Our exclusive survey reveals that a majority of Republicans believe the January 6 insurrection was an “act of patriotism.”

Despite conventional wisdom, the party is not doomed in November’s midterm elections. The economy, Covid-19, the invasion of Ukraine, and the January 6 insurrection are all wild cards.

The economy and inflation, sure. But Ukraine? He’s done about as well as a president can. What gives?

Polls show that both Democrats and Republicans are rallying around Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion. Too bad the Capitol riot on January 6 didn’t inspire the same unity.

With war in Europe and a receding pandemic, no one knows what fall 2022 will look like.

Pundits are acting apocalyptic about pandemic education policy and the midterms. The evidence paints a far shakier picture.

Biden’s approval rating on the virus is bleak, but Democrats’ fortunes in 2022 could quickly change if the pandemic becomes endemic.

His falling poll numbers are due more to the delta variant than the Beltway mess. That means he’ll climb as things get better. Unless they get worse again.

The president has faced some serious headwinds, but rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

I ultimately decided against running for Congress in a red district. But my research found a way for Democrats to make inroads in such places.

The GOP wants to convince America that socialist, defund-the-police Democrats are responsible for rising crime. Political journalists are already sold.

The polling industry has squandered the public’s trust for the last time.

Long voting lines in New York aren’t a symptom of the pandemic. They’re the result of years of broken politics and party patronage.

It’s getting harder and harder to explain away a bevy of bad numbers, but the president’s allies are valiantly spinning on.

White people in not-insignificant numbers maintain a persistent belief that they’re the ones suffering historic levels of racial discrimination.

Research shows that African Americans support candidates from marginalized groups, including LGBTQ people, more than their white counterparts.

America’s gerontocratic voters helped put the president in office, but the latest polls show their affections are shifting.

How market pressures and professional hubris have undone campaign journalism

His data journalism blog, FiveThirtyEight, is a political website with no politics—or rather, no politics beyond a mute approval of the status quo. 

Do Klobuchar, Booker, and Bennet have a shot in hell at the nomination?