? That’s what Democrats are testing in the increasingly red state’s races for governor, U.S. Senate, and four House seats this fall. Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for a vital U.S. Senate seat, is hoping to prove that a Democrat can still win in Iowa. But he faces an uphill battle.

Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist basketball player who has served in the state legislature since 2023, is facing Ashley Hinson, a former TV journalist and current member of the House of Representatives, a role she’s held since 2021. The two are vying to replace retiring GOP Senator Joni Ernst. 

Both Turek and Hinson list affordability and agricultural policy high up on their policy platforms. Turek wants to raise the minimum wage, set term limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices, and address cancer-causing water pollution—a serious problem in Iowa that has been linked to agricultural runoff. Hinson’s platform includes limiting regulations for family farms, moving federal agencies out of D.C. and into the states, and cutting government waste. Both candidates want to see Congress pass a farm bill, and Turek says he wants it to include anti-monopoly provisions and a “right to repair.”

In the last decade, Iowa’s status as a swing state has become increasingly debatable. The state has elected Republican governors since 2010, and both Senate seats have been held by Republicans since 2015, when Ernst was elected to serve alongside long-serving Senator Chuck Grassley.

President Donald Trump won the state in 2016 by over 9 percent, a massive 15-point rightward swing from the 2012 election. He then won Iowa by 8 percent in 2020, and by over 13 points in 2024.

Turek hopes his “prairie populist” vibe, which has won him elections before, will help him flip the Senate seat. In the state legislature, he represents the 20th district, which includes his hometown of Council Bluffs. He won the seat by just six votes in 2022 and 561 votes in 2024—even though Trump won the broader Pottawattamie County, which includes the 20th district, by 17 percent in 2020 and 20 percent in 2024. 

“When I went door to door, crawling up stairs and dragging my wheelchair behind me, the first question people always asked was ‘how in the world did you get up here?’ I would tell them ‘I crawled up here, because that’s how important your vote is to me. I think more than anything, people want their representatives to be willing to listen and fight for them, not for the billionaires and the large corporations,” Turek said in a written statement to The New Republic.

Turek will need independent voters this November. According to a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, independent voters break for Turek by an 11-point margin. But he still trails Hinson in the poll, with support from 45 percent of respondents to her 48 percent. Six percent of respondents remained undecided.

Some political analysts think Turek’s ability to appeal to independents and conservatives still won’t be enough. “If a Republican is disaffected this year, they’re a heck of a lot more likely to not show up or to skip over various offices on the ballot than they are to vote for a Democrat,” said Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, in a speech at Des Moines’s Drake University in late July. “We’ll have to wait and see whether the Iowa Senate flips, but I’d give it probably a one in four chance.”

The Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as “leans Republican,” and Cook himself said that he believes Iowa hasn’t been a swing state “for a long time.”

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

The Ohio Capital Journal has published a trio of pieces reviewing candidates’ data center positions in three key races: gubernatorial (Democrat Amy Acton versus Republican Vivek Ramaswamy), Senate (Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted), and the 9th congressional district (Marcy Kaptur versus Derek Merrin). Ohio passed tax breaks for data centers in 2017, and now ranks sixth in the nation for current and planned data centers. All three races are believed to be a dead heat, although there’s very little public polling on the 9th. While data center backlash transcends partisan divides, the pieces show that, across the board, Democratic candidates in Ohio seem to be adopting a more aggressive regulatory position. 

One of the water utilities recently targeted in suspected Iranian cyberattacks on the U.S. water supply, The Washington Post notes, was in western Arkansas—one of three states that sued the Environmental Protection Agency under Joe Biden to prevent it from instituting a requirement to harden water systems against cyberattacks. “Had the EPA rule been in place, some experts say, the Arkansas utility or others like it might have been spared,” write Ellen Nakashima and Amy B. Wang

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

The Open Markets Institute’s Center for Media and Digital Governance director, Courtney Radsch, condemns last week’s Federal Communications Commission vote to scrap a rule that limited TV media consolidation. “This decision effectively places FCC Chair Brendan Carr in open defiance of Congress, and it gives us yet again another reason to call for removing him from his post,” said Radsch in a statement.

Public Citizen co-president Lisa Gilbert calls last week’s Senate confirmation of Todd Blanche as attorney general a “stain on the record of Senators who voted to confirm him.”

After yet another company announced a settlement agreement with Trump’s Interior Department last week to abandon its offshore wind leases, the Natural Resources Defense Council notes that this brings the tally of such settlements up to “nearly $4 billion in U.S. taxpayer funds.” In a statement published on the organization’s website, NRDC policy analyst Pasha Feinberg said that “American consumers are paying twice, once with their tax dollars and the second time with higher utility bills.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Four Questions For: Crystal FitzSimons, president of the Food Research & Action Center

Interview by Monica Potts

Q: Who are you, and what are you working on right now?

A: I am the president of the Food Research & Action Center, where I’ve spent 27 years working to end poverty-related hunger in America. Before stepping into this role, I spent many years leading our child nutrition work. Right now, we are focused on restoring, protecting, and strengthening the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program after Congress made unprecedented cuts to the program in July 2025. Since then, five million people have lost access to SNAP.

Q: What is the most difficult thing about your line of work?

A: Helping policymakers feel the urgency of ending hunger can be one of the hardest parts of this work. Children only get one childhood, and there are no do-overs. Growing up in a food-insecure household, as one in five children do, can have a lasting impact on how they grow, learn, and thrive. Hunger is solvable. It just requires political will.

Q: What was your biggest success in the last year or two?

A: We have made significant progress on Healthy School Meals for All. More schools are offering school breakfast and lunch to all their students at no cost, regardless of household income. That’s a win for kids who have the nutrition they need to thrive in school, families who can count on school meals to help ease pressure on their household budgets, and schools who have students who are well nourished and ready to learn. 

