Is Farm Country About to Turn on Trump?

The Financial Times reported Tuesday that farmers in America’s Corn Belt region are facing their toughest economic crisis in 40 years. Last month, the American Farm Bureau Federation, an industry group, projected that without government intervention, farmers growing nine principal crops will face $32 billion in losses in 2027, after losing an estimated $31 billion in 2026.

“This is the worst financial downturn in the sector since the 1980s,” John Hansen, president of Nebraska Farmers Union, told FT.

Matt Bailey, who grows corn and soybeans in eastern Nebraska, told FT the strain was a result of rising input costs. Bailey said that 10 years ago, phosphorus-rich fertilizer used at planting time cost $470 per ton; the same product now costs more than $900. “Where do you start with that? How do you budget for that?” Bailey said.

The alarm bells have been blaring for months. Trump’s war with Iran halted trade through the Strait of Hormuz just as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere would typically order fertilizer for the upcoming planting season. The American Farm Bureau Federation has warned that the shock to the fertilizer supply chain would drive prices even higher and threaten food security and national security.

That’s not the only reason farmers may not be happy with Trump. Last week, the American Farm Bureau Federation voiced concerns that Trump’s plan to import tariff-free beef would create long-term damage to the already struggling American beef industry. On Monday, the group urged the Trump administration to resume trade talks with Canada after Trump detonated negotiations.

Trump has historically relied on the support of Corn Belt voters, where farming-dependent counties backed him by an average of 78 percent in 2024. Now, with Trump’s approval rating reaching record lows and midterm elections just around the corner, the president may need to act quickly if he hopes to hold onto their support—and his Republican congressional majorities.

With hours on the clock until polls close, Republicans are betting that Senator Darline Graham—the temporary fill-in for her late brother, Lindsey Graham—will be iced out of South Carolina’s GOP runoff race. Graham is up against Representative Ralph Norman, a five-term lawmaker who has represented the Palmetto State in various legislative capacities since 2005.

The junior Graham took the reins of her sibling’s powerful office last month, after the 71-year-old suddenly passed away from an aortic dissection. Despite having zero relevant experience or qualifications, Graham gained the president’s endorsement and was subsequently appointed by South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster.

Within the span of a few short weeks, the 62-year-old undertook a gambit to make her interim responsibilities more permanent, throwing her name on the ballot to be formally selected by the state electorate. The money poured in behind her, with chief executives, lobbyists, and prominent Republican donors pumping thousands of dollars into her nascent campaign, violating the weekly thresholds set by the Federal Election Commission.

The country was stunned earlier this month when Graham pulled ahead of more than half a dozen candidates in the Republican primary—but now, some Republicans believe that may have been the zenith of her political career.

Public opinion on Graham plummeted last week when she flopped on a softball debate question regarding Taiwan, confessing that “national security is not my thing.” In the same debate, Graham forgot the population of her own state, falsely claiming that South Carolina’s population is 50 million people—more than New York and Florida combined. Fact check: The state’s population is fewer than six million people.

Multiple Republican sources told NOTUS that, despite Donald Trump’s efforts, the sexagenarian is increasingly unlikely to win South Carolina’s primary runoff.

“You’re running a campaign with a virtual unknown that took on all of her brother’s unfavorables without any of the goodwill that her brother has in a very short-sprint special election,” one Republican operative told NOTUS. Exactly why Graham is in a bad position in the race “isn’t rocket science,” according to the source.

A lack of reliable or neutral polling has left much of the country’s electoral odds in the dark, including in South Carolina.

“Tomorrow’s election is the biggest black box in recent memory here,” a South Carolina–based Republican operative told NOTUS.

Whoever pulls through the runoff Tuesday evening will eventually have to face off against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November general election. (Though the last time South Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1998.)

But unlike other midterm-bound candidates who have been advised by party leaders to separate themselves from the president’s negative polling, Graham still needs to ride Trump’s brand if she wants to win big.

“Her only good is hyper-engaged Trump voters. There is no Darline Graham voter,” the operative told NOTUS. “No one’s voting for Darline because of Darline.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins refused to speak on what countries President Trump plans to import tariff-free beef from amid growing backlash over his emergency effort to lower beef prices as midterm elections approach. 

“About the beef imports, what specific countries have been in talks with the U.S. about stepping up those beef imports, aside from Mexico?” a reporter asked Rollins on Tuesday.

“I am not privy to talk about that. I think the conversations are still going on, and that’s Ambassador [Jamieson] Greer who’s finalizing what exactly that looks like, and I think the president’s involved in that as well,” she said.

It’s certainly alarming that Rollins is unable to be transparent and honest with Americans about where the cheap beef is coming from. 

“The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is not privy to talk about 300,000 metric tons of food that, according to the President, is right now making its way to the dinner tables of countless ordinary Americans?” The New Republic’s Greg Sargent wrote on X. “Isn’t she curious about this? Didn’t she ask Trump for clarification of it?”

This beef import is something Trump cooked up to offset the cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by his war on Iran, as well as a historic cattle shortage—although the Trump administration blames former President Biden for that.

“As we work to rebuild this herd and help our ranchers, for the next 90 days, the United States will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out of quota tariff.  We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week. “This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again.”

Many within his own party disagree, voicing concerns about American beef farmers being priced out of the market by these mystery foreign importers. 

