Recent polling by Strength in Numbers and Verasight paints a dismal picture for Donald Trump and the GOP as they head into the midterms. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to the mid-to-low 30s, driven mostly by plummeting approval with Republicans. In years past, Trump’s approval ratings with Republicans hovered in the high 80s or low 90s. Today, it stands at closer to 70 percent.
These numbers are driven by public anger at the state of the economy, the increasing cost of living, and Trump’s poor leadership. A plurality of voters says that this midterm election is a referendum on Trump (who isn’t on the ballot), with independents saying this the most. As a result, the generic congressional ballot favors Democrats by 12 points among registered voters in one poll, and by 11 points among likely voters in another.
To put these numbers in context, the 2018 election’s blue wave saw Democrats win the national vote in the House by “only” 8.6 percent, and by 10.6 percent in 2008. The latter happened under a Republican president about as popular as Trump, at the height of the Great Recession and the flailing war in Iraq. Democrats ended up carrying 257 seats to 178 that year.
But tucked away in all this relatively good news are some disturbing trends that say a lot about both Republicans and the United States in general. Many of Trump’s most violent, authoritarian policies remain broadly popular with his base, and are his most popular ones among the public in general. Notably, for example, the public in general approves (barely) of his policy on deportations.
The same Verasight poll found that the public gives Republicans a one-point advantage on their handling of deportations, a five-point edge on crime and public safety, and an eleven-point cushion on border security. These would seem to show public support for Trump’s most violent and authoritarian policies, including ICE murders of civilians, air strikes on random boats, and ensuring “public safety” by forcing transgender people out of public life.
For anyone who has forgotten, Trump has assembled a brutal, unaccountable national police force that operates in secrecy and arrests anyone it wants to based on skin color or how they speak. There is no effective oversight to be found. They’re running concentration camps with a significant body count, with at least 57 people dying in ICE detention in Trump’s second term, according to the ACLU, and torture rooms at the infamous and since-closed Alligator Alcatraz.
American citizens, and those in the country legally, are routinely and violently detained and experience great bodily injury and even death. ICE has shot and killed at two Americans who were no threat to them. After Alex Pretti and Renee Good were murdered by officers, they were initially labelled as domestic terrorists. ICE agents also murdered Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, who was shot and killed during a traffic stop in Houston. ICE claimed he tried to run over an agent, but multiple witnesses contradicted that statement. The Trump administration has blocked states from investigating ICE when its agents randomly kill people.
It is disturbing that roughly half the U.S. population is ok with all this, and 77 percent of Republicans are all for it. Sixty-one percent of Republicans want no pathway to citizenship, and instead prefer deporting everyone, including those brought into the country as children. For these individuals, deportation to places where they neither speak the language nor have any connections is effectively a death sentence. In some cases, people who were in the country legally and face deportation are committing suicide rather than returning.
Republicans are still trusted more on “crime and public safety” than Democrats. Though somewhat ill-defined in the polling, the most prominent “crimes” that Republicans are seemingly interested in fighting are transgender people receiving health care, using bathrooms, renewing their passports, or playing kindergarten t-ball. What Republicans aren’t interested in fighting are white collar crimes, child rape (if the perp is a Republican donor or owns an island), public officials taking bribes, or attempts to overthrow the government.
Polling on all these issues shows that a majority of the public have adopted Republican anti-transgender talking points. Even Democrats are starting to fall in line behind them. It is the number one issue Republicans are campaigning on this election cycle, and they see it as a political winner.
Republicans in Congress and in state government are increasingly framing transgender people as dangerous, mentally-ill degenerates who should be locked away in mental institutions against their will. The internet roundly mocked GOP Senator Tuberville for bemoaning “furry airline pilots,” but lost in the social media buzz was the fact that it was part of a 20-minute tirade against transgender people where he demanded their involuntary commitment. Republican policies for transgender people have direct parallels to Germany’s policies between 1933 and 1945, and Republican calls for institutionalization should be an uncomfortable reminder of the Nazis’ Aktion T4 program, which institutionalized and killed people with mental illness and disabilities.
The other keystone of the Republican “law and order” focus is their support of airstrikes on boats suspected of drug smuggling. In days past a Navy or Coast Guard helicopter would disable the craft with a single rifle round to each engine, after which they’d board the boat, inspect the cargo, and take people into custody. Today, over 230 people have been killed by the U.S. military in airstrikes against vessels only suspected of having drugs on board. More Americans approve of this than disapprove (48 percent to 41 percent per a YouGov poll), which includes 83 percent of Republicans.
The United States has become judge, jury, and executioner on the high seas, which is likely a crime against humanity. A plurality of Americans approves of this, despite the strikes having no measurable impact on the supply of illicit drugs to the U.S. It is performative cruelty, the government knows it, and far too much of the American public likes it.
The uncomfortable conclusion to be drawn from all of this is that many Americans would (and did) happily vote for authoritarianism and cruelty, so long as gas stays under $3 per gallon and ground beef below $4 per pound. Trump broke the bargain by attacking Iran, disrupting and draining global energy supplies, starting perhaps the stupidest trade war in history with Canada, and raising the price of everything in the process.
Republicans campaign on two platforms: brutalizing Untermenschen, and pursuing tax cuts and policies friendly to corporations. They absolutely swear their economic policies will improve standards of living. Which, quelle surprise, they do not. Even Republicans feel like they cannot get ahead financially, which is causing the downturn in Trump’s approval rating with them. A New York Times/Siena University poll showed that the share of Republicans saying the economy is better than a year ago dropped from 72 percent in January to just 29 percent by September 2026.
This leads to the uncomfortable conclusion that, like average Russians, many Americans would be largely okay with fascism so long as they felt the economy was improving for themselves personally. The problem for the GOP is that fascism caters to the wealthy elite, causing average Americans to suffer economically.
History shows that fascism promises economic rewards to the herronvolk but instead gives the spoils to the elites and cronies. The Nazis slashed taxes, outlawed labor unions, privatized much of industry, and the elites grew far richer. In the process they drove 20 percent of small businesses under. Wages were frozen, and the average workweek increased by 20 percent in just a few years. One has to wonder when, or even if, the American public will ever figure this out. Rather than delivering bread and circuses, the only thing fascism delivers is heaping misery on disfavored groups.
It is an open question how long it will take for the MAGA base, as well as much of the American public, to realize a fundamental truth about the Republican Party: They will happily hurt the people you hate, but if you’re not one of the oligarchs at the table when it comes to economic matters, eventually, you’ll be on the menu as well.