Q: What keeps you going in these stressful times?

A: What motivates me is knowing that hunger isn’t inevitable; it’s a policy choice. We know what works. We have the tools to solve it. And that is what we focus on every day at FRAC. I also draw strength from the commitment and passion of my colleagues, who bring that same sense of purpose to the work.

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

A Democratic Wisconsin senator from the 1960s and ’70s was the creator of Earth Day. Who was he? (Sign up for The Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.) 

Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save democracy. Every morning, you’ll get a rundown of late-breaking news, what Democrats on Capitol Hill are thinking, quick hits on what you need to know nationally, the latest on what’s coming out of the think tanks and activist groups, short interviews with progressive newsmakers and authors, and more (including some humor and political trivia!). There’s nothing else out there like it.

Inside Washington

Protecting workers from AI is easier said than done

House Democrats trying to address artificial intelligence–related job loss have a problem: No one’s really sure what the economic upheaval from AI is going to look like.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei made headlines last year when he predicted that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs in the next one to five years. Verizon CEO Dan Schulman predicted 20 percent to 30 percent unemployment within the next two to five years. A coalition of 200 AI-industry professionals and economists (including 16 Nobel laureates) released a statement titled “We Must Act Now: A Statement on AI’s Transformation of the Economy,” which calls for stakeholders to prepare for the economic impacts of more powerful AI.

On Thursday, Representatives Greg Casar, Valerie Foushee, and Sara Jacobs unveiled the latest installment in a host of Democratic and bipartisan bills seeking to address concerns about AI. Their proposal: the AI Tax and Work Protection Act, a plan to tax AI companies and build a new Work Protection Administration to create AI-proof jobs.

“While workers get pushed out, some of the world’s biggest corporations are raking in record profits off of AI systems trained on human work, without ensuring workers share in those gains. So Congress needs to act right now,” said Jacobs.

Legislative proposals around AI so far have mostly focused on data centers and safety regulation—although no bills on this front have been passed. Some legislators are also trying to get more information about how AI is already affecting workers. Senators Jim Banks, a Republican, and John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, are collaborating on a bill that would add questions to federal job surveys about how AI is used in the workplace and which roles are most impacted by AI. That bill, the AI Workforce Projections, Research and Evaluations to Promote AI Readiness and Employment, or AI Workforce PREPARE Act, was introduced in December. The new bill from House members also spells out a plan for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to collect more data about AI and the economy.

The current lack of information around how AI is impacting workers is a major concern for researchers. “I think it is fair to say that nobody really knows exactly what’s going to happen with regard to related job loss, and we have no good measures of it,” said Thomas Davenport, a professor of information technology and management at Babson College.

But some experts are skeptical of predictions like 50 percent of white-collar jobs disappearing. “I think there’s a lot of uncertainty, of course, about AI, and potential for job loss has been dominated by the opinions of people in industry,” said Morgan Frank, an assistant professor in the Department of Informatics and Networked Systems at the University of Pittsburgh. “That means that certain narratives can run wild without the empirics to back it up. And so I can understand why the public is worried and wants to see legislators respond, and therefore legislators are responding.”

Lawmakers say they’re acting on concerns they’ve been hearing from their constituents. “It’s what people want, and so these AI PACs can try to spend huge amounts of money to try to shut people up, but I think that Democrats should pick where the voters are, what the voters want, over what big money interests want,” said Casar, addressing the role that AI-industry money has been playing in elections. Leading the Future, a PAC supported by major tech figures like Greg Brockman, the co-founder of OpenAI, and Joe Lonsdale, the co-founder of Palantir, has been spending heavily to elect pro-AI candidates. The PAC’s policy wing, Build American AI, has endorsed 43 House members so far.

Addressing the fact that data about AI-related job loss is sparse, legislators on the call said that the bill is designed to be flexible and responsive to a changing economy. They pointed to its shifting tax rate: The rate rises when unemployment rates rise. If AI usage increases dramatically, more tokens are spent, so the token tax revenue rises too. “This bill has this kind of framework that plans for an uncertain future,” Casar said. “We should have a plan in place so that if unemployment does go up, we’re prepared, rather than just dealing with the crisis once AI billionaires are becoming trillionaires and many people are put out of work.”

Revenue from the taxes would be invested in projects like building housing, training caregivers, increasing access to elder- and childcare, and modernizing infrastructure. The grants would be disbursed from the Work Protection Administration to states, cities, tribes, localities, nonprofits, unions, and educational institutions, the bill says.

The bill “recognizes that creating this full-employment economy, ensuring that we still have a full-employment economy, is not a matter of dreaming up make-work jobs. It is a matter of elevating and expanding the desperately needed jobs that are undersupplied today and will be undersupplied tomorrow,” said Gene Sperling, the director of the National Economic Council and assistant to the president for economic policy under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Sperling worked with the lawmakers to draft the legislation.

Casar said that he’s hopeful the bill will complement other recent legislative proposals, like an AI safety bill from Representatives Jay Obernolte and Lori Trahan, and another bill from Representatives Ted Lieu and Nathaniel Moran. “This is not a symbolic proposal. This is a proposal that we have been vetting with the relevant committees, and we hope it’s written in a way that it is intended to be put in place as soon as possible,” Casar said. “So this is not a messaging bill. This is what we want Democrats rallying around.”

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

Sarah Trone Garriott responds to trans panic with Scripture

Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott, the Lutheran minister and state senator running against Republican Zach Nunn in an attempt to flip Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, has released her first general election campaign ad, and the second word she utters in it is “Scripture.” In the 30-second video heavily emphasizing her faith, Trone Garriott says that “in Scripture, it’s taught to be quick to listen and slow to speak. Well, Congress could stand to hear a verse or two.” The ad continues to say that “people are hurting and Washington isn’t helping,” and that’s why “it’s time to pass term limits, require town halls, and ban politicians from trading stocks.”

Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy profile of Trone Garriott (with charts!), noting that she’s part of a wave of progressive Christian Democrats, including fellow Iowans Lindsay James (IA-2) and Rob Sand (governor’s race), aiming to “win back religious voters.” As both the Journal’s Christopher Kuo and the Des Moines Register’s Marissa Payne note, however, Trone Garriott is also responding to Republican attacks “seeking,” in Payne’s words, “to undermine her religious credibility, painting her progressive politics and positions on LGBTQ issues as incompatible with her faith.”

This is putting it mildly. “She voted to let boys into girls’ sports and girls’ locker rooms,” Nunn campaign manager Brendan Duffy said earlier this week. “She voted against protecting kids from sex change surgeries. She put her name on a bill to start sex ed in kindergarten.” As Payne has previously reported, Republican social media accounts have also called Trone Garriott a “so-called” or “fake” minister. The battle lines for the general election, in other words, are becoming clear. The Nunn campaign will portray Trone Garriott as a sexual radical who threatens children’s safety. There hasn’t been any public polling in this race since the primaries. The Cook Political Report calls it a “toss-up.”

Elsewhere:

• The Nevada Independent publishes a rundown of differences between incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, who are competing in November’s gubernatorial election. Some highlights: Ford favors “requiring data centers to provide their own power,” increasing the state’s per-capita K-12 spending, limiting “the number of homes a corporation can purchase,” and enshrining a right to an abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, while Lombardo’s campaign “did not give a direct yes or no answer” on of any of these, Tabitha Mueller reports; they are unsurprisingly split on repealing the state’s “right-to-work” law—as well as requiring a photo ID to vote, and other issues.
• The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that 96 million gallons of untreated wastewater were leaked into Lake Michigan last week following a storm. That’s actually on the smaller end of what’s known as a “combined sewer overflow,” a deliberate release of water intended to prevent basement backups. But it’s not a great situation given the increasingly severe weather driven by the climate crisis. The paper’s Caitlin Looby notes that updates to the system are being “fast tracked.” You can read more about those efforts here.

—Heather Souvaine Horn  

The Ideas Factory

For the Commonwealth Fund, Maanasa Kona, Sabrina Corlette, and Zeynep Celik pen a report on “where current state medical debt laws fall short and how states can fill gaps and build on their recent reforms.” Specifically, they find “many hospital financial assistance requirements exclude underinsured patients, immigrants, and people just above narrow income thresholds.” Also, they write, the application processes are too complicated.

Earlier this week, Groundwork Collaborative president and CEO Lindsay Owens strongly condemned surveillance pricing while testifying before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Counterterrorism. “Surveillance pricing isn’t just unfair. It erodes transparency and predictability and makes it harder for families to budget, let alone comparison shop,” Owens said, before listing both historical and hypothetical examples. “Imagine you’re the parent of a sick child. It’s midnight. You ask Walmart’s AI shopping assistant, Sparky, to suggest a thermometer and some Tylenol. Sparky knows that your purchase is urgent, potentially leveraging that vulnerability to overcharge you.”

While moderate Democrats such as Chuck Schumer, Gretchen Whitmer, and even Haley Stevens have pointedly endorsed progressive Abdul El-Sayed following his win in the Michigan primary earlier this week, centrist and moderate groups are making their displeasure known. Two notable examples: centrist group Third Way, which announced a $15 million “war” against the left in The New York Times on Thursday, and centrist think tank Progressive Policy Institute, whose president, Will Marshall, issued a statement saying El-Sayed’s “narrower-than-expected victory … highlights the risks posed by left-wing ideologues to the party’s midterm election prospects” and will “compound the party’s already difficult challenge of winning back the Senate this fall.”

The Center for Biological Diversity, Miami Waterkeeper, Florida Wildlife Federation, and the Diving Equipment and Marketing Association are suing the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and National Marine Fisheries Service for allegedly violating the Endangered Species Act via a dredging project near Port Everglades. The dredging, they say, endangers “critical marine habitat, threatened corals and queen conch,” adding: “There is added pressure on the reef ecosystem, and greater risk from this project, after an unprecedented 2023 marine heatwave caused widespread staghorn and elkhorn coral mortality, leaving these threatened species at dire risk of extinction.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn  

In Closing

Good Week: Abdul El-Sayed

It may have been by the skin of his teeth—a result far closer than the (historically bad) polling in Michigan suggested—but the newly minted Senate nominee is looking ahead to what promises to be a pugnacious general election after surviving the massive cannons of money spent to ensure his primary defeat.

Bad Week: Third Way

Not everyone is taking this news well, however. The self-styled centrist org has picked this moment to announce a $15 million war against the Democratic Socialists of America (of whom El-Sayed is not a member). Isn’t there an election to be won? Scratch a grifty moderate, find a wrecker.

—Jason Linkins

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

The night of the burglary that started the whole mess, a night watchman at the Watergate office complex noticed something amiss as he made his rounds. What was his name, and what did he see? (Sign up for The Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)

Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save democracy. Every morning, you’ll get a rundown of late-breaking news, what Democrats on Capitol Hill are thinking, quick hits on what you need to know nationally, the latest on what’s coming out of the think tanks and activist groups, short interviews with progressive newsmakers and authors, and more (including some humor and political trivia!). There’s nothing else out there like it.

Sign up and get this newsletter for free.

Inside Washington

Will this bill save Social Security, or kill it?

A new piece of legislation aims to avert a Social Security crisis by fast-tracking a solution before cuts are imminent. But Democrats are torn: Some say, far from saving the program, the bill could give Republicans an opening to raise the retirement age or cut benefits.

The bipartisan bill, dubbed the Protecting Retirement Opportunities and Maintaining Income Security for Everyone, or PROMISE, Act, calls for the nonpartisan Social Security Advisory Board, or SSAB, to come up with a legislative framework to keep Social Security solvent for at least 50 more years. The act, which senators debated in a Finance Committee hearing on Wednesday, also requires the House and Senate to debate, amend, and vote on the bill on a condensed timeline, with just 100 hours of floor time allotted for it.

Critics like Senator Bernie Sanders say there’s insufficient oversight of the SSAB drafting process and that the tight voting timeline means a lame-duck Congress could be deciding the future of Social Security. “Social Security is the most important program facing the American people, and we need a serious way forward,” Sanders told The New Republic. “I don’t think a serious way forward is having folks who have either been defeated for election or who are retiring making the key decisions.”

Senator Tim Kaine, one of the bill’s co-sponsors, said he understands the desire to start this process when there isn’t a Republican governing trifecta, but that there’s a downside to further delay. “If you wait until it’s right up against the deadline, you traumatize a lot of people who think maybe [Congress] won’t come up with a solution,” he said. “So our goal is to start the discussion earlier.”

A report released by the Social Security Board of Trustees in early June found that the Social Security Trust Fund will only be able to cover 78 percent of benefits in 2032, which means that without congressional action, Americans who receive Social Security benefits will see theirs reduced by 22 percent. Based on the average benefit of $2,071 per month, that would amount to a monthly cut of $450. More than 70 million Americans receive Social Security benefits. One estimate suggests that this cut could push more than three million seniors and people with disabilities into poverty.

Some progressive senators suggested Wednesday that the impending cliff is all the more reason to have a freshly elected Congress address the issue directly, rather than relying on the SSAB to determine the path forward.

Sanders pointed to his own proposal for Social Security, as well as Senator Elizabeth Warren’s, as potentially the best paths forward. Both Sanders and Warren support lifting the cap on taxable income to generate more revenue for Social Security. Currently, the Social Security payroll tax only applies to the first $184,500 workers earn. Someone who makes $60,000 per year, for example, will pay 6.2 percent of every dollar they earn into Social Security. Someone who makes $500,000, though, will only pay that 6.2 percent tax on the first $184,500 of their income. Warren suggests eliminating the cap altogether, and Sanders wants to subject all income over $250,000 to the payroll tax.

“If you’re a nurse or an electrician, you pay taxes with every paycheck. If you’re a billionaire and you’re good with your accountant and you know your lawyer, you can pay little or nothing; that’s not right,” explained Senator Ron Wyden, who started his career as the co-founder of Oregon’s Gray Panthers, an advocacy organization for the elderly.

Removing the cap while providing benefit credit for those earnings could raise an additional $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years, according to one estimate. That revenue would close nearly half of the 75-year funding gap.

Progressives like Sanders and Warren also worry that the SSAB, left to its own devices, might propose policies like raising the retirement age, privatizing the program, or reducing cost-of-living adjustments.

“We have very different approaches to resolving the upcoming Social Security cliff, and Republicans more than once have tried to put together commissions, hoping that Democrats will give them cover for their preferred solution: cutting the benefits. I won’t be a partner to that,” Warren said.

The AARP, whose executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer, Nancy LeaMond, testified in the Finance Committee hearing on Wednesday, seems to agree with progressives on this. “Your legislation would require an unelected, four-member Advisory Board to put together a 50-year solvency plan in just over a month, with little time for deliberation and limited public input,” LeaMond wrote in a July letter opposing the bill. “If they are unsuccessful, any two members of Congress could force votes on their plans in just a few weeks.” She likewise criticized the prospect of “fast-tracked floor debates in the lame-duck session of Congress, just after the November elections, when departing Members are completely unaccountable to voters.”

Sanders sent a “Dear Colleague” letter to Democrats on Monday expressing the same concerns.

Kaine noted on Wednesday that the bill still provides opportunity for amendments and floor debate. “If it’s not getting 60 votes, it ain’t happening. So that means we’re all going to get to have our input,” he said. “I view the PROMISE Act as the jump ball. Somebody’s got to throw the jump ball up to start the game.”

—Emma Janssen  

Outside Washington

Does Doug Jones have a shot in Alabama?

Amid all the primaries coverage this week, you may have missed the remarkable finding that Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville—a 2020 election denier with a history of Islamophobic and racist remarks—is leading Democrat Doug Jones by only 49–41 in the Alabama governor’s race, despite 56 percent of respondents in that poll identifying as Republican. Granted, it was a weird news item: Those numbers were pulled from a poll funded by a national school-choice advocacy group called the “yes. every kid. foundation.” that was aiming to showcase the potential political payoff of supporting school choice. But when Tuberville and Jones last faced off, in the 2020 Senate race, Tuberville beat Jones by 20 points. So in that context—and given that there hasn’t been much polling on this race so far—the poll was guaranteed to make headlines. “If you’re a Democrat, I’m Lloyd Christmas telling you there’s a chance,” wrote Josh Moon at the Alabama Political Reporter on Wednesday, noting that this poll was conducted before Tuberville alienated a bunch of people with “scorched earth” comments against Social Security and in favor of data centers. “And if you’re a Republican supporting Tuberville,” Moon added, “I’m telling you that you’ve still got a two-score lead, but the other team is at the goal line and your quarterback keeps throwing interceptions.”

