Trump’s Meddling in Brazil’s Elections May Backfire
The administration is ratcheting up efforts to tilt Brazil’s upcoming election to Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of populist hard-liner

The Trump administration has ratcheted up their election interference efforts in Brazil, using sanctions, tariffs, and narratives to give Flávio Bolsonaro—son of right-wing hardliner and convicted traitor Jair Bolsonaro—any possible edge over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. It may very well backfire.
This has been brewing for some time. The Trump administration has threatened military action against Brazil, started classifying criminal groups there as terrorist organizations, and even sent State Department officials there to delegitimize their election system. The The U.S. Consulate in São Paulo even hosted pro-Bolsonaro social media influencers for a private roundtable. Bolsonaro’s other son, Eduardo, even floated the idea that the Trump administration might reject the outcome of the election if Lula wins. Yet all these things and more have potentially turned Brazilian voters away.
“Brazil did not want the U.S. imposition of this category on these criminal organizations because it opened the door for many ways in which the Trump administration could interfere in Brazilian internal politics,” Brown University Professor of Portuguese and Brazilian Studies James Green told Responsible Statecraft. “Even though they haven’t overtly said, ‘Oh, Flávio is my candidate,’ they sent all these signals to indicate that that’s who the United States wants to see elected.”
While Lula’s approval rating hovers around 50 percent—much higher than Trump’s has been at any point in his second term—the election margin is expected to be close regardless. Voting begins on Sunday.



