Since the launch of his political career more than a decade ago, President Donald Trump has always been sensitive to his approval ratings. His popularity in office has never topped 50 percent, a first for a modern president, but there has also consistently been a clear floor: Despite numerous scandals and unpopular political positions, Trump’s support has remained above 35 percent in most polls—and more often than not, above 40 percent—throughout his first and second terms.
But as Trump’s war on Iran lumbers on, dragging down the stock market and hiking gas prices, several recent polls show Trump’s approval rating dropping to 35 percent or even lower. How much further could it fall? And how much could it aid Democrats’ efforts to retake Congress in November?
Trump was elected in 2024 in part because of his promises to ease inflation and lower prices, but a recent poll by CNN found that Americans have a record low approval rating for his handling of the economy. Approval of his handling of immigration, which also helped propel him to the Oval Office for a second time, is also significantly lower than it was in January of last year.
Much of this change is driven by increased disapproval from independent voters, particularly with regard to Iran. But Trump remains popular among his own party, which means that his minimum level of support will likely remain steady. Data journalist and pollster G. Elliott Morris estimates that the floor for the president’s approval ratings would likely hover in the 33 or 34 percent range. A recession could hurt his popularity further, or deciding to put American boots on the ground in the Middle East, but Morris doubted his approval ratings would drop much lower.
“The only reason Donald Trump’s approval rating is not 30 percent today is because of Republicans, because there’s such polarization,” said Morris, who also runs the Strength In Numbers newsletter on Substack. Trump’s movement also remains strong: A March poll by The Economist/YouGov found that people self-identifying as MAGA supporters had reached a new high of 25 percent, including 63 percent of Republicans. Even as as Democrats intensify their criticism of the president, and independents sour on him, his Republican supporters remain stoutly loyal.
These polling trends are in line with Trump’s first term, during which his average approval rating hovered in the high 30s and low 40s. The exception came at the very end of his term, when his approval hit a record low in the wake of the January 6 siege on the Capitol. A Pew Research Center poll found that only 29 percent of Americans approved of the job he was doing; that low-water mark was primarily precipitated by a drop in support among Republicans (which ultimately proved temporary).
Trump is not unique in receiving staunch backing from his party. For the most part, his approval among Republicans has hovered between 80 and 90 percent, which is similar to Democrats’ support of Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden during their time in office, Morris noted.
Still, Tim Malloy, an analyst for the Quinnipiac University poll, noted that Trump’s recent record low approval rating on the economy is a “very big red flag,” considering his historic strength on the issue. But Malloy also said that the president’s approval has consistently “bounced around.” Quinnipiac polling has shown that Trump’s approval rating among registered voters has generally hovered between 35 and 45 percent throughout his first term and thus far in his second, with few exceptions.
Similarly to the January 2021 Pew poll’s finding, Trump’s lowest approval recorded by Quinnipiac—33 percent—came the week after the January 6 insurrection. (Quinnipiac also recorded a 33 percent approval rate in a poll in early August of 2017, released shortly after the Senate unsuccessfully attempted to overturn the Affordable Care Act.) Trump’s highest rating, 46 percent, came at the very beginning of his second term in January 2025.
Democrats could in theory capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity in the upcoming midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake. The party is favored to win back the House of Representatives, and has a shot at the Senate. And yet, despite Trump’s unpopularity, Democrats may be underperforming among Trump-skeptical voters. When voters are asked what party they would support on a generic ballot, Democrats only have a plus 6 margin, according to a March poll by Strength In Numbers/Verasight.
Morris said that Trump’s unpopularity is due in large part to “soft disapprovers”: voters who are skeptical of Trump, yet generally vote for Republicans. But these voters—who may disapprove of the war against Iran, or Trump’s immigration policies, or rising gas prices—don’t necessarily see Democrats as a viable option.
“Those people would say, if you ask them, ‘Hey, how do you like the presidency from the guy that’s, like, increasing your oil prices and maybe sending your son to war?’ And they’d be like, ‘Oh, yeah, I don’t like that,’” explained Morris. “But then you ask them who they’ll vote for, it’s like, ‘Well, I typically vote for Republicans, so I’ll probably vote for Republicans downballot, as long as their name is not Donald J. Trump.’”
Some recent polling has shown that the Democratic Party has even less support among voters than Trump. A March NBC News survey found that only 30 percent of registered voters say they have positive feelings about Democrats. So even if Trump is losing ground among Republican skeptics and independents, don’t expect “soft disapprovers” to vote for Democrats in the upcoming midterms.
“What we know about American political psychology is that your partisan label is the most powerful predictor of how you vote, even when general conditions are turning against the president,” said Morris.
