Poll: Zohran Mamdani Is Crushing the NYC Mayor’s Race

Zohran Mamdani is maintaining a major lead in the race for New York City mayor, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University.

Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, is the preferred candidate of 46 percent of likely voters, handily beating competitors Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa, and Eric Adams. Former Governor Cuomo trails Mamdani in second, with 24 percent of the vote, then Republican Sliwa at 15 percent, and current Mayor Adams at a dismal 9 percent.

Those polled indicated that Mamdani, a democratic socialist, was the best candidate to address their top two concerns: affordability and housing. And around 60 percent of likely voters said that Mamdani was “inspirational”—he’s the only candidate viewed positively by a majority of voters, according to the poll.

Unlike the primary, which employed ranked-choice voting, the general election in November will be a head-to-head race. However, it’s shaping up to be anything but traditional: In deep-blue New York City, the Democratic primary is usually more important than the general in determining the city’s next mayor.

But though Mamdani appears to be headed for victory, he’ll be challenged by two other Democrats, both running as independents: Cuomo, who suffered an unexpectedly brutal loss in the primary, and Adams, whose corruption-plagued tenure seems to be seriously affecting his reelection bid.

And then there’s Sliwa, the Republican candidate, who non-New Yorkers may be surprised to learn does not have the backing of the Trump administration—but is still polling higher than current Mayor Adams.

However, the president has still attempted to pull strings behind the scenes. President Donald Trump and strategists have reportedly been brainstorming ways to get Adams and Sliwa to drop out, creating a one-to-one race between Mamdani and Cuomo, the president’s preferred candidate.

Were that to happen, the new poll shows Mamdani’s lead enduring but shrinking significantly: Mamdani came in with 48 percent of the vote and Cuomo with 44.

Nearly a million fewer jobs were created between April 2024 and March 2025 than previously reported, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The new data, published Tuesday morning, speaks to a weak job market during both former President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump’s terms—and is another harbinger of economic turbulence to come.

Despite what monthly payroll tallies indicated, employers added 911,000 fewer jobs from last April until this March. This implies that only 850,000 jobs were actually added to the economy during that time, just half as many as previously reported, according to The New York Times.

This is the second time in a week that Americans have been hit with troubling economic news.

On Friday, the August jobs report revealed that unemployment has risen to a nearly four-year high, and the United States only added 22,000 jobs that month—an underperformance from the projected 75,000.

Annual revisions are normal, but this one is pretty significant: it’s the largest since the 2008 recession. It also comes at a bad time for Trump, who just fired the head of the BLS last month because her jobs report was weaker than expected.

It seems as if the president’s economy is shrinking: The number of foreign-born workers is declining as Trump deports immigrants en masse, and it’s likely that the number of native-born workers isn’t rising to meet the difference. Tariffs are causing people to buy less, and the number of unemployed Americans has grown larger than the stock of available jobs.

No wonder economists are saying that we may be “on the brink” of a recession.

It’s unclear whether President Trump plans to run again in 2028, despite the Twenty-Second Amendment unambiguously barring a president from being elected for a third term.

In a Monday evening interview, Fox News host Brett Baier broached the subject with Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett—and the wording of the Trump appointee’s response alarmed some observers.

“The Twenty-Second Amendment says you can only run for office for two terms,” Baier said.

“True,” answered Barrett.

“You think that that’s cut and dry?”

“Well, that’s, you know, that’s what the amendment says, right?” Barrett said. “After FDR had four terms, that’s what that amendment says.”

Many online were concerned that Barrett had left room for interpretation, among them California Governor Gavin Newsom, who wrote on X, “The answer is: YES.”

In an appearance on CBS last week, Barrett—currently on a book tour—gave a better answer when interviewer Norah O’Donnell noted that she “explicitly write[s] in the book that the Constitution ‘leaves no room for second guessing when it comes to term limits.’”

“The Twenty-Second Amendment sets a two-term limit,” Barrett said, again citing the history of the amendment’s enactment after Franklin D. Roosevelt’s four elections. “So really, I can’t say anything else but just point to the Twenty-Second Amendment. If you ask the question how many terms a president can serve, I would point to the Twenty-Second amendment.”

