Flipping four Senate seats, which would give Democrats a 51-seat majority in the upper house, is a daunting enough challenge for this midterm cycle. But that’s the easy part. Realistically, the party really needs to flip five. Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman simply can’t be relied upon anymore. He seems more angered by the progressive faction in the Democratic Party than the antidemocratic radicals who run the GOP and the country. So Democrats must invest heavily in Iowa, Texas, and other traditionally red states that will be hard to win, in order to get a 52-seat majority and make him irrelevant—or to spur him to make a party switch. A Senate where John Fetterman is the swing vote cannot be a steady bulwark against President Trump and his misrule.
Fetterman, in a recent interview with The New York Times, declared that he would “never” switch parties. I don’t trust that promise. Fetterman noted that he agrees with the Democrats on the vast majority of policy issues. But based on his public comments, the senator seems fixated on two particular matters: Israeli-Palestinian policy and the progressive-socialist left. And on those two matters, the divide between Fetterman and the Democratic Party is huge and growing. The Democratic left that Fetterman goes on Fox News to bash is surging in numbers and power—in no small part because of the status quo that Fetterman has done much to uphold. Antipathy toward Israel has expanded from progressive politicians to even average Democratic voters. I worry that one day, say in April 2027, someone like Representative Ayanna Pressley tweets something that annoys Fetterman, he declares on X, “I didn’t leave the party, the party left me,’ and immediately becomes a Republican or an independent.
Also, it may eventually be smart (and perhaps even necessary) for Fetterman to leave the Democratic Party. If he runs for reelection in 2028 as a Democrat, he will have a hard time winning a primary. His poll numbers among Pennsylvania Democrats (not just progressives) are terrible. Only 19 percent of Democrats approve of him, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, while 69 percent disapprove. One poll from last week had him trailing “someone else” by 18 points.
Meanwhile, he keeps taking high-profile actions that will inflame stalwart Democrats, such as writing an op-ed in defense of the filibuster. And he shouldn’t just be worried about progressive challengers. A traditional center-left Democrat, such as ex-Representative Conor Lamb, who Fetterman beat in the 2022 Senate primary, might knock him off too. Someone like Lamb could say, “I will be a loyal Democrat and not go on Fox News and bash the party all the time” and win votes from Fetterman.
It’s entirely possible that by this time next year, Fetterman is running in a Democratic primary against a well-funded opponent who is endorsed by a big bloc of Democratic politicians and is well ahead of the incumbent senator in the polls. Then, leaving the party would not entirely be Fetterman’s decision—the Democrats would have effectively kicked him out. (That’s what happened to then–Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema in 2022.)
Fetterman’s best chances of winning reelection are either hoping Republicans adopt him as their candidate or running as an independent and winning a three-person race by wooing moderate voters from both parties. If he chooses the GOP path, there’s no better way for Fetterman to ingratiate himself to Republicans voters than leaving the Democratic Party when he’s its fifty-first Senate vote, thereby putting the GOP back in the majority.
So no matter what Fetterman claims now, the chances of him leaving the Democratic Party next year or in 2028 are substantial enough that the party needs to price it into its midterms calculus.
Let’s say that in the short term Fetterman remains a Democrat. If there are only 51 Democratic senators, every member holds the majority in their hands. I don’t trust Fetterman to use that awesome power for good. In theory, the Senate majority leader (likely Chuck Schumer in a Dem majority) controls the chamber. Schumer won’t schedule votes for Trump-backed policies or nominations that most Democrats oppose. But imagine if there was a Supreme Court vacancy and Trump nominates someone who is strongly pro-Israel and anti-DSA and would be confirmed if Fetterman joined the Republicans. Fetterman could threaten to switch parties unless Schumer brought that judge up for a vote. Are you confident he wouldn’t use his power that way? I’m not. In fact, screwing over Democrats on a very high-profile vote seems the exact kind of thing Fetterman dreams of doing. It’s like—you know—writing an op-ed defending the filibuster knowing that the rest of the party believes that gutting the filibuster is a first step to enacting essential pro-democracy reforms.
And while the majority leader generally controls the calendar, there are certain amendments and policies that individual senators can bring up for votes. Fetterman would almost certainly join 49 Republicans and Vice President JD Vance at times, in a way most other Democratic senators wouldn’t.
What’s important to underscore is that Fetterman does not act like a normal moderate or centrist Democrat, such as say, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan. I don’t always agree with Slotkin’s votes or speeches, but I’m not worried about her undermining core Democratic goals or helping Trump. Fetterman’s different. He’s not a moderate or centrist Democrat as much as an anti-Democrat Democrat, or really a Democratic troll. Like Sinema and Joe Manchin a few years ago, he wants to announce as loudly as possible that the party has gone too far left and punish it for doing so. That’s why he’s appearing on Fox and bashing Bernie Sanders so often. That’s the worst possible kind of Democrat to be part of a majority of only 51.
Fetterman’s behavior makes it essential for Democrats to win a big majority this fall. Here’s the good news—they can. Either because of weak GOP incumbents, strong Democratic candidates, or Trump’s unpopularity, polls show Democrats tied or leading in the Senate seats currently held by Republicans in Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas. Winning five of those races is a very tall order, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. The party’s various super PACs and big-money organizations as well as liberal grassroots groups need to be broadening, not shrinking, their maps and ambitions this fall.
Independent candidates running in Nebraska and South Dakota are opportunities to potentially deny Republicans Senate seats they might have otherwise won. And with Trump’s unpopularity only growing, perhaps super-long shots such as Mississippi are in play too. Whatever the path, the goal for Democrats must be a 52–48 or 51–48, or 50–47 Senate, one where Fetterman couldn’t put the GOP back in the majority on a whim.
A few years ago, people used to joke about “President Manchin.” The West Virginia senator was one of the most powerful people in Washington when Democrats had a 51–50 Senate majority (by dint of Kamala Harris’s tiebreaker) in 2021 and 2022. He could and often did block Joe Biden’s initiatives. It was a cruel joke, though. The Democratic Party and liberalism were held hostage by an unpredictable, erratic man more annoyed by people trying to expand voting rights than those trying to restrict them. We can’t afford a repeat of that. John Fetterman, more supportive of the Netanyahu administration than the Mamdani administration, doesn’t deserve to be a senator at all, let alone the most important one. A successful 2026 for Democrats will make John Fetterman Senator Irrelevant, whatever party he’s in.
