Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save democracy. Every morning, you’ll get a rundown of late-breaking news, what Democrats on Capitol Hill are thinking, quick hits on what you need to know nationally, the latest on what’s coming out of the think tanks and activist groups, short interviews with progressive newsmakers and authors, and more (including some humor and political trivia!). There’s nothing else out there like it.
Inside Washington
Protecting workers from AI is easier said than done
House Democrats trying to address artificial intelligence–related job loss have a problem: No one’s really sure what the economic upheaval from AI is going to look like.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei made headlines last year when he predicted that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs in the next one to five years. Verizon CEO Dan Schulman predicted 20 percent to 30 percent unemployment within the next two to five years. A coalition of 200 AI-industry professionals and economists (including 16 Nobel laureates) released a statement titled “We Must Act Now: A Statement on AI’s Transformation of the Economy,” which calls for stakeholders to prepare for the economic impacts of more powerful AI.
On Thursday, Representatives Greg Casar, Valerie Foushee, and Sara Jacobs unveiled the latest installment in a host of Democratic and bipartisan bills seeking to address concerns about AI. Their proposal: the AI Tax and Work Protection Act, a plan to tax AI companies and build a new Work Protection Administration to create AI-proof jobs.
“While workers get pushed out, some of the world’s biggest corporations are raking in record profits off of AI systems trained on human work, without ensuring workers share in those gains. So Congress needs to act right now,” said Jacobs.
Legislative proposals around AI so far have mostly focused on data centers and safety regulation—although no bills on this front have been passed. Some legislators are also trying to get more information about how AI is already affecting workers. Senators Jim Banks, a Republican, and John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, are collaborating on a bill that would add questions to federal job surveys about how AI is used in the workplace and which roles are most impacted by AI. That bill, the AI Workforce Projections, Research and Evaluations to Promote AI Readiness and Employment, or AI Workforce PREPARE Act, was introduced in December. The new bill from House members also spells out a plan for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to collect more data about AI and the economy.
The current lack of information around how AI is impacting workers is a major concern for researchers. “I think it is fair to say that nobody really knows exactly what’s going to happen with regard to related job loss, and we have no good measures of it,” said Thomas Davenport, a professor of information technology and management at Babson College.
But some experts are skeptical of predictions like 50 percent of white-collar jobs disappearing. “I think there’s a lot of uncertainty, of course, about AI, and potential for job loss has been dominated by the opinions of people in industry,” said Morgan Frank, an assistant professor in the Department of Informatics and Networked Systems at the University of Pittsburgh. “That means that certain narratives can run wild without the empirics to back it up. And so I can understand why the public is worried and wants to see legislators respond, and therefore legislators are responding.”
Lawmakers say they’re acting on concerns they’ve been hearing from their constituents. “It’s what people want, and so these AI PACs can try to spend huge amounts of money to try to shut people up, but I think that Democrats should pick where the voters are, what the voters want, over what big money interests want,” said Casar, addressing the role that AI-industry money has been playing in elections. Leading the Future, a PAC supported by major tech figures like Greg Brockman, the co-founder of OpenAI, and Joe Lonsdale, the co-founder of Palantir, has been spending heavily to elect pro-AI candidates. The PAC’s policy wing, Build American AI, has endorsed 43 House members so far.
Addressing the fact that data about AI-related job loss is sparse, legislators on the call said that the bill is designed to be flexible and responsive to a changing economy. They pointed to its shifting tax rate: The rate rises when unemployment rates rise. If AI usage increases dramatically, more tokens are spent, so the token tax revenue rises too. “This bill has this kind of framework that plans for an uncertain future,” Casar said. “We should have a plan in place so that if unemployment does go up, we’re prepared, rather than just dealing with the crisis once AI billionaires are becoming trillionaires and many people are put out of work.”
Revenue from the taxes would be invested in projects like building housing, training caregivers, increasing access to elder- and childcare, and modernizing infrastructure. The grants would be disbursed from the Work Protection Administration to states, cities, tribes, localities, nonprofits, unions, and educational institutions, the bill says.
The bill “recognizes that creating this full-employment economy, ensuring that we still have a full-employment economy, is not a matter of dreaming up make-work jobs. It is a matter of elevating and expanding the desperately needed jobs that are undersupplied today and will be undersupplied tomorrow,” said Gene Sperling, the director of the National Economic Council and assistant to the president for economic policy under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Sperling worked with the lawmakers to draft the legislation.
Casar said that he’s hopeful the bill will complement other recent legislative proposals, like an AI safety bill from Representatives Jay Obernolte and Lori Trahan, and another bill from Representatives Ted Lieu and Nathaniel Moran. “This is not a symbolic proposal. This is a proposal that we have been vetting with the relevant committees, and we hope it’s written in a way that it is intended to be put in place as soon as possible,” Casar said. “So this is not a messaging bill. This is what we want Democrats rallying around.”
—Emma Janssen
Outside Washington
Sarah Trone Garriott responds to trans panic with Scripture
Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott, the Lutheran minister and state senator running against Republican Zach Nunn in an attempt to flip Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, has released her first general election campaign ad, and the second word she utters in it is “Scripture.” In the 30-second video heavily emphasizing her faith, Trone Garriott says that “in Scripture, it’s taught to be quick to listen and slow to speak. Well, Congress could stand to hear a verse or two.” The ad continues to say that “people are hurting and Washington isn’t helping,” and that’s why “it’s time to pass term limits, require town halls, and ban politicians from trading stocks.”
Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy profile of Trone Garriott (with charts!), noting that she’s part of a wave of progressive Christian Democrats, including fellow Iowans Lindsay James (IA-2) and Rob Sand (governor’s race), aiming to “win back religious voters.” As both the Journal’s Christopher Kuo and the Des Moines Register’s Marissa Payne note, however, Trone Garriott is also responding to Republican attacks “seeking,” in Payne’s words, “to undermine her religious credibility, painting her progressive politics and positions on LGBTQ issues as incompatible with her faith.”
This is putting it mildly. “She voted to let boys into girls’ sports and girls’ locker rooms,” Nunn campaign manager Brendan Duffy said earlier this week. “She voted against protecting kids from sex change surgeries. She put her name on a bill to start sex ed in kindergarten.” As Payne has previously reported, Republican social media accounts have also called Trone Garriott a “so-called” or “fake” minister. The battle lines for the general election, in other words, are becoming clear. The Nunn campaign will portray Trone Garriott as a sexual radical who threatens children’s safety. There hasn’t been any public polling in this race since the primaries. The Cook Political Report calls it a “toss-up.”
Elsewhere:
- The Nevada Independent publishes a rundown of differences between incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, who are competing in November’s gubernatorial election. Some highlights: Ford favors “requiring data centers to provide their own power,” increasing the state’s per-capita K-12 spending, limiting “the number of homes a corporation can purchase,” and enshrining a right to an abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, while Lombardo’s campaign “did not give a direct yes or no answer” on of any of these, Tabitha Mueller reports; they are unsurprisingly split on repealing the state’s “right-to-work” law—as well as requiring a photo ID to vote, and other issues.
- The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that 96 million gallons of untreated wastewater were leaked into Lake Michigan last week following a storm. That’s actually on the smaller end of what’s known as a “combined sewer overflow,” a deliberate release of water intended to prevent basement backups. But it’s not a great situation given the increasingly severe weather driven by the climate crisis. The paper’s Caitlin Looby notes that updates to the system are being “fast tracked.” You can read more about those efforts here.
—Heather Souvaine Horn
The Ideas Factory
For the Commonwealth Fund, Maanasa Kona, Sabrina Corlette, and Zeynep Celik pen a report on “where current state medical debt laws fall short and how states can fill gaps and build on their recent reforms.” Specifically, they find “many hospital financial assistance requirements exclude underinsured patients, immigrants, and people just above narrow income thresholds.” Also, they write, the application processes are too complicated.
Earlier this week, Groundwork Collaborative president and CEO Lindsay Owens strongly condemned surveillance pricing while testifying before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Counterterrorism. “Surveillance pricing isn’t just unfair. It erodes transparency and predictability and makes it harder for families to budget, let alone comparison shop,” Owens said, before listing both historical and hypothetical examples. “Imagine you’re the parent of a sick child. It’s midnight. You ask Walmart’s AI shopping assistant, Sparky, to suggest a thermometer and some Tylenol. Sparky knows that your purchase is urgent, potentially leveraging that vulnerability to overcharge you.”
While moderate Democrats such as Chuck Schumer, Gretchen Whitmer, and even Haley Stevens have pointedly endorsed progressive Abdul El-Sayed following his win in the Michigan primary earlier this week, centrist and moderate groups are making their displeasure known. Two notable examples: centrist group Third Way, which announced a $15 million “war” against the left in The New York Times on Thursday, and centrist think tank Progressive Policy Institute, whose president, Will Marshall, issued a statement saying El-Sayed’s “narrower-than-expected victory … highlights the risks posed by left-wing ideologues to the party’s midterm election prospects” and will “compound the party’s already difficult challenge of winning back the Senate this fall.”
The Center for Biological Diversity, Miami Waterkeeper, Florida Wildlife Federation, and the Diving Equipment and Marketing Association are suing the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and National Marine Fisheries Service for allegedly violating the Endangered Species Act via a dredging project near Port Everglades. The dredging, they say, endangers “critical marine habitat, threatened corals and queen conch,” adding: “There is added pressure on the reef ecosystem, and greater risk from this project, after an unprecedented 2023 marine heatwave caused widespread staghorn and elkhorn coral mortality, leaving these threatened species at dire risk of extinction.”
—Heather Souvaine Horn
In Closing
Good Week: Abdul El-Sayed
It may have been by the skin of his teeth—a result far closer than the (historically bad) polling in Michigan suggested—but the newly minted Senate nominee is looking ahead to what promises to be a pugnacious general election after surviving the massive cannons of money spent to ensure his primary defeat.
Bad Week: Third Way
Not everyone is taking this news well, however. The self-styled centrist org has picked this moment to announce a $15 million war against the Democratic Socialists of America (of whom El-Sayed is not a member). Isn’t there an election to be won? Scratch a grifty moderate, find a wrecker.
—Jason Linkins
Political Trivia Question of the Day
The night of the burglary that started the whole mess, a night watchman at the Watergate office complex noticed something amiss as he made his rounds. What was his name, and what did he see? (Sign up for The Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)






