Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sure looked like a presidential candidate this weekend. She attended a policy conference in Munich that often draws potential White House hopefuls, including Governor Gavin Newsom and Senator Ruben Gallego this year. Her aides previewed her remarks to the media and told reporters who had advised her on them (former Bernie Sanders foreign policy aide Matt Duss, for one), as presidential campaigns often do. And in multiple appearances on stage, Ocasio-Cortez spoke in broad, presidential-y language, calling for a “rules-based order” and “working-class centered politics.”
Should AOC run for president? Among those rumored to be considering 2028 candidacies, I’m most aligned with Ocasio-Cortez on policy. I would be more excited about her being in the Oval Office than any of the other rumored candidates. But I’m torn about whether I want her to run—and I suspect other progressives feel similarly.
The big reason that Ocasio-Cortez shouldn’t run is that she has a very clear path to defeat and a much hazier one to victory. It’s easy to imagine a repeat of 2020. Ocasio-Cortez seems poised to dominate among progressive voters and younger ones, as Sanders did in 2020. So she has a very strong chance of finishing second in the nomination process. At the same time, more moderate Democrats, older ones, and/or those most concerned about a candidate’s chances in the general election might coalesce behind a more centrist figure, the way they did Joe Biden in 2020. Back then, many Democrats were worried about nominating a self-identified socialist (Sanders), a woman (Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris), or a person of color (Cory Booker, Harris), fearing those characteristics would turn off swing voters in a general election. Ocasio-Cortez is all three of those characteristics in one person—and she’s also unusually young for a presidential candidate. She is 36 now and will be 39 on Election Day in 2028.
Older Democrats tend to vote at much higher rates than younger ones, so an old vs. young battle will favor the candidate of older voters—and that almost certainly won’t be Ocasio-Cortez.
So the pessimist in me says that Ocasio-Cortez should skip a very difficult presidential contest, thereby avoiding a loss that would diminish her stature. Perhaps Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose term ends in 2028, opts against reelection, and she runs to replace him. Ocasio-Cortez wouldn’t be a shoo-in there either, as I suspect Wall Street and other more centrist forces in New York politics would strongly oppose her Senate candidacy. But Ocasio-Cortez’s odds of winning a New York Senate Democratic primary are obviously higher than a presidential primary, where she would face many other very skilled politicians and a more conservative electorate.
Once in the Senate, Ocasio-Cortez could build a base of power in that chamber and perhaps position herself for a future presidential run. And if Ocasio-Cortez neither ran for the Senate nor the presidency, she would remain one of the most high-profile politicians in the country.
But there’s a real case for Ocasio-Cortez to run. She really could win the primary, for several reasons. First of all, as my colleague Alex Shephard has written repeatedly, the Democratic base is now deeply distrustful of the party establishment, much more so than six years ago. Party elites running an “Anybody But AOC” operation might not defeat Ocasio-Cortez as it did Sanders. Democratic voters will be more skeptical of claims from party leaders that one candidate is clearly more electable than another. A wave of endorsements from older Democrats, as Biden received in 2020, may not be that helpful in 2028.
The New York City Democratic electorate is obviously more liberal than the party nationally, but it was still telling that endorsements from prominent Democrats such as Bill Clinton and James Clyburn didn’t put Andrew Cuomo over the top in last year’s mayoral primary against Zohran Mamdani. Maine upstart Graham Platner remains a viable U.S. Senate candidate even after his Nazi-tattoo and other controversies and party leaders’ clear preference for Governor Janet Mills.
Second, Democrats may be hungry for a progressive candidate in a way that they weren’t six years ago. That was my takeaway from the poll of Democratic voters that The New Republic released last week. Forty-six percent of respondents said the party’s 2028 nominee should be a progressive, ahead of those who wanted a liberal candidate (23 percent) or a moderate (32 percent). That moderate bloc would be Ocasio-Cortez’s biggest challenge, so it’s ideal for her that it appears to be only a third of the party. About a third of Democrats think the party is too conservative on domestic policy issues, while fewer than 10 percent think it’s too liberal, again aligning the base with Ocasio-Cortez.
That poll was particularly favorable for her. A whopping 85 percent of Democrats said they have favorable views of the New York congresswoman, the highest of the 12 Democratic politicians that respondents were asked about. Perhaps even more importantly, only 7 percent of Democrats said they have unfavorable views of her, tied for the third-lowest among the 12. (Only 5 percent of Dems have unfavorable views of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and 6 percent of Maryland Governor Wes Moore, but huge blocs of respondents said they were “not sure” how they feel about those two.)
Also, while 36 percent of Democrats said the party needs to nominate a man, the other 64 percent in the TNR survey think “the right woman can win.”
Third, Ocasio-Cortez is not Sanders. Perhaps she has less appeal among older white voters and men than the Vermont senator. But it’s easy to imagine her running well ahead of him among Black, Latino, and women voters, particularly the younger people in those cohorts. She is charismatic in a way that the senator isn’t. Perhaps Mamdani could not win a national Democratic primary either, but I wonder if his 2025 run, not Sanders 2020, is the best analogy for Ocasio-Cortez 2028.
Fourth, this could be Ocasio-Cortez’s time. Her combination of youth, economic populism, and social progressivism is a perfect contrast to Trump. But by 2032 or 2040, perhaps the country is in a different place or another Democrat has eclipsed her. It was smart for Barack Obama to run for president in 2008, even though that seemed early.
Let’s say Ocasio-Cortez runs but doesn’t win the nomination. That might be bad for her personally. But for progressives like me, that still might be a good outcome. Strong challengers from the left forced Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 to adopt more progressive stands. I suspect Ocasio-Cortez would have the same effect on Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and other likely 2028 candidates who aren’t as progressive as she. In Munich, Ocasio-Cortez described what has happened in Gaza as a genocide, praised the idea of wealth taxes and condemned corporate monopolies. Those positions are correct. They are shared by many Democratic voters. But not by most of the party’s other 2028 hopefuls.
If Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t run, the 2028 Democratic primary will lack one of the country’s most powerful progressive voices. I suspect Representative Ro Khanna and other leftist candidates will run. But other than Sanders and Warren, who aren’t going to run due to their age, there is no more famous left-wing politician than Ocasio-Cortez.
So put me down as undecided. I was super-excited to see Ocasio-Cortez in Munich and liked what she said. I am not fully convinced Ocasio-Cortez should run for president. But right after the 2024 election, I would have said that the Democrats definitely should not nominate a 39-year-old Latina socialist from New York City as their next presidential candidate. But from joining Sanders on the “Fighting Oligarchy” tour to endorsing Mamdani to her comments in Munich, Ocasio-Cortez keeps showing prescience and depth. Perhaps the right woman is staring right in front of us, and we should embrace her leadership.
