White House Begs Staffers to Stop Placing Bets on Prediction Markets

The Trump administration is warning staffers not to bet on world events in futures markets.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House Management Office sent out a staff-wide email on March 24 telling administration employees not to engage in the practice following President Donald Trump’s announcement the previous day that he was pausing strikes against Iran.

The email was likely prompted by the rise in suspicious wagers and investments being made just before Trump announces major policy decisions. Only 15 minutes before Trump announced the pause in bombing Iran, $760 million in oil futures contracts was traded in under two minutes.

Three accounts in the prediction market Polymarket correctly bet on the timing of the Iran war ceasefire earlier this week, netting over $600,000. One of those accounts, with a 93 percent accuracy rate, was able to profit by betting on when U.S. and Israeli airstrikes would occur in 2024, 2025, and 2026.

The timing of those bets raises the question of whether one of Trump’s staffers or associates is using insider information for profit. Online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow their customers to bet on everything from political events to sports, and suspicious bets have been going on for months.

In January, one trader, who had only created their account in December, made $400,000 by betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power less than five hours before it actually happened. Israel arrested and charged two people, including a military reservist, in February for allegedly using classified information to make bets on Polymarket.

Insider trading in the White House is a disturbing phenomenon, made worse by Trump’s embrace of corruption as president and because it’s an even more perverse form of war profiteering. It extends further than Polymarket or Kalshi, which are problematic in their own right, and could go all the way to the presidential Cabinet, as a broker for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth allegedly tried to invest millions of dollars in defense companies just before the U.S. began bombing Iran. One wonders if Trump himself is also engaged in insider trading, or if his corrupt Department of Justice even takes the issue seriously.

Donald Trump just drove a wedge into the MAGA movement.

The president reamed out several of his longtime acolytes Thursday, smearing ex-Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, as well as far-right influencers Candace Owens and Alex Jones. The quartet had each issued their own condemnation of Trump’s warmongering rhetoric, slamming the president’s various promises to completely annihilate Iran as vile and unpresidential.

And for once, Trump’s base was not willing to back him up in this fight. Instead, droves of MAGA supporters seemed shocked by the president’s sudden turn on his own political disciples, writing their own critiques of the president’s behavior under one of his Truth Social rants.

“Trump just going against everyone that fought for him to win, just because of the Epstein files and being at war with Iran for Israel,” wrote a Truth Social user called Deportation News. “You had so much potential, Trump. Voted for you all three times, and I feel so betrayed.”

“LOST MY SUPPORT,” responded user Mark Winslow.

“As of last week, they’ve done nothing but make excuses for your behavior and you think they’re the enemy??? They are why I am a triple Trumper!” posted Misty. “Whoever is telling you this is very wrong!!!! They have been trying to tell you how a large percentage of Americans see things... I was confident that you knew what you were doing but this is truly SCARY.”

The president posted 482 words to his Truth Social account Thursday afternoon, complaining that the four conservative commentators had been “fighting” him “for years” because of their “low IQs.” Trump further claimed that the MAGA-aligned media personalities were “stupid people” and that they “don’t have what it takes.” He also mentioned that he believed Owens was less attractive than the first lady of France, Brigitte Macron, who has sued the far-right podcaster over her repeated claims that Macron is transgender.

But the mouthy tirade only seemed to inspire Trump’s voters to lose respect for him. In his Truth Social replies, supporters referred to Trump’s missive as “childish,” “rambling,” and “pathetic.”

“What am I am hearing is your ego is so fragile you think anyone who questions any of your decisions is a low IQ person,” wrote Truth Social user shannstine. “Sir, statements like this say far more about you than them.”

“You’re the terrorist that kills people for politics,” wrote user RealTedFrancis.

“They’re fighting you because you sold us out,” posted another user on the platform, PapaSteve72. “We aren’t getting anything we voted for. No DOGE cuts, no mass deportations, no fraud and abuse getting cut, no arrests of pedofiles and traitors, and a brand new war nobody wanted and in fact voted explicitly against. You are an absolute failure and pathetic loser and I am so sorry I voted for you 3 times. I will never be tricked like this again. I’ve learned my lesson. Fuck you asshole!”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly convinced President Donald Trump not to include Lebanon in America’s ceasefire deal with Iran—even though the U.S. agreed to stop the bombing there.

