Months before the midterm elections, President Trump once again is trying to take over voting in America, claiming power he doesn’t have. His latest executive order, which he signed on Tuesday, instructs the U.S. Postal Service to refuse to deliver ballots unless the voters are on a new list of approved citizens. It’s a mess, and it’s unconstitutional. There’s every reason to think courts will block it.
This is part of a larger story. Trump and his allies in Washington and around the country have spent a year in a frenzy of activity all toward a singular goal: undermining elections. Between conspiracy theories, FBI raids, late-night social media rants, and more, these moves can confuse or distract. But it is more than improvisational chaos. The contours of the strategy behind it all are now increasingly clear.
Yet here’s the thing: For every move Trump has made, there’s been a countermove. And the pushback has been fierce and increasingly successful.
Start with Tuesday’s executive order, which voting rights groups, including the Brennan Center, are challenging in court (Democrats have already sued Trump over it). Under its terms, the USPS would only deliver a voter’s ballot if their name is on a federally created list of enrolled voters. So would the Post Office assemble state voter rolls and compare them to a new federal list? What if the lists are full of errors, as past attempts were? Yikes. The order even tells the attorney general to prioritize prosecutions of election officials.
More than that, it’s illegal. When Trump tried to rewrite election rules a year ago with an order requiring people who submit a national voter registration form to produce a passport or other citizenship document, a federal court blocked it. The judge declared, “Our Constitution entrusts Congress and the States—not the president—with the power to regulate federal elections.” Moreover, the USPS is an independent body not subject to presidential edict. Whoever drafted the order did not try to dress it up in a legitimate legal argument: Trump can do this, it claims, because Article 2 of the Constitution gives him … lots of power! That’s about it.
The second strategy seeks to enlist Congress. The SAVE Act, Trump’s “number one priority,” would require citizens to produce a passport or birth certificate to register—yet 21 million Americans lack ready access to those documents. The House of Representatives twice passed versions of the bill, and for two weeks this past month, the Senate debated it. Forty-two opponents gave floor speeches—including Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski—and thus the bill has so far been unable to garner the support necessary to overcome a filibuster. Senators went on vacation without even taking a vote. The president’s only live legislative priority will, again, be stymied if foes continue to press.
Another scheme deploys the Justice Department. In January, the FBI raided the elections offices in Fulton County, Georgia, seizing ballots from the 2020 election in an attempt to relitigate the results. The affidavit underlying the raid turned out to be a compilation of debunked conspiracy theories. That’s all ominous, but just as worrisome have been the Justice Department’s demands that all 50 states turn over sensitive voter rolls, including Social Security numbers. Why is the federal government hoovering up all this information? It’s now clear that Trump’s team wants to pressure states to purge voters from the rolls, many of whom would be eligible to cast ballots. Some states have gone along, but most have resisted. Three courts so far have ruled that Washington has no authority to demand this data. In the face of improper federal demands, state and county officials are standing up. Outside experts are training lawyers for election officials about how to resist further encroachment.
Another move has been to pull the federal cops off the beat. Election officials have been beset by threats, disinformation, and actual violence. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency exists in part to help them, providing expertise and funding. But last year, Trump gutted the agency, cleaning out its staff and even ordering an investigation of its former director, Chris Krebs, who had the temerity to affirm that the 2020 election had been secure. That has left elections dangerously unprotected against foreign government hacking. There’s no substitute for a strong national security response, but many of these election security experts are now advising states from the outside.
One more countermeasure: Conservative and liberal groups created the Committee for Safe and Secure Elections—half law enforcement, half election officials—to help guard against threats and violence. The coalition plans to host 100 sessions around the country, and at least 100,000 pocket guides on how to protect elections will be distributed to police officers.
Perhaps the most chilling tactic hasn’t even happened yet. Trump ally Steve Bannon said last week that the presence of ICE at airports would be “perfect training for the fall of 2026.” Sending Immigration and Customs Enforcement or any other armed agent to the polls is illegal under both federal and state law. If voters or election workers are intimidated, they can go to court, and based on experience of the past year, we can expect judges to rule quickly to prevent disruptions and intimidation.
Many worry that Trump doesn’t follow the law. Actually, his administration largely has followed federal rulings, even if howling all the way. But there’s a reason for vigilance. While regularly losing in court, Trump often responds with escalation. Sure, courts might rule, but what if, in the hours before the November elections, he delivers on his repeated threats to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploys the military against protesters? Would even a good court ruling matter then?
That’s where voters, civic groups, and campaigns come in. Citizens should make a plan, vote early when possible, use drop boxes. Already civil society has begun to mobilize. The League of Women Voters, for example, plans to organize as many as 70,000 people to watch voting and work at the polls. Clergy have begun to prepare to show up in force. Perhaps the business community, active in 2020 but shamefully hesitant since, can enlist employees to serve as poll workers and monitors. The inspiring citizen mobilization in Minneapolis can offer a model for a crusade to keep the elections free from interference.
Some of Trump’s moves will no doubt
succeed. But the countermoves, taken together, can be successful in blocking or
blunting many more. We’ve seen some of the worst impulses repelled already. But
it will take all of us. Executive order or not, we can have safe and secure
elections in November, but we’ll have to work for it.
