I sometimes wonder whether the advent of global warming might revive the climatological determinism of Charles-Louis de Secondat, baron of Montesquieu, popularly known as the Enlightenment philosophe Montesquieu. Here in the global north, our ideas about governance seem to get shakier as the planet grows hotter, and there’s a cyclical aspect, as well. Notions that take hold in the months of July and August are apt to look silly come September. The current presumed centrality of the Epstein files to the fate of the Democrats is, I believe, a case in point.
Montesquieu argued in L’Esprit des Lois (1748) that despotism prevailed in warm climates because hot weather depleted those human qualities necessary to sustain enlightened governance. There’s much for a modern audience to object to here. Climatological determinism can be used to justify ugly prejudices against less developed nations. It also jibes poorly with early history, when advanced civilization flourished in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America long before it did in Europe. Democracy, meanwhile, was born in Athens, where the temperature seldom falls below 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
And yet.
Sometimes I think Montesquieu may have been onto something when I consider that the developed world is simultaneously growing both hotter and more despotic—and therefore (among many other difficulties) ever less competent to address climate change. The advent of air conditioning improved civilization in many ways, but it hasn’t improved democracy—not lately, anyhow. And at no time of year do Americans’ ever more sun-blasted crania entertain screwy notions as they do during high summer. Those of us in the press have long recognized this (going back to 1861) by calling July and August “the silly season.” Does our ever-warming planet make it sillier still?
These (possibly overheated) thoughts are prompted by news coverage suggesting the Democratic Party has found its way out of the wilderness by clobbering Donald Trump with the many salacious tendrils of the Epstein scandal. To which I say, Oh, please. I never thought the Democrats were so deep in the wilderness as conventional wisdom dictated. But setting that aside, exploiting MAGA divisions over releasing investigative files concerning the late plutocrat pedophile Jeffrey Epstein won’t solve the party’s problems.
To be clear, I don’t fault the Democrats for making hay out of the Justice Department’s failure to release the Epstein files. By spreading far-right conspiracy theories about a nonexistent Epstein client list, FBI Director Kash Patel, FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino, and Attorney General Pam Bondi made their bed. Now they must lie in it.
Here’s Patel before he assumed office: “What the hell are the House Republicans doing? They have the majority. You can’t get the list? ... Put on your big boy pants and let us know who the pedophiles are.”
Here’s Bongino: “What do Clinton, Obama officials, big money leftists, a former Prime Minister of Israel—why do they want to make this Jeffrey Epstein story go away so bad?”
And here’s Bondi: The list is “sitting on my desk right now to review.”
Trump was more cautious, because he socialized with Epstein for years—a well-documented reality that MAGA bizarrely ignores—but Trump fed the conspiracizing too. In 2019, Trump reposted a tweet after Epstein hanged himself in jail that suggested Bill Clinton had something to do with Epstein’s death. In 2024, Trump pledged to release the Epstein files.
Now that these same conspiracy-mongers say there is no client list, they’re finding out the hard way that those geeked up on conspiracy theories don’t appreciate being told, “Nothing to see here.”
Trump is mentioned repeatedly in the Epstein files (Bondi warned Trump about that in May), though not in any seriously compromising way, apparently. That’s no surprise. Bill Clinton is surely mentioned too—again, not likely in any terribly compromising way. Trump’s presence helps explain why Bondi decided not to release the Epstein files, even though she knew sitting on them would incur MAGA’s wrath. Congressional Democrats are right to demand that Bondi release them, and to try to force House votes on the matter, because it makes congressional Republicans look stupid, most especially Mike Johnson. Johnson initially called on Bondi to “put everything out there and let the people decide,” but later he sent the House into early recess to avoid a vote about it.
But the benefit of these political theatrics is limited by the apparent reality that full release of the files would be irresponsible. That’s because (according to an FBI memo) the files “include a large volume of images of Epstein, images and videos of victims who are either minors or appear to be minors, and over ten thousand downloaded videos and images of illegal child sex abuse material and other pornography.” The files also include “victim names and likenesses, physical descriptions, places of birth, associates, and employment history.” It’s in nobody’s interest to release such material, and it’s hard to imagine the government ever will.
The Democrats recognize this problem, and they’re signed on to excluding such material from public release. But conspiracists won’t be appeased by partial release, and at some point MAGA crackpots will blame both Democrats and Republicans for suppressing evidence. Also, although Trump’s reputation might be tarnished somewhat by the release of any additional proof that he socialized frequently with Epstein, so might Clinton’s. Would the MAGA cult even notice that Trump’s name is mentioned? Its reaction to The Wall Street Journal’s scoop that Trump wrote a vaguely naughty letter to celebrate Epstein’s 50th birthday suggests not. MAGA made it an occasion to rally around Trump, because MAGA hates the press even more than it hates Epstein.
What all this adds up to is that Democrats have little interest in continuing to press Bondi to release the Epstein files. They will try to pass a bill forcing her hand only so long as they know they won’t succeed. They’ll stop if any danger arises that they’ll prevail. For these reasons, I don’t expect to hear much about Epstein and his files after the House reconvenes September 2.
That’s the bad news.
The good news is that there are plenty of other ways to attack Trump. Trump is doubling the budget deficit and throwing 10 to 15 million people off Medicaid so he can give rich people a $4 trillion tax cut. Trump’s rounding up immigrants indiscriminately, the vast majority of them with no criminal convictions, so he can meet an arbitrary deportation quota of one million people per year. In the process, Trump’s eliminating jobs for almost as many native-born Americans (2.6 million) as foreign-born ones (3.3 million). Trump’s tariffs are bringing inflation back. Did I mention Trump is a convicted felon who’s using the presidency to enrich himself?
The Epstein files were a decent political target for a couple of dog-day weeks, but when the weather turns cooler there’ll be more important stuff to talk about. Montesquieu would understand.
