A new Quinnipiac poll has Hillary Clinton suddenly trailing Donald Trump by two points (43-41) in Pennsylvania and three (42-39) in Florida; she and Trump are also tied in Ohio with both garnering 41 percent of the vote.
For pretty obvious reasons, this is bad news for Clinton. These are states Clinton needs to win, and any polling that puts Trump ahead of her in any one of these states is cause for concern. The Quinnipiac survey, moreover, was taken after FBI Director James Comey slammed her for her “careless” use of email servers, which means it could be taken as proof that Clinton’s issues with trustworthiness are affecting her campaign.
But the poll is also an outlier. Quinnipiac’s polling has leaned toward Republicans, according to Nate Silver. An NBC poll released shortly after Quinnipiac showed a tight contest in Ohio, but Clinton up by nine percentage points in Pennsylvania:
Aggregate polling, meanwhile, shows Clinton with modest leads in all three states, while Clinton boasts a sizable national lead according to every credible polling aggregate.
None of that is to say that the Quinnipiac poll shouldn’t be cause for alarm for Clinton supporters. But in an election that is not very close, a great deal of attention is going to be placed on polls that suggest the election is closer than it is.