After last year’s Globes, the Oscars race slimmed down considerably. Carol, The Big Short, and Spotlight were all big losers at the 2016 Globes and, while Spotlight took Best Picture at the Oscars, all three struck out in the acting categories. (Carol was shut out completely, while The Big Short and Spotlight both won in writing categories.)
This year’s Globes also had its share of losers. The (actually pretty good, he says before quickly ducking) Mel Gibson redemption project Hacksaw Ridge and Hell or High Water, one of the year’s three best films, lost all three of their nominations. Both will probably still be nominated for Best Picture but are even darker dark horses than they would have been before. To be fair, every movie that wasn’t La La Land could probably be considered a loser—despite having a host of diverse and powerful movies to choose from (most notably Moonlight, Fences, and Hidden Figures), Hollywood once again rewarded a very white movie about how Hollywood is the best. But, while La La Land may emerge from the Globes as the Best Picture favorite, the race for Best Picture still seems to be neck and neck between La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea.
Casey Affleck, despite being a monster, remains the frontrunner for Best Actor for his performance in Manchester, but the other acting categories also seem wide open. While Isabelle Huppert won for Elle and Aaron Taylor-Johnson took home the Supporting Actor statue for Nocturnal Animals, it’s hard not to attribute both victories to the Hollywood Foreign Press. Meanwhile, the Globes’ political undercurrent should carry over to the Oscars, pushing Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea in the Best Picture race and the other acting categories.
So, while the Globes had some clear losers—the biggest being Jimmy Fallon, who was awful—the Oscars were going to be dominated by a three-movie race before Sunday and they still are going forward.