Midterms Get Even Worse for Senate Republicans—Thanks to Trump

The Cook Political Report adjusted the ratings Monday for four Senate battles in favor of Democrats, as President Donald Trump’s leadership has resulted in an “increasingly sour national environment for Republicans.”

In Georgia, the crop of conservative primary candidates have struggled to distinguish themselves in a crowded field, without a clear front-runner or any endorsement from the president. Meanwhile, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has been able to keep his powder dry and maintain a considerable fundraising edge over his opponents. CPR has moved that race out of the “Toss Up” category into “Lean Democrat.”

Another race that has shifted from uncertainty toward blue victory is the Senate battle in North Carolina, where Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is facing off against Roy Cooper, a Democrat and former governor, for Thom Tillis’s vacated seat. A recent poll by Quantus Insights saw Cooper secure a five-point lead over his opponent, continuing a positive trend since the beginning of the year.

In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown is set to face off with Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed as a replacement for Vice President JD Vance. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC for Republicans in the upper chamber, is reportedly planning to spend a whopping $79 million to help Husted hold his seat. Still, CPR has moved that race from “Lean Republican” into the “Toss Up” column.

The CPR’s final leftward rating shift was for the race in Nebraska, where Independent Dan Osborn is back once again to duke it out in an increasingly chaotic primary election. In 2024, Osborn came within seven points of defeating establishment Republican Senator Deb Fischer, a remarkable feat for a progressive independent with zero name recognition in a solidly pro-Trump state. This time around, he will challenge Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. That race has been moved from “Solid Republican” to only “Likely Republican.”

Trump has put Republicans in a tough spot. Gas prices and inflation are up; employment and consumer sentiment are down. Trump’s reckless war in Iran continues to rack up an immense price tag, which will only grow if he makes good on his promise to install a military blockade around the Strait of Hormuz. (He had stated the blockade would begin at 10 a.m. EST on Monday, but as of publication, the deadline has come and gone with no confirmation that the blockade was in place.)

It’s only a matter of time before Trump’s disastrous leadership takes its toll on his own party members, and November is right around the corner.

America’s allies will actually not be joining the White House’s Strait of Hormuz blockade.

NATO has no intention of cooperating in the military endeavor, despite Donald Trump’s repeated insistence that “many other countries” plan to help U.S. forces take control of the vital oil tradeway.

Some of the biggest members in the defensive alliance announced Monday that they will not get involved, including Britain and France.

“We are not supporting the blockade,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told BBC Radio. He added that the U.K. “is not getting dragged in” to the U.S.-Israel war in Iran.

In light of the latest failed peace deal, the U.S. military announced that it would block all maritime traffic in and out of the strait starting at 10 a.m. EST Monday.

“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement Sunday afternoon.

It is not clear exactly how the U.S. military plans to physically block ships from utilizing the waterway. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has warned that any warships approaching the strait will be considered a ceasefire violation.

The war in Iran has thrust the entire world into an energy crisis, spiking oil and gas prices, stalling movement, and tanking economies. At the time of publication, Brent crude—a global oil benchmark—had once again surpassed $100 per barrel. Before the war in late February, Brent crude was hovering around $65 a barrel.

But the U.K. and France are trying to solve the problem a different way. The two countries are co-hosting a summit with more than 40 nations this week in order to “restore freedom of navigation,” Starmer said in a statement. Its results, however, are dependent on a peace deal.

“The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is deeply damaging. Getting global shipping moving is vital to ease cost of living pressures,” Starmer said. “This week the U.K. and France will co-host a summit to advance work on a coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping when the conflict ends.”

Gas prices in the U.S. have surged beyond $4 a gallon, with some areas of California seeing prices as high as $7 a gallon. But the cost is even worse abroad: In the U.K., gas has hit the equivalent of roughly $7.50 per gallon, while in France, the price has soared beyond $8 per gallon. In the Netherlands, another NATO member, gas costs more than $10 per gallon.

A federal judge has tossed out President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal over their reporting on his salacious birthday letter to infamous sex predator Jeffrey Epstein.

The Journal successfully argued that Trump “fail[ed] to adequately allege that the statements in the Article are false or defamatory, actual malice, or special damages for his defamation per quod claim,” the judge noted, as he dismissed the case.

The infamous letter showed the silhouette of a woman containing a poem addressed to Epstein, in which Trump allegedly wrote “a pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday—and may every day be another wonderful secret. Donald J. Trump.”

There is also a signature at the bottom of the woman’s figure, potentially mimicking pubic hair. It reads “Donald.”

This is a developing story.

President Donald Trump’s troubling prediction for the upcoming midterm elections appeared to shock Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo.

“So, do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections?” Bartiromo asked the president during a phone interview on Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures.

“I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be. Or the same. Or maybe a little bit higher. But it should be around the same, I think this won’t be that much longer,” Trump said.

As Trump warned that prices could go even higher, Bartiromo’s eyebrows shot up, her eyes widening. She blinked in apparent disbelief, but said nothing as the president continued to rant.

“They’re wiped out, Maria. They’re wiped out. And you don’t get a—you don’t get a fair shake. You know, we need a free and fair press in this country ...”

Trump continued to ramble as the camera panned over to a board that displayed that the price of crude oil had nearly reached $100 per barrel.

The average price of gas at U.S. service stations nationwide has topped $4 a gallon for most of April—in February the average was just below $3. Gas prices continued to climb Monday after Trump said he would install a military blockade on all ships entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran.

A recent poll from CBS News/YouGov found that 51 percent of Americans found gas prices presented a significant financial hardship. Trump’s approval rating on the economy and his overall job performance ticked down slightly, with those who said they struggled the most with gas prices having the biggest problem with Trump’s handling of the economy.

If Trump’s reckless war in Iran continues to yield disaster for average Americans’ wallets, MAGA Republicans won’t have an easy time getting reelected come November. But Trump already seems more than content with alienating his base in every possible way.

Donald Trump’s negotiators scuttled talks with Iran at the last minute, according to Iran.

In a post on X Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that his country “engaged with U.S in good faith to end war.”

“But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” Araghchi posted. “Zero lessons earned. Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.”

Trump claimed in an angry Truth Social post earlier that day that “IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!”

“In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people,” Trump posted.

“My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!” Trump continued.

Iran has been a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since 1968, and its terms require them not to seek nuclear weapons. Since the Iran war broke out this year, though, Iranian lawmakers have pushed for the country to pull out of the agreement, citing the war and Trump’s decision to scrap the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by President Barack Obama.

Iran’s former supreme leaders, the late Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei, each made religious rulings against developing and using nuclear weapons. But facing a relentless bombing campaign from the U.S. and Israel, as well as broken deals and failed negotiations, Iran’s new clerical leadership might rule differently.