Trump, for his part, has teetered on the question of whether he sees himself as constrained by the Twenty-Second Amendment—not to mention the Constitution in general.

In March, he told NBC’s Kristen Welker that he was “not joking” about considering a third term. There are “methods” by which he could do so, he claimed, one being if Vice President JD Vance was to win the presidency, then pass the baton to Trump.

In May, however, Trump declared to Welker that he will be “a two-term president”—though he seemingly couldn’t help but add, “There are ways of doing it.” In August, he said he would “like to run” again but “probably won’t.”

Online, the president sells “TRUMP 2028” hats, with the product description stating: “Rewrite the rules with the Trump 2028 high crown hat.”

President Trump greenlit Israel’s Tuesday bombing of Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, according to Israeli sources speaking with the media after the shocking attack.

The Israeli Defense Forces said they were targeting a meeting of Hamas leadership, who were gathered in Qatar to discuss a ceasefire proposal put forward by the Trump administration.

“The members of the leadership who were attacked led the terrorist organization’s activities for years, and are directly responsible for carrying out the October 7 massacre and waging the war against the State of Israel,” the IDF stated.

Israeli sources told multiple outlets—including CNN and Israel’s Channel 12 that the United States had prior knowledge of the planned attack.

The attack comes just months after Trump toured Qatar, hailed the country as a close ally, and accepted that $400 million private jet from Qatari leadership.

Qatar, which has served as a primary mediator in hostage and ceasefire talks and hosts a major U.S. airbase, has condemned the strike as “criminal” and “cowardly.”

“This criminal attack constitutes a flagrant violation of all international laws and norms and a serious threat to the security and safety of Qataris and residents of Qatar,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari. “The State of Qatar affirms that it will not tolerate this reckless Israeli behavior and its continued tampering with regional security, as well as any action targeting its security and sovereignty. Investigations are underway at the highest level, and further details will be announced as soon as they become available.”

Hours after the attack, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt read a statement that expressed both approval of Israel’s actions and regret for the location (Israel bombed a residential neighborhood).

“This morning, the Trump administration was notified by the United States military that Israel was attacking Hamas, which very unfortunately, was located in a section of Doha, the capital of Qatar. Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker peace, does not advance Israel or America’s goals,” Leavitt said. “However, eliminating Hamas, who have profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, is a worthy goal.... The president views Qatar as a strong ally, and friend of the United States, and feels very badly about the location of this attack. President Trump wants all of the hostages in Gaza, and the bodies of the dead, released, and this war to end now.”

Leavitt then refused to elaborate when asked about what prior knowledge Trump had regarding Israel’s attack, if any.

Qatar has already confirmed it is suspending its mediation between Israel and Hamas after the bombing. Israel’s attack may very well prolong Israel’s genocide of Palestinians and Hamas’s detainment of the remaining Israeli hostages. Israel seems to care less about the latter with each passing day.

Aside from that, this episode shows that (1) deference to Israel’s violence is still the Trump administration’s policy, and (2) no amount of groveling and gift-giving to Trump can stop you from getting backstabbed.

This story has been updated.

One Republican lawmaker known for pushing conspiracy theories suggested a surprising culprit behind President Donald Trump’s lewd birthday letter to Jeffrey Epstein.

Speaking to CNN’s Manu Raju Monday, Representative Tim Burchett suggested that Trump’s apparent signature had been forged—by the dreaded autopen.

“I mean, anybody can do a signature. We’ve seen autopens they used quite a bit in the Biden administration. I’ve never known Trump to be much of an artist either, so I kind of draw that into question,” Burchett said.

While the crude drawing of a naked woman on Epstein’s note wasn’t exactly the work of an artist, Raju pointed out that Trump had been known to draw pictures.

“The thing is, it’s been there for four years and now it’s just come out,” Burchett continued. “I just don’t buy it.”

Trump and other Republicans have repeatedly pushed the conspiracy theory that staffers for former President Joe Biden frequently used an autopen, in an attempt to magically undo the work of the previous administration. Trump also claimed that he never uses an autopen, before admitting that he does, but “only for very unimportant papers.”

