Nope. No way. If Trump and Clinton are the nominees, then Clinton wins in a historic landslide, a la LBJ in 1964.
Except ... perhaps it would be really stupid, after all that’s happened, to write him off.
But at the same time, in a polarized, nearly evenly divided electorate, there’s only so much the Democratic Party can do to expand its coalition. It’s unlikely that the editors of National Review and other anti-Trumpists will flock to Clinton. The real question is whether Trump can consolidate the GOP and perhaps even make inroads with blue-collar workers who have traditionally voted Democratic. As Noam Scheiber reported, even labor unions are interested in Trump, given his idiosyncratic position on trade.