By now, it’s no longer in doubt that Donald Trump’s towering unpopularity—driven by a Trumpian trifecta of failure comprised of inflation, tariffs, and war—is allowing Democrats to contest some pretty red territory this fall. So how wide is the battleground map actually getting as we enter the final stretch of the 2026 midterms?
One simple way to answer this question: Follow the money. Trump’s super PAC, which is called MAGA Inc., has just unleashed well over $100 million in spending via two smaller organizations its operatives have created. We obtained data on TV ad spending by those groups from a Democratic source that shows which districts they’re targeting.
Here’s the big topline finding: Trump’s super PAC and its cutout organizations are spending big money in at least 17 districts that Trump carried in 2024 by over five points. That includes six districts that Trump won by over 10 points.
Here it is in chart form:
That’s a very broad battlefield. The list we obtained—compiled by a source who relied on Democratic Party ad-tracking data—comprises House districts that MAGA Inc. is already spending in or has reserved time in via two cutout organizations, “No Going Back PAC” and “Safety and Affordability PAC.” Our list roughly tracks (but isn’t precisely the same as) the districts obtained by Teddy Schleifer of The New York Times and other reporters.
But what really makes this list of districts significant and eye-opening is ranking them by Trump’s 2024 totals, as we did above. Of the 27 House districts this MAGA Inc. spending is targeting, 19 are GOP districts, and 26 were carried by Trump. That he won most by more than five points sheds more light on what this expanding battlefield really looks like, with areas that Trump won solidly two years ago suddenly in peril for the GOP.
“It’s an acknowledgment that things have shifted in a huge way since 2024,” David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report, told me. “Republicans have hemorrhaged support among independent voters, they’ve got a real enthusiasm problem, and as a result, districts that ordinarily would vote handily for Trump and Republicans are now in play.”
Notably, six districts that Trump carried by double digits are also being targeted by MAGA Inc.’s cutouts. It’s telling that GOP-held districts like Texas’s 15th and Kentucky’s 6th (which went for Trump by very large margins) now require major reinforcements.
“If those are in danger, then a lot of other seats that are considered similarly safe for Republicans must be on the chopping block,” Larry Sabato, the founder of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told me.
The targeting of Texas seats that Trump won by double digits captures another big story: Trump’s dramatic slippage among Latinos. Texas’s infamous redistricting this year was supposed to make Democratic-held seats (the 36th district and the 35th, the latter of which has been redrawn to transform it from a previously Democratic to a safe Republican district) easy GOP pickups.
But Trump’s deep unpopularity and the potential for a blue wave mean Republicans must spend heavily to try to flip them anyway. As Wasserman told me, when Republicans redrew the Texas map, they assumed that “if they just made these seats redder to turn them into double-digit Trump seats, they would win them.” Now, he said, the erosion of Latino support for Trump in places like the Rio Grande Valley means “these races are very close.”
In short, Trump’s super PAC empire now sees an urgent need to spend big on districts that Texas Republicans just heavily gerrymandered to the GOP’s benefit, after Trump corruptly commanded them to do so. Oops.
None of this, of course, guarantees that Republicans will lose the elections. Overall, Republican spending is now projected to swamp Democratic spending from today to Election Day by a significant margin. That is going to hit hard. We’re talking about a GOP edge that could run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Yet there are other signs that the map is now expanding in Democrats’ favor. This week’s Times poll found Democrats ahead in the generic House ballot matchup by nearly nine points. A new Fox survey finds that lead at seven points, and a YouGov poll has Democrats up 12 points. That last one is probably too high, but the polling averages also show the Democratic position slowly continuing to improve. That suggests the Times’s finding of a nearly nine-point spread—comparable to the party’s 2018 House popular vote victory, which was a blue wave—could very well be right on the money.
Meanwhile, some forecasters have Democratic odds of winning the Senate at their highest point yet. Democrats must flip four GOP-held seats—at least three in states Trump won and at least two he carried by double digits. Given all this, while the Senate is on a knife’s edge, those improving Democratic odds themselves hint at a battlefield that’s now reaching deep into Trump country.
Republicans never counted on Trump being quite this toxic. Trump himself probably still can’t accept what a massive drag he’s become on his party. But whatever data they’re feeding him to keep the Audience of One’s spirits high, his super PAC operatives certainly have.