Now Burchett seems to be hoping he can use the president’s catchall undo button to discount the damning evidence that Trump wrote a creepy message to his close friend, the alleged sex trafficker. It’s worth noting that the Tennessee Republican has a tendency to boost conspiracy theories that drift into the mainstream, like a bill he introduced opposing weather modification.

On Monday, The Wall Street Journal published an image of Trump’s lewd 50th birthday letter to Epstein, after it was delivered to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee by lawyers for the alleged sex traffickers’s estate—sending the White House scrambling for any way to claim the letter was a fake.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers used to have to fill out paperwork before they arrested someone. Now, likely in service of President Donald Trump’s mass deportation agenda, that requirement has been scrapped.

Six current and former ICE agents told NBC News that they had previously been required to record a person’s name, appearance, employer, last known address, immigration history, criminal history, and more.

The form used to be required for every arrest made, except when ICE was called in to work with local law enforcement agencies. But in the last few months, that policy has quietly vanished because some at the agency thought it was a “waste of time,” according to Darius Reeves, the former director of ICE’s Baltimore field office.

“It’s hard to fill out a worksheet that just says, ‘Meet in the Home Depot parking lot,’” one of the former ICE officials told NBC News.

Despite everything the Trump administration says to the contrary, it’s been clear for months that ICE is not targeting individuals with criminal histories; it’s performing massive, indiscriminate sweeps. Back in May, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller yelled at ICE agents, threatening to fire them if they didn’t make at least 3,000 arrests a day.

In an attempt to stop the blatant racial profiling, a federal judge in July issued a temporary restraining order blocking ICE from conducting “roving patrols” that used people’s race, or their language, as a reason to detain them.

And it actually helped: An analysis from the right-leaning Cato Institute said that arrests fell 66 percent in L.A. after the order.

But on Monday, the Supreme Court lifted that order, and ICE officers are now free to racially profile broad swaths of people to their hearts’ content: in L.A., in D.C., and soon in Chicago.

For those who believe that this type of lawlessness should have consequences, there’s one silver lining. If officers make arrests without probable cause, they could be sued, according to ICE’s former chief counsel in Dallas. The now-defunct paperwork requirement wasn’t just in place to protect civilians from the agents but to protect ICE officers from legal liability.

As the White House grapples with the House Oversight Committee’s release of a lewd birthday letter from Donald Trump to Jeffrey Epstein, additional mentions of the president in the deceased sex criminal’s 50th birthday book have emerged.

On one page of the 2003 book, a man identified by House Oversight Committee Democrats as “a longtime Mar-a-Lago member” appears to joke about Epstein selling a woman to Trump for $22,500.

Epstein, standing alongside two men and a woman whose identity has been redacted, holds a giant check supposedly from Trump, in payment for the woman. The note reads: “Jeffrey showing early talents with money + women! Sells ‘fully depreciated’ [redacted] to Donald Trump for $22,500. Showed early ‘people skills’ too. Even though I handled the deal I didn’t get any of the money or the girl!”

As the president seeks to dispel the scandal surrounding perhaps the world’s most notorious sex trafficker, one would be hard-pressed to come up with a more embarrassing revelation than his name appearing on an enormous check for a woman from Epstein.

On another page, a letter from a woman whom Epstein apparently took around the world mentions meeting both Trump and former President Bill Clinton. (Clinton also reportedly penned Epstein a letter in the book.) “Before Jeffrey, I was a 22 year old divorcee working as a hostess in a hotel restaurant,” the message states. Since then, she wrote, she met Trump and Clinton, among other dignitaries.

The White House has been quiet about these pages thus far, as they instead seek to disprove the authenticity of the infamous birthday note in which Trump seems to have typed an unsettling poetic dialogue between himself and Epstein, framed by a marker drawing of a woman’s figure.

The letter’s release on Monday undermined the Trump administration’s claims that The Wall Street Journal’s prior reporting on the letter was fake. White House spokespeople have since persisted with that narrative nonetheless—desperately trotting out recent autographs by the president that appear different from Trump’s first-name signature on the 2003 birthday note. But examples abound of contemporaneous examples that are a perfect match.