Elsewhere:

• CalMatters reporter Rachel Becker explains, for laypeople, why the ongoing policy negotiations over Colorado River water usage are so very complicated—and why neither the “rough parameters” released by Trump’s Interior Department last week nor the cuts that will be announced “any day” now are going to meet the urgent need for a long-term, comprehensive plan. “Building anything to store, move, or make more water typically takes decades and billions of dollars. Without longer-term certainty about how states will share the river’s water supply among 40 million people, millions of acres of agriculture, and two states in Mexico—cities and irrigation providers are struggling to plan how to close the gaps,” writes Becker.
• Big news for avocado fans and both hobbyist and professional plant breeders: Scientists have finally identified the gene that determines when during the day the trees open their female flowers versus their male ones—a daily sex-change ritual each avocado plant performs that’s been puzzling scientists for over a century.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

The Roosevelt Institute drops a new policy brief on “The Economics of the Last and Next Social Security Reform,” arguing that the typical thesis about Social Security’s insolvency—”people live longer and have fewer kids, ergo, Social Security is running out of money”—is flawed. “Social Security is a reflection of, and is supported by, the strength of the economy,” economist Kathryn Anne Edwards argues in the brief. “Who is working, how much they earn, how healthy they are, and how much they save matter more than the head count. People could live longer, have fewer kids, and have a solvent Social Security if workers earned enough money.”

The Open Markets Institute has filed an amicus brief in the Justice Department’s antitrust case against Google, arguing against a court ruling that allows Google to continue “pay[ing] companies such as Apple and browser developers to make Google Search the default search engine.” Brief author and OMI policy counsel Tara Pincock said in the organization’s press release, “If the court allows those payments to continue, the remedy will leave the monopoly largely intact.”

It’s becoming increasingly clear that voters’ views on Trump’s economic policies—particularly the inflationary effects of the war on Iran, as well as the never-ending array of arbitrary tariffs—are going to be a major factor in the November midterms. Pew Research’s recent findings on this were pretty stark: In the first six months of the year, the number of respondents saying they expected the economy to improve in the next year sank from 31 percent to 23 percent. Democrats have thought the economy and Trump’s handling of it was terrible throughout, so the big takeaway was how much of this is being “driven by a shift among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.” The share of that demographic rating the economy highly has fallen from 49 percent to 41 percent, and the percentage of them saying that Trump’s policies are to blame has risen from 18 percent to 28 percent.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Here’s Why That’s B.S.

Did Jeanine Pirro have any other choice?

Trump is furious with U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro for dropping the nonsensical Reflecting Pool “vandalism” case. But this wasn’t a principled stand. Watch TNR’s Edie Olmsted explain the story, here.

Political Trivia Question of the Day

As the anniversary of Richard Nixon’s resignation approaches (it’s next Sunday), we’ll toss out a couple Watergate-related questions. Today, the easier one: What was the name of Nixon’s secretary who acknowledged that she “accidentally” erased up to 18.5 minutes of a taped Oval Office conversation between Nixon and aide H.R. Haldeman? (Sign up for The Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)

Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save democracy. Every morning, you’ll get a rundown of late-breaking news, what Democrats on Capitol Hill are thinking, quick hits on what you need to know nationally, the latest on what’s coming out of the think tanks and activist groups, short interviews with progressive newsmakers and authors, and more (including some humor and political trivia!). There’s nothing else out there like it.

Sign up and get this newsletter for free. 

Inside Washington

How popular is Hakeem Jeffries among Democrats?

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is struggling among some Democratic voters, a new poll from the progressive A Fight Worth Having, or AFWH, PAC suggests. The poll comes as Democrats are poised to take back the House this November, which would vault Jeffries to the position of speaker of the House.

The poll surveyed likely voters in three blue districts: New York’s 15th congressional district, a heavily Hispanic and Black district represented by Representative Ritchie Torres; Arizona’s 4th congressional district, represented by Representative Greg Stanton; and Missouri’s 1st district, a plurality-Black district represented by Representative Wesley Bell. New York’s 15th and Missouri’s 1st are both heavily Democratic districts, and Arizona’s 4th is rated D+4 by the Cook Political Report. Both Stanton and Torres easily defeated progressive challengers in their primaries this year. Bell handily won reelection against progressive Cori Bush on Tuesday.

“What we’ve been trying to do with our polling is go into Democratic strongholds where you would think that Hakeem Jeffries would be the strongest,” said Corbin Trent, who runs AFWH. Trent was the national campaign coordinator for Senator Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign and was Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s communications director.

The poll found that a plurality of voters in Arizona’s 4th district (45 percent) and Missouri’s 1st district (43 percent) say Democrats in Congress should replace Jeffries as leader if they win back the House in November—with only 34 percent and 37 percent, respectively, thinking he should remain in his position. The rest were “not sure.” Jeffries had more support in New York’s 15th district, where 61 percent of respondents support Jeffries staying on as the leader of the caucus and 31 percent want someone else. After being given a set of strongly worded progressive messaging points against Jeffries, respondents’ support for Jeffries dropped in all three districts.

Of course, voters don’t decide who is speaker of the House. Representatives of the majority party vote for their speaker when the new Congress convenes. Still, the findings reflect a broader frustration with how Democratic voters perceive their leaders as having fought back against President Donald Trump. A number of progressive candidates who won their primaries this year have declined to say whether they will support Jeffries as speaker, including Darializa Avila Chevalier, Adam Hamawy, and Claire Valdez. Melat Kiros, who won her primary in Colorado’s 1st congressional district, has pledged not to support any Democrat who takes corporate PAC money for leadership (Jeffries receives such money).

AFWH ran the poll through Redbox Research, its polling unit managed by Peter Feld. The poll was fielded by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey.

“One should never put much weight on any one poll,” Jeffery Jenkins, provost professor of public policy, political science, and law at the University of Southern California, cautioned in an email. “I think Jeffries maintains a lot of support within the caucus.” While leftist candidates may have criticized Jeffries, he added, “it remains to be seen how they will vote on a speakership contest if the Democrats win a majority.… Comments at this point are cheap talk. Actual votes cast are costly signals.”