Trump was initially told that the ceasefire would apply to the entire Middle East region, including Lebanon, multiple diplomatic sources told CBS News Thursday.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, who helped mediate the plan, announced on X Tuesday that the U.S. and Iran had “agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere.” Lebanon was even included in the version of the deal originally circulated by the Trump administration.

Trump then abruptly changed his position on Lebanon following a phone call with Netanyahu, CBS News reported. Israel has waged an escalating military campaign in Lebanon using heavy munitions on densely populated areas, killing hundreds of civilians in its pursuit of Hezbollah. On Thursday, Netanyahu insisted that there was no ceasefire in Lebanon, as Israel launched a fresh round of strikes.

The Trump administration has resorted to a sort of collective amnesia about the whole thing. Vice President JD Vance told reporters Wednesday that he believed there’d been a “legitimate misunderstanding” about the terms of the ceasefire. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted earlier that day that all parties were aware that a ceasefire in Lebanon was not included in the deal.

A State Department official told CBS News that the U.S. will lead diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon. It’s not hard to guess how that could go. When the U.S. supposedly mediated the end of Israel’s military onslaught in Gaza, the Trump administration turned it into a lucrative real estate deal, while letting Israel continue its deadly strikes, oppression, and violent land grabs in the West Bank.

Trump caving to Netanyahu threatens to upend the fragile ceasefire deal that Iran now claims the U.S. is violating by allowing Israel to continue strikes in Lebanon. Iranian media said that Tehran would continue to suspend traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and was considering pulling out of the deal with Washington altogether.

Inflation has hit record highs in the U.S. thanks primarily to the war President Trump and Israel started on Iran. 

The most recent consumer price index report reveals inflation rose by 3.3 percent in March from one year ago, with energy prices being hit particularly hard. Gas prices went up a record 21.2 percent in just one month, and energy prices rose 10.9 percent. 

Prices overall are up 0.9 percent through March, the biggest monthly spike since 2022. 

Meanwhile, the American Automobile Association reports that gas costs nearly 40 percent more than it did since the war began in February, and Americans are paying an average of $4.15 per gallon. All because Trump listened to war hawks telling him to bomb Iran, leading Iran to close one of the most vital trading routes in the world, and causing you personally to spend more of your income to fill up your tank.  

Survivors of Jeffrey Epstein’s abuse are angry with Melania Trump.

Several of his victims released a statement blasting the first lady after her remarks in the White House Thursday attempting to distance herself from Epstein and calling for survivors to publicly testify before Congress.

“Survivors of Jeffrey Epstein have already shown extraordinary courage by coming forward, filing reports, and giving testimony,” 15 of Epstein’s victims said in a statement in response. “Asking more of them is a deflection of responsibility, not justice.”

The statement called out Trump for “shifting the burden onto survivors under politicized conditions that protect those with power: the Department of Justice, law enforcement, prosecutors, and the Trump administration, which has still not fully complied with the Epstein Files Transparency Act.”

“It also diverts attention from Pam Bondi, who must answer for withheld files and the exposure of survivors’ identities. Those failures continue to put lives at risk while shielding enablers,” the statement added. “Survivors have done their part. Now it’s time for those in power to do theirs.”

The first lady’s statement Thursday raised a number of questions, chief among them why she chose this moment to address her proximity to Epstein. Several of the files released from the government’s Epstein archive show her corresponding frequently with Epstein’s accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell. Her speech is only drawing more attention to an issue her husband, President Trump, has desperately tried to sweep under the rug. Survivors of Epstein’s crimes are correctly pointing out that the first lady’s goal in speaking out now is clearly self-serving.

Multiple MAGA influencers are processing their public rebuke from President Trump, who called them out by name on Thursday, referring to them as “stupid people,” “nut jobs,” and “troublemakers.” 

Trump specifically called out Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones, despite praising all of those people in the past.

“Well, President Trump came out on Truth Social and attacked myself and all the original MAGA supporters today. And I’m just so sad that whatever’s happened to him has just changed the man he once was,” Jones said. “At the end of the day I just feel sorry for [Trump] and pray that God touched his heart and soul, and free him from the demonic influences that he’s under.... When Trump’s calling for wiping out whole civilizations and acting like a supervillain, I have to come out and say I don’t support it, it’s that simple.” 