Ghislane Maxwell’s former lawyer just admitted what we all suspected: The sexual abuser and Epstein accomplice was transferred to a nicer, minimum-security prison so that she could give the Trump administration something in exchange—like a favorable testimony. 

Arthur Aidala, who represented Maxwell in her 2022 sex-trafficking trial and appeals, appeared on CNN on Monday to talk about the case. 

“The deputy attorney general met with Ghislaine, and then she was shortly thereafter moved to a cushier prison,” CNN’s Abby Phillips asked Aidala, who has also represented Alan Dershowitz, Harvey Weinstein, and Rudy Giuliani. “Why?” 

“Well, there are things I’m not allowed to talk about, right?” Aidala replied, stumbling over his words. “So there are things I can’t talk about.”

“Let’s just—” Phillips attempted to interject. 

“Obviously I can talk in generalities,” Aidala continued. “Anybody who’s represented by a lawyer who knows what they’re doing, [and who] goes in and meets with the government … there’s always a quid pro quo.… Anytime the government wants information from a citizen, the citizen says, ‘Well, I have a right to remain silent. If you want me to give up that right, I need something in return.’ Usually, it’s a plea bargain. Usually, your charges are going to be lowered, and your exposure.”

Former Biden adviser Neera Tanden, who was present, started laughing at Aidala. 

“Why are you laughing?” he said. “I’ve done that for 35 years!” 

“Because you just admitted to a quid pro quo with the Trump administration!” 

“That’s how the whole system works! The whole system works on quid pro quo.” 

Phillips then asked Aidala if the government’s quid pro quo promise came before or after Maxwell sat for an interview with Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. Aidala said he didn’t know. 

Maxwell is still serving out her 20-year sentence for conspiring to sexually abuse girls. 

This revelation from Aidala, along with recent release of the Epstein birthday book, and Speaker Mike Johnson’s baffling lie about Trump being an FBI informant, only adds more fire to the theory that Trump is willfully cooperating with Maxwell to push her to absolve him of any scrutiny that his numerous appearances in the Epstein files will bring.   

The Trump administration allegedly “working” with such a vile woman while calling the entire fiasco a “Democrat hoax” is a slap in the face to Epstein’s numerous survivors and their families who have come forward.    

“It is with horror and outrage that we object to the preferential treatment convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has received,” said the family of Virginia Giuffre, an Epstein victim and legal advocate who committed suicide in April. “Ghislaine Maxwell is a sexual predator who physically assaulted minor children on multiple occasions, and she should never be shown any leniency. Yet, without any notification to the Maxwell victims, the government overnight has moved Maxwell to a minimum security luxury prison in Texas.… The Trump administration should not credit a word Maxwell says, as the government itself sought charges against Maxwell for being a serial liar. This move smacks of a cover up. The victims deserve better.” 

The White House is absolutely melting down over the unveiling of President Donald Trump’s lewd birthday letter to Jeffrey Epstein.

The Wall Street Journal on Monday published an image of Trump’s 50th birthday letter to Epstein, after it was delivered to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee by lawyers for the late sex trafficker’s estate. The letter included a signature that appeared to match Trump’s.

Having previously claimed the 2003 letter didn’t exist at all, the Trump administration attempted to keep up the farce.

“The latest piece published by the Wall Street Journal PROVES this entire ‘Birthday Card’ story is false,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed in a post on X.

“As I have said all along, it’s very clear President Trump did not draw this picture, and he did not sign it,” she wrote. “President Trump’s legal team will continue to aggressively pursue litigation.”

Leavitt didn’t offer up any potential plot holes in the story, but she did accuse the reporter Joe Palazzolo of requesting a comment only at the time of publication.

On the flip side, California Governor Gavin Newsom had fun drawing attention to Vice President JD Vance’s claim in July, when the letter was first reported, that it was “complete and utter bullshit.”

“Where is this letter?” Vance wrote back then. “Would you be shocked to learn they never showed it to us before publishing it? Does anyone honestly believe this sounds like Donald Trump?”

“This aged nicely,” Newsom wrote Monday in a post on X.

The House Oversight Committee obtained a copy of Jeffrey Epstein’s 50th birthday book on Monday.

The book, initially reported on by The Wall Street Journal, was said to contