In February 2023, I published an article in The New Republic about Americans, particularly from marginalized communities, who were looking to exit the country amid the rise of gun violence and far-right politics. It had been some time since I’d thought about that piece. But almost exactly one year to the day after it was published, it garnered the attention of HBO’s Real Time With Bill Maher, in which the show’s titular host featured it in a segment that ridiculed the notion of people fretting about their safety in this country, imploring us instead to stay here and make it a better place. Maher took great pains to condescendingly wonder if I knew that being gay is criminalized in dozens of countries—well, duh—and about capital punishment in China. (Unlike, Maher, I actually lived there for three years, so—once again—duh.)
Still, I was more or less flattered by the attention, despite the maladroit purposes to which my original piece was put. But if Maher is reading this, then I’d like to invite him over for a delicious slice of crow pie. Because now that Donald Trump and unelected sidekick Elon Musk are taking a wrecking ball to our country and its democracy, my prediction of two years ago is coming true amid a rise in worrying signs that many people in this country indeed have their eyes on the exits, including those with skill sets we can ill afford to lose.
On February 8, German newsmagazine Der Spiegel reported that the Max Planck Society—one of the world’s top scientific research institutions—is experiencing an uptick in applications from American scientists. Its president said the society regards the U.S. as “a new talent pool” at a time when the Trump administration seeks to cut billions in funding to the National Institutes of Health. There’s a deep historical irony in these recent developments: During the Third Reich, it was the Max Planck Society—then known as the Kaiser Wilhelm Society—that lost its best and brightest to the U.S. and other countries, including Albert Einstein.
A day prior, Irish broadcaster RTÉ reported that Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs has seen a 50 percent increase in the number of Americans seeking Irish passports, with some people specifically citing the new administration as a reason. Searches for terms like “dual citizenship” and “jus sanguinis” likewise saw significant spikes on Election Day and Inauguration Day, according to Google Trends. And a representative of Polaron, an Australian company that helps people obtain European citizenship by descent, told me that her firm has also “seen a steep increase in Americans wishing to leave their country, with many more keen to use their EU passport as a plan B.”
Some of the people who worked so hard to establish a new home in the U.S. as refugees are now desperate to get back out: The Guardian reported that Canadian police apprehended more than a dozen people from Venezuela, the Middle East, and Africa trying to cross the border in dangerously cold temperatures without proper clothing, as the Trump administration revoked humanitarian parole for Venezuelans, Haitians, and others, but threw open the door for white South African “refugees.”
These are small statistics and anecdotes. Moreover, most of the initial wave of American emigration will likely feature those with the means to leave—those who possess foreign passports, job opportunities abroad, or lots of disposable income. But this all points in the same direction: With Trump back in office and faithfully executing the blueprint for wrecking the country known as Project 2025 while collaborating with the world’s richest man to trash democracy and wage a war on brain cells in the federal government, a growing number of people in this country see the writing on the wall, and they’re looking for their bug-out plan. According to a Gallup poll released before the election, the 17 percent of Americans who said they wanted to leave the country in 2023 rose to 21 percent in 2024.
One user on TikTok posted a video of herself waiting in the car as her Mexican-American husband applied for dual citizenship at the Mexican consulate in Houston, noting that she plans to as well. “For me, I don’t think it’s going to stop with Mexicans,” she said in the video. “It’s going to keep going on down the list, and at some point, Black folks here in the U.S., we’re going to feel what’s happening—we’re already seeing what’s happening, so I don’t feel exempt.”
That she, her husband and others would want to take such precautions should come as no surprise. As conditions in the U.S. worsen and the country becomes increasingly poorer, increasingly authoritarian, and increasingly violent, there is a good chance that more will consider leaving. It’s not as if the Trump administration has gone out of its way to remind people that all are welcome in his America.
With executive orders, Trump has abolished official recognition of transgender and non-binary people, erasing references to trans people from the official website of the Stonewall National Monument. He has rolled back diversity, equity, and inclusion programs—and even discarded the 60-year-old Executive Order 11246, which bans discrimination based on race and other categories. We’re now careening toward a constitutional crisis as Trump threatens to simply ignore court decisions overturning his executive orders—including a decision that barred Musk and his army of mini-me flunkies from accessing sensitive information on millions of Americans and controlling payment systems at the Treasury Department—a move that would basically end the rule of law.
And as he fired hundreds of Federal Aviation Administration employees weeks after a fatal plane crash in Washington, Trump posted a quote on social media, “He who saves his country does not violate any law”—a quote apocryphally attributed to Napoleon but more recently made famous by Anders Breivik, the Norwegian white supremacist terrorist who murdered 77 people in 2011—in what could be interpreted as a proclamation that he’s above the law, a signal to his followers to commit violence on his behalf, or both.
No less dispiriting has been the cavalcade of mainstream media organizations normalizing the new regime, or the corporations kissing Trump’s ring and doing a 180 on support for DEI and LGBTQ people—not to mention the weak responses from many elected Democrats. It’s things like this that have convinced some people that the shining city on a hill is experiencing severe urban decay.
Brett, a San Diego-based TikTok user who did not disclose his last name, started a channel, Escape the USA, making videos that provide practical advice to Americans hoping to leave the country. While the channel is only a little more than a month old, it already has close to 11,000 followers. Having previously lived in Paris for nearly a year in 2014 following a health scare, he hopes to return to Europe and either find a job or publish his fantasy novel. But he specifically cited the Trump administration as his main reason for wanting to leave and said he began researching how to leave the country after the January 6 Capitol insurrection, and then saving money when Trump announced his candidacy. Now, he sees the potential for history to repeat itself.
“Hitler went after those who were not the same as others: disabled, LGBTQ individuals and clearly Jews,” said Brett, who is also gay and from a Jewish family, in an interview. “[Trump is] already categorizing subsets of individuals. It may not be tomorrow, but it’s definitely bound to happen soon.”
Naturally, descent into full-blown genocidal tyranny is not yet inevitable, particularly as Trump and Musk’s actions have encountered resistance, especially from the courts. And with many Western countries, especially in Europe, experiencing their own problems with far-right politics, the number of safe havens from autocracy is depressingly low, particularly as figures like Musk and Vice President JD Vance openly interfere in German elections by endorsing the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party, as Vance did in a February 14 speech at the Munich Security Conference that left European leaders stunned. Nevertheless, Trump and his cronies have clearly spent their four years out of power carefully studying the authoritarian playbook of leaders like Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán. Now, Hungarians are warning us that if we don’t stop Trump, we could suffer their country’s fate. And lest anyone think far-right authoritarians are better at economic management, Hungary is a sign of what’s to come: Their economy is teetering while it hemorrhages people who no longer see a future there for themselves.
I hope we do stop Trump and Musk’s takeover of this country. But we have to be honest and acknowledge that if we fail—and fail we might—it could be a long and difficult time before democracy returns. It took 17 years for that to happen in Chile and 36 years in Spain. The Third Reich lasted “only” 12 years, but Hitler’s spell over Germany didn’t break until after the world’s deadliest war and genocide.
Even if the Democrats retake both houses of Congress and the White House, they will preside over a profoundly broken nation, where Trump distilled centuries’ worth of American poison into a fascist movement that will remain a threat for decades to come, with a best-case scenario being a whiplash cycle every four to eight years of decency and horror.
Obviously, emigrating won’t solve this country’s problems. But many of those problems will take a lot more than an election to solve because they stem from deep structural flaws in our system of government rooted in an antiquated constitution and a political culture contaminated by selfishness, ignorance, cruelty, violence, and authoritarian white, Christian supremacy. This is why it’s seemingly impossible to meaningfully address even serious problems like gun violence, let alone have nice things like universal health care, while other industrialized nations have accomplished both feats and more with little to no fuss. It’s why this country rejected a highly qualified presidential candidate who happened to be a Black woman, in favor of a psychopathic fascist who all but promised to ruin it.
If people wish to stay here and fight for a better country, then all power to them. But it’s also important to understand that many Americans have spent their lives fighting just to exist, and they have now watched 77.2 million fellow citizens spit in their faces by voting for Trump and countless more recklessly enable Trump’s victory by voting third-party, or abstaining from voting altogether. Thus, they may conclude that leaving for the sake of their well-being and sanity is a better choice than struggling in vain to save a country that apparently doesn’t value them from itself.
It’s a very personal choice, whether to stay and fight or go into exile, as New York University historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat illustrated in a January 3 Substack post, after receiving frequent queries from Americans about the possibility of leaving. Most, she wrote, will neither stay and fight nor flee: “You stay put, keep your head down and your criticism of the government private. That way you and your loved ones can minimize any adverse consequences while you ‘wait it out.’” And life in exile is hardly romantic–it’s filled with longing for home and a lot of guilt.
But if people decide it’s better to bug out, that’s really none of Bill Maher’s business, and it’s certainly not his place to scold those who are not straight, white, male multi-millionaires like him. So why get all worked up about it?
The reason it stings some people is because the entire notion of the U.S. being a country people flee from rather than fleeing to turns American exceptionalism on its head. Much like right-wing superpatriots’ reflexive defensiveness when someone points out how far we lag other industrialized nations in areas like health care access or public transportation, it’s a reminder of the hollowness of the refrain that we are “The Greatest Nation in the World”—a pin popping the balloon that is the American ego. Maher inadvertently reinforced this when he correctly pointed out that the U.S. is a nicer place to live than China or Uganda, but had to resort to jokes about bland Dutch food and elderly Italians playing bocce when comparing us to other industrialized democracies. It shows how full of ourselves we remain as a country, even as our political conditions have degraded to the point that some of us see a better life abroad than at home.
It’s emigration, not immigration, that should worry Americans. Because people wanting to leave, even if a relatively small number actually do it, is a sign that this country is losing its capacity to address even its most pressing problems. And authoritarian countries do not typically benefit when minorities, young people, and those with valuable skills start fleeing.
So, ridicule Americans who want to flee abroad all you want. But remember, there’s a reason why Germany produced the most Nobel laureates before World War II, but the U.S. took the lead afterward. The United States’ loss will be some other nation’s gain—a lesson that we used to teach the rest of the world, but no longer.