Owens put it more succinctly. “It may be time to put Grandpa up in a home,” she wrote.

“Go back to 2016, 2020, or even 2024.  You’re a die-hard Trump supporter. You have to join one of two groups. Group A is Candace, Tucker, Alex, and Megyn. Group B is Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin, Lindsey Graham, and Ted Cruz,” Owens collaborator Baron Coleman wrote. “Who changed?”

“THAT DOES IT. I AM DONE. THIS WAS THE LAST STRAW,” MAGA podcaster Tim Pool seethed. “I’M SO ANGRY.”

Carlson responded in his newsletter later Friday morning, suggesting that Israel could even be blackmailing Trump, as they were accused of doing to President Clinton in the 1990s.

“We do not know for sure whether that is happening, but the mere possibility is haunting enough to keep the president up at night. He is under a level of pressure that most people cannot fathom, with rabid Israel Firsters viciously harassing him any time he dares to stray even slightly from their favorite country’s agenda. Their shameless pursuit is steadfast enough to make even a man like Donald Trump go mad,” Carlson wrote.

“We decided to write about this after Trump published a Truth Social post attacking our company, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones, each of whom supported him for years. Rather than engaging in petty name-calling, we want to give the president some grace. He is facing a level of pressure that is dark enough to make him abandon his campaign promises and morph into the precise kind of politician he once vowed to destroy. He would not have let that happen unless his personal stakes were really high. We hope he overcomes,” Carlson continued.

While Trump made some points in his rant—Owens and Jones are raging conspiracy theorists with despicable track records—they aren’t jumping ship because they suddenly don’t like him. Carlson, Jones, and many of their ilk are leaving Trump because he broke the promises he made to MAGA.

This story has been updated.

Donald Trump is losing conservative support, and it’s setting him on edge.

The president posted a 482-word rant to his Truth Social account Thursday afternoon, lashing out at some of his longest supporters for their recent criticisms of the war in Iran. Some of the name-dropped acolytes include former Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, as well as far-right influencers who have made their stamp on MAGA politics, such as Candace Owens and Alex Jones.

Trump claimed that the conservative quartet had been “fighting” him “for years” because of their “low IQs.”

“They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too!” Trump continued. “Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did!”

The Republican icons turned on Trump earlier this week over his rhetoric in the war, torching the president for pledging to completely annihilate Iran and its civilization.

Carlson—once the largest figure in conservative media—described Trump’s language as “vile on every level” and “the most revealing thing the president has ever done.” Kelly went on air on SiriusXM Tuesday to proclaim that she’s “sick of this shit.”

“Can’t he just behave like a normal human?” Kelly asked rhetorically. “His negotiation tactic is to kill an entire country full of civilians: men, women, and children? An American president? So that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened? It’s just wrong. It’s not hard to say it; it’s not hard to recognize it.”

In his post Thursday, Trump claimed that the right-wing commentators were simply disagreeing with him for some “free” and “cheap” publicity.

While smearing the quartet, Trump mentioned that he felt Owens was less attractive than the first lady of France, Brigitte Macron.

“Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close!” Trump wrote.

Macron and her husband, French President Emmanuel Macron, have sued Owens for defamation after the far-right podcaster claimed that Brigitte Macron is transgender.

“They’re not ‘MAGA,’ they’re losers, just trying to latch on to MAGA,” Trump continued. “As President, I could get them on my side anytime I want to, but when they call, I don’t return their calls because I’m too busy on World and Country Affairs and, after a few times, they go ‘nasty,’ just like Marjorie ‘Traitor’ Brown.”

Despite the wordy rant, Trump then went on to insist that he “no longer care[s] about that stuff” and that he only cares about the country.

“MAGA is about WINNING and STRENGTH in not allowing Iran to have Nuclear Weapons,” the president wrote. “MAGA is about MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and these people have no idea how to do that, BUT I DO, because THE UNITED STATES IS NOW THE ‘HOTTEST’ COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD!”

On Thursday, Melania Trump tried to deny having any connections to Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes, but the internet quickly produced receipts.