Jeffries’s team did not comment directly on the poll, but referred The New Republic to a recent speech Jeffries gave outlining Democratic strategy to win the midterms and advance their agenda if they take back the House. In that July 26 speech, Jeffries made the pitch that he and House Democrats were ready to lead if elected to the majority this November. Speaking at the United Steelworkers Union Hall in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, he promised to hold the Trump administration accountable for corruption, “clean up the mess at the United States Supreme Court,” ban the president, vice president, and members of Congress from trading stocks, and make health care affordable for “every single citizen.”

Jeffries’s support among Black voters remains strong, particularly in New York’s 15th congressional district, close to his home district, New York’s 8th. Seventy-four percent of Black voters in the 15th district support his leadership, while 20 percent want him to be replaced. In Missouri’s 1st district, a smaller number of Black voters, but still a plurality of 43 percent, support his leadership.

Overall, Jeffries maintains good favorability ratings, including among the voters surveyed by A Fight Worth Having’s poll. In New York’s 15th district, he comes away with a 66 percent favorability rating. In Arizona’s 4th district, 53 percent of respondents approve of him, and 50 percent do in Missouri’s 1st district. In a January poll of base Democratic voters conducted by Embold Research for The New Republic, Jeffries received a 60 percent favorability rating. But in both these polls, national progressives like Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani tended to outperform Jeffries’s favorability ratings. In Missouri’s 1st district, the AFWH poll found Mamdani outperforming both Jeffries and Bell, with a 66 percent favorability rating. 

Trent didn’t offer a specific name, nor a plan to replace Jeffries as leader of the caucus. “The list of people that could do the job is quite long,” he said. “But there’s also a pretty long list of people that aren’t ready for that job.”

Jeffries is all but certain to hold onto his leadership role, even if the midterms usher in a few more progressives skeptical of his leadership. But the AFWH poll, along with recent election results and anti-incumbent attitudes, does point to a challenge for him. Ultimately, the question probably isn’t whether Jeffries will remain at the helm, but rather how he will manage an increasingly progressive caucus and prioritize legislation if he does hold the gavel come January.

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

GOP attacks on Francesca Hong are getting ugly

Wisconsin’s primaries will take place next week. But Tom Tiffany, favored to win the Republican gubernatorial primary, has already begun attacking Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who’s favored to win the Democratic primary, over her old tweets. In 2022, Hong posted to the site then known as Twitter about witnessing “the worst of humanity” emerge on Valentine’s Day when she was working in restaurants. In 2019, she described feeling uncomfortable in the fast food chain Culver’s around “old white people who didn’t think we spoke english.” A third tweet said, “Cancel Thanksgiving. Should have done that in 1621.” Tiffany has reposted the tweets with statements of support for the holidays in question. “Just so everyone knows where I stand, I won’t cancel Thanksgiving as governor,” read one. 

Hong told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck that the tweets were “jokes,” but took a more nuanced position in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins. “Thanksgiving is also a time that’s incredibly painful for many people in our communities,” Hong said when asked whether she favored canceling the holiday, adding, “I wanted to make sure that people understood that there are multiple views, but views can evolve.”  

In recent days, Mother Jones’s Julia Métraux recently reported, right-wing media have also attacked Hong over her medical history. Hong has spoken in the past about having been hospitalized during a mental health crisis as a teenager and having been diagnosed with bipolar disorder. Asked about conservatives’ focus on the issue, Hong told Mother Jones in a statement that her own struggles have increased her “empathy and compassion” and made her a “stronger leader,” adding that “it’s important to talk openly so that others aren’t isolated and can take that first step to get help.”

Recent polling showed Tiffany narrowly leading Hong 43 to 40 in a hypothetical matchup. He also heads into the general election with $5 million in his war chest—“10 times as much cash as any Democratic candidate,” Beck reported Tuesday.

Elsewhere:

• Veteran wildfire fighters worry that “aggressive fire suppression tactics ordered by the Trump administration … could put firefighters in danger,” Stateline’s Alex Brown reports.
• New Jersey’s “assault weapon” ban will remain in effect, a federal appellate judge ordered on Tuesday, until the Supreme Court decides whether to hear the case.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

The Groundwork Collaborative and Ipsos release a new poll that goes beyond the typical finding that workers are worried about AI in the workplace. Turns out some workers are less worried than others. “Nearly half of workers with college degrees believe that AI will improve their own job compared to just 19% of workers with a high school education,” the press release explains. “Sentiment about AI in the workplace diverges along racial lines as well, with Black workers far more likely than their white peers to say that AI will replace them in the workplace outright (12% vs 4%).”

On Thursday, the Brookings Institution hosts “Teachers at the Frontlines of Climate Change,” an online event about the challenges facing teachers in eastern and southern Africa as they teach students about the climate change they’re already seeing on a daily basis—without adequate support.

The Economic Policy Institute’s Ismael Cid-Martinez writes on the organization’s Working Economics blog that, “while the overall financial well-being of most adults held steady in 2025, the financial well-being of Black adults declined. These individuals were also more likely to experience layoffs, leaving a higher share of Black adults and their families with increased fear of finding or keeping a job in 2025.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn  

In Closing

Book of the Week: The Rulers: Corporate Power in the Age of AI and the Cloud by Cecilia Rikap

THE GIST: Based on over 100 interviews with figures at the world’s leading tech and artificial intelligence firms, Rikap argues Microsoft, Amazon, and Google—and relative newcomers like OpenAI and Anthropic—have grown so powerful that they more closely resemble states than traditional corporations, which poses a significant problem for the contemporary anti-monopoly movement. Even other behemoth corporations, she writes, cannot avoid relying on these tech companies.

PRAISE: Mariana Mazzucato, author of The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy, says The Rulers is “an essential read for anyone seeking to understand why governing AI and digital infrastructure in the public interest is one of the defining political challenges of our time.”