“Americans want U.S. beef on the table—not foreign imports. Wyoming ranchers produce the highest quality beef in the world. Our ranchers don’t ask for special treatment. They simply want a fair marketplace,” Republican Senator John Barrasso wrote. “It needs to be easier—not harder—for Wyoming ranchers to feed America. I will continue to fight for policies that strengthen Wyoming beef producers and invest in the American cattle herd.”

“I want to lower prices but this is a bad idea. Iowa cattle producers raise the highest quality beef in the world. They’ve faced tough market conditions for years, and increasing beef imports would lead to more uncertainty and instability for our farmers,” Iowa Representative Ashley Hinson added. “We should be focused on cutting red tape for cattle producers, lowering the cost of production, and supporting market-based solutions to support Iowa producers and lower costs for consumers.”

Actual farmers seem to feel similarly as well.

“I believe that this is a raw deal by the president. You know, here’s the president who keeps making the announcement that he loves farmers, he loves cattlemen, and then undermines us with that 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef that we don’t even know where it’s coming from,” farmer, activist, and National Black Farmers Association founder John W. Boyd Jr. said Tuesday on MS NOW.  

“[This is] the worst time in history for America’s farmers, going out losing our farms every day, and the president makes another sour deal, and punches the American farmers in the face.” 

A federal judge has ordered the government to release one of the witnesses to ICE’s fatal shooting of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston. 

U.S. District Judge Alfred H. Bennett ruled Tuesday that Daniel Tirado Pantoja, who was a passenger in the van driven by Salgado Araujo when he was shot on July 7, should be released from ICE detention as he “has no criminal history, is not a flight risk, and does not otherwise pose a danger to the community,” The Texas Tribune reports. 

Bennett wrote in his ruling that the government has 48 hours to release Tirado Pantoja and that he must be given three hours’ notice of his release, along with the time and location. Federal authorities also can’t re-detain him without proving to an immigration judge that he is a danger to the community or a flight risk. 

“Courts in the Southern District of Texas have held that the continued detention of a noncitizen who has no criminal history and has not been shown to be a flight risk or danger to the community violates procedural due process,” Bennett wrote. “The Court sees no reason to reach a different conclusion here.”

Last month, Salgado Araujo was driving his brother Victor, Tirado Pantoja, and José Trinidad Rojas Pliego to a construction job. ICE agents in two unmarked cars began following them through Magnolia Park in Houston, which has a large Latino population. ICE claimed they had to fire on Salgado Arajuo in self-defense as he tried to ram the agents with his vehicle while trying to get away. 

But the other men in the van refuted that account, saying that the ICE cars hit the van from behind and from the side before one agent fired, hitting Salgado Araujo in the stomach. ICE detained all of the van’s surviving passengers, and a different judge ordered Rojas Pliego’s release last month, but not before the government tried to pressure all three to self-deport. Of the three, Victor Salgado Araujo remains in ICE custody at a Conroe, Texas, detention center.

ICE continues to act with minimal, if any, restraint and appears to be openly flouting the law in its arrests and deportations. The families of its targets live in fear of their loved ones suddenly being detained or worse. Salgado Araujo’s son only found out about his father’s death from a video he saw on Facebook. These family members also can’t expect justice from the Trump administration, and the name of the ICE agent who pulled the trigger on Salgado Araujo has yet to be released.  

Dolly Parton, the award-winning singer, songwriter, actress, philanthropist, and all-around all-star human being, died on Tuesday at the age of 80.

Her death was announced by Bryan Seaver, her nephew and head of security, in a video posted to her official Instagram. As a prolific country singer and humanitarian, Parton’s work transcended the stark political boundaries that have set in across the modern cultural landscape.

“I don’t do politics,” Parton once said on a podcast. “I have too many fans on both sides of the fence. Of course, I have my opinion about everything, but I learned years ago to keep your mouth shut about things.” She even joked about avoiding political rallies. “I think my joke is that my daddy was a Republican, and my momma was a Democrat, and I’m a hypocrite!”

Rather than shilling for politicians or parties, Parton’s values were brightly illuminated in her more than 3,000 original songs—including the pro-labor anthem “9 to 5”—as well as her extensive work as a humanitarian.

Here, she revealed her beliefs without ever having to declaim them. Over the course of her career, Parton urged her fellow Christians to accept and embrace members of the LGBTQ community and defended the rights of transgender people—making her a target for certain figures on the right. She was an outspoken supporter of the Black Lives Matter movement, and she donated the royalties from Whitney Houston’s cover of “I Will Always Love You” to the Black community in Nashville. During one of this country’s darkest moments in 2020, Parton donated $1 million to coronavirus research at Vanderbilt University, which helped fund Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine.

She also founded the Dollywood Foundation, a nonprofit aimed at improving education and uplifting children, donated money for cancer research and treatment, and set up funds for victims of natural disasters. Her Imagination Library provides free books to children all around the world.

Already, politicians who didn’t agree with Parton’s actual values are mourning her death. President Donald Trump posted a statement calling her “one of the greatest Country singers, and far beyond, EVER.” Even he can’t deny that essential truth—nor could he deny her the memorial she deserved by flying the American flag at half-staff.

In the end, everybody loved Dolly Parton, and she loved everybody too. There’s probably something we can learn from that.