The first lady said in prepared remarks at the White House that the first time she met the sex criminal was in 2000 at an event she and Donald Trump had attended together, and that she had no knowledge of his crimes at the time. She also denied being a witness to any of them.

“Numerous fake images and statements about Epstein and me have been percolating on social media for years now,” she said. “Be cautious about what you believe. These images and stories are completely false. I am not a witness or a named witness in connection with any of Epstein’s crimes.”

Melania also called on Congress to hold a public hearing for all of Epstein’s victims in her remarks, a surprising move given the allegations against her husband in the Epstein files.

Why would Melania Trump say all of this now, out of the blue? Some on social media are speculating that she is trying to get ahead of a major upcoming revelation connecting her to Epstein. In February, several unredacted emails were released from the government’s Epstein archive showing that Melania was in frequent contact with Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s longtime criminal associate.

Commentators on X quickly posted one of those emails on Thursday in which Melania compliments Maxwell, as well as an often-circulated photo of Donald, Melania, Epstein, and Maxwell together at a party.

Melania’s remarks will likely draw more attention to the Epstein files, which had been pushed out of the news cycle thanks to the war with Iran. One wonders what the president thinks about her remarks, and whether they are by design.

First lady Melania Trump on Thursday called on Congress to hold a public hearing for all the women victimized by sex predator Jeffrey Epstein—a surprising development given her husband’s proximity to Epstein and the allegations against him within the files.

“I call on Congress to provide the women who have been victimized by Epstein with a public hearing specifically centered around the survivors, give these victims their opportunity to testify under oath in front of Congress with the power of sworn testimony,” she said. “Each and every woman should have her day to tell her story in public, if she wishes, and then her testimony should be permanently entered into the congressional record.”

The first lady made the statement during a televised White House announcement on Thursday, most of which she used to reject any rumors or assertions that she had any relationship with Epstein or his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell.

“I have never been friends with Epstein. Donald and I were invited to the same parties as Epstein from time to time, since overlapping in social circles is common in New York City and Palm Beach,” she said. “To be clear, I never had a relationship with Epstein or his accomplice, Maxwell.”

The Trump administration is fighting to make the executive branch even more secretive.

A 52-page memorandum from the Justice Department reveals that the agency is putting up a fight against the Presidential Records Act. The department’s Office of Legal Counsel argued on April 1 that the 1978 law, which was passed in direct response to the fallout of Richard Nixon’s Watergate scandal, is actually “unconstitutional.”

The office further claimed that the congressionally passed act “exceeds” the legislative branch’s powers and “aggrandizes” Congress “at the expense of the constitutional independence and autonomy of the Executive.”

In doing this, the DOJ is trying to keep the president’s records private—rather than public, as mandated by the country’s representatives nearly 50 years ago.

The DOJ’s position already faces several legal challenges. Days after the memorandum was released, the nonpartisan watchdog organization American Oversight joined with the American Historical Association to sue a couple dozen figures within the Trump administration. In a 46-page legal complaint, the two nonprofits argued that the Oval Office was attempting to nullify and supersede the constitutional authorities of the other branches of government, and trod over the separation of powers.

“In the Administration’s view, the records of the official activities of the President and nearly 1,000 White House employees—generated using taxpayer funds, on government property, regarding official government business—belong to the President personally, and not to the American people,” the complaint reads. “Government for the people, by the people, and of the people this is not.”

Donald Trump has expressed little to no respect for the laws and regulations that bind him to public accountability. At the end of his first presidency, Trump allegedly broke seven laws by retaining hundreds of classified documents. He was charged with 37 felony counts in 2023 as a result, making him the first president to be criminally charged. Trump-appointed federal Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the charges the following year, arguing that special counsel Jack Smith, the man appointed to investigate and prosecute the case, had not been properly installed.

The president has also not shown any interest in offering the public an inside view into the maneuverings of his administration, even retroactively. Trump’s presidential library is expected to be a glass skyscraper, operating as more of a hotel rather than anything close to a facility dedicated to learning.

Renderings of the building posted to Trump’s Truth Social late last month included a red, white, and blue needle on top, a U.S. flag hanging down the side, and a gargantuan plane on the first floor that resembles the super-luxury jumbo jet Qatar gifted him last year.