CRUISING THE INDEX: One of Rikap’s many provocative ideas is that data centers should be public goods, used as counterbalances to the growing power of massive tech corporations.

TNR’S QUICK CRITICAL ASSESSMENT: Especially interesting for those well versed in the growing literature around corporate consolidation, The Rulers is troubling and persuasive about the limits of anti-monopoly tactics given the massive size of the current giants. Its argument that these corporations have grown state-like is particularly compelling.

—Alex Shephard  

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

One of Michigan’s greatest senators was a liberal crusader who was a major force behind 1965’s Voting Rights Act (remember the Voting Rights Act? It used to be a thing). Who was he? Possibly too-big hint: One of the Senate office buildings is named for him. (Sign up for The Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)

Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save democracy. Every morning, you’ll get a rundown of late-breaking news, what Democrats on Capitol Hill are thinking, quick hits on what you need to know nationally, the latest on what’s coming out of the think tanks and activist groups, short interviews with progressive newsmakers and authors, and more (including some humor and political trivia!). There’s nothing else out there like it.

Sign up and get this newsletter for free. 

Inside Washington

Could Black voters change their minds about Abdul El-Sayed?

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed has consistently polled ahead of his opponent, the establishment-backed Representative Haley Stevens. But there’s one demographic that El-Sayed hasn’t yet won over—a crucial one not just in Tuesday’s election, but for the general election in November: Black voters, who make up roughly a quarter of the state’s Democratic electorate. 

The big question is why that is. 

Some political analysts have suggested that Black voters support Stevens because of her association with the Democratic establishment, and they are wary of progressives like El-Sayed, whose rhetoric can come across as “burn it all down.” But it’s not that simple, said Vincent Hutchings, diversity and social transformation professor at the University of Michigan. “I think the notion that this is somehow indicative of an ideological split is probably overstated,” he said.

Instead, Hutchings said, Black voters are likely following cues from trusted members of the party establishment, like Representative Jim Clyburn, a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus who endorsed Stevens. “I know what it takes to energize Democratic voters. I know she has what it takes to energize Democratic voters, and we need that,” Clyburn said alongside Stevens at a Teamsters hall in Detroit on July 24.

Some Black voters may favor Stevens because of her association with President Barack Obama; though Obama hasn’t endorsed a candidate in the primary, Stevens’s supporters have spent $5 million to air an advertisement nearly 4,000 times where Obama praises her work on the U.S. Auto Rescue Task Force. The ad is funded by United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-affiliated super PAC, which has so far spent $30 million to support Stevens’s campaign.

There’s a “disconnect,” Hutchings said, between the fact that Black voters often embrace the “most leftist racial and economic policies in the party,” yet also often vote for the more moderate, establishment candidate. But his answer to that contradiction is simple: Black voters, like all voters, “are frequently not familiar with the actual platforms of the candidates.” Instead, they pay attention to crucial endorsements.

“That’s why it’s a mistake to think, ‘Oh, well, looks like there’s a divide in the Democratic Party between the quote-unquote ‘progressive forces’ and the quote-unquote ‘establishment forces,’ and it looks like Black voters are on the side of the quote-unquote ‘establishment,’” he said. “That’s an easy story to tell. I get why people tell it. It seems to map onto reality, but only until you scratch a little beneath the surface.”

Some Black voters could also be put off by progressive candidates who speak too adamantly against the Democratic establishment, explained Christopher Towler, a political science professor at California State University, Sacramento, and the director of the Black Voter Project. “A lot of progressive candidates who follow the [Senator Bernie] Sanders mold and are trying to break away from the party have to be very careful about alienating Black voters,” he said. “Many Black voters, especially the ones who vote in primaries, associate the Democratic Party with civil rights gains.” Criticizing the party and its establishment too adamantly could backfire, he explained.

Both Towler and Hutchings mentioned Sanders’s 2020 presidential primary run as an example of these same issues playing out. In Michigan, then-candidate Joe Biden walloped Sanders, winning every county in the state. Biden picked up 73 delegates to Sanders’s 52. It was a marked regression from Sanders’s performance in 2016, when he won the majority of Michigan’s counties and beat Hillary Clinton in the state. Biden’s victory in the state is partially attributed to Black voters showing up for him. A similar story played out in the South; in South Carolina, Sanders finished with a measly 17 percent of the Black vote, dealing a death blow to his campaign. In Michigan, Sanders has been a major supporter of El-Sayed’s campaign.

“Black voters are very strategic and practical with their votes, even in primaries,” said Towler. “If there’s not a candidate that they’re not completely in love with … they’re going to vote for who they think will win the election.” It’s a shrewd cost-benefit analysis focused on avoiding a Republican victory at all costs.

Both Stevens and El-Sayed have worked to court Black voters, spending countless Sunday mornings at Black churches across the state and highlighting their respective endorsements from Black leaders. El-Sayed picked up an endorsement from the Council of Baptist Pastors of Detroit and Vicinity in early July, and has the support of some younger or more progressive members of the Congressional Black Caucus, like Representatives Summer Lee, Maxwell Frost, and Bonnie Watson Coleman (among others). Some observers think El-Sayed has a good chance with these younger Black voters, who might care less about an endorsement from Clyburn or a sound bite featuring Obama. 

Meanwhile, Stevens surrogates have pushed narratives that El-Sayed is at odds with prominent Black political figures like Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris. Another United Democracy Project–funded mailer features a photo of Michelle Obama and quotes El-Sayed calling her work on childhood obesity as “uninspired” and “ineffectual.” Though the ad aimed to paint El-Sayed as a misogynist, Towler said that it could hurt him among Black voters, as well. 

El-Sayed has also needed to emphasize his support of Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign. In February 2024, El-Sayed pledged to vote “uncommitted” in the Democratic presidential primary to protest then-President Biden’s actions in Gaza. When Harris took over the nomination, El-Sayed endorsed her, but Stevens’s campaign continues to emphasize that original “uncommitted” vote.

Whoever wins Tuesday’s primary will need Black voters to propel them to a victory against Republican Mike Rogers in November. “You need to really focus on protecting the Black community from Trump and MAGA Republicans and the GOP’s agenda, which has become more and more anti-Black and focused on rolling back the racial progress that this country has made since the civil rights era,” said Towler, offering advice for whoever wins the primary. Black voters tend to be skeptical of big policy promises, Towler added. He says candidates should focus on stopping the GOP, “and then we can start to talk about what type of policy we can provide.” That contrasts with El-Sayed’s campaign slogan: “Money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for All.”

If, as polls suggest, El-Sayed is headed to a primary victory, Towler isn’t concerned about how Black voters will respond, and pointed to other examples of progressives who might not have won the Black vote in their primary but still won over the demographic during their general elections. “This again goes back to the practicality of Black voters when choosing candidates. They’re not going to vote for the Republican,” he said. Whether you’re talking about Zohran Mamdani in New York, James Talarico in Texas, or Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan—all of whom have failed to convince Black voters in the primary—the same principle applies, Towler said: When it comes to the general election, “Black voters are going to come home.” 

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

Other (i.e., non-Michigan) stories to watch in Tuesday’s primaries

While the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan has gotten most of the attention, there’s plenty to watch in the four other states with primaries on Tuesday: Kansas, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington. In Washington—a top-two primary system—Kshama Sawant and Melissa Chaudhry are challenging incumbent Representative Adam Smith from his left. In Missouri, the headline race is the heated rematch between sitting Representative Wesley Bell and former Representative Cori Bush, the erstwhile Squad member whom Bell, with significant funding from AIPAC, defeated in 2024 by a little under six points. Will the 2026 climate, in which progressives have notched more wins than in past cycles, help Bush prevail this time? There isn’t much polling on this one.

In Virginia, four different Dems—Adam Dunigan, Mo Seifeldein, Michael Duffin, and Lorena Bruner—are challenging incumbent Representative Don Beyer, in another race without much polling. Meanwhile, Democrat Eugene Vindman will find out who his Republican opponent will be in the competitive November race for the 7th congressional district, once represented by Abigail Spanberger. 

In Kansas, Democratic voters will choose between gubernatorial contenders Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson. There have been some weird side stories in this one involving the fight for term-limited Democratic Governor Laura Kelly’s either endorsement or nonintervention, but substantively, data centers are proving to be a big issue. (Holscher backs a temporary pause on construction, while Corson favors more modest policies around energy and water use.) Polling’s pretty limited on this race as well, although Holscher was well ahead in two polls conducted before the campaign really heated up. All that and much more, to be decided Tuesday. 

Elsewhere:

• David Dayen at The American Prospect looks at the private equity firms and life insurance companies whose fortunes are increasingly tied to the AI bubble—with potentially expensive consequences for taxpayers in the event of a bailout. 
• For other reading that will definitely not help your anxiety: Try The Washington Post’s data-filled feature on law enforcement officials using Flock cameras to stalk women. 

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

A coalition of climate advocates, watchdog organizations, and other groups on Monday denounced the Securities and Exchange Commission’s plan to “rescind its 2024 climate disclosure rule”—a move that would “undermine transparency in capital markets” and help risk-exposed companies avoid important disclosures. 

The Center for American Progress submits a comment letter to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative arguing that the Trump administration’s “Board of Trade” plan—a bilateral body established “to ensure that trade with China is more balanced and beneficial for Americans,” according to Ambassador Jamieson Greer—does nothing to “address the clear and present danger presented by the growing tide of Chinese industrial overcapacity.” The letter urges the administration to “prioritize working with like-minded partners and allies” rather than slapping tariffs on them.

On Wednesday at 1 p.m., the Roosevelt Institute hosts a Zoom panel on “What Social Security’s Shortfall Is Really Telling Us About the Economy.” Panelists include Kathryn Anne Edwards, Kate Bahn, Bradley Hardy, and Betsey Stevenson.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Four Questions For: Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute

Interview by Indigo Olivier  

Q: What are you working on right now?

A: My primary focus right now is on ending the disastrous Iran war and on preparing the U.S. for a multipolar world, and the world for a non-unipolar America.

Q: You’ve spent years arguing for diplomacy with Iran. What’s the hardest part of doing that in Washington?

A: After decades of animosity and mistrust, it isn’t simply a policy shift that is needed to resolve the tensions, but a paradigm shift. A fundamental rethinking of the U.S.’s own interest, its image of the other side, and its fundamental assumptions about what the other side wants and is willing to give up. At the same time, the enmity essentially runs on autopilot with a path dependency that renders any serious rethinking very difficult.

Q: Looking back over the last year or two, what accomplishment are you most proud of?

A: It is difficult to be happy or proud of anything in this current situation. We should not be in this war. People have died needlessly, immense amounts of money have been wasted on another war, and the pathways to a diplomatic breakthrough have become increasingly narrow. Until this war has been ended, it’s premature to talk about accomplishments.

Q: What has it been like to find yourself at the center of a controversy over your work and your immigration status?

A: Given how tense and politically charged this issue is in Washington, it unfortunately comes with the territory that any push for peace will be punished by those who prefer conflict. And on this issue, the gloves have always been off, sadly. Until a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict has been found, I don’t expect the political charge of this issue to recede, which means that many of us in this space will pay a personal price for challenging the forces of war. 

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

On the subject of Michigan: Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg coined the term “Reagan Democrat” in 1985 by interviewing and studying the voters of what paradigmatically swingy suburban Detroit county? (Sign up for The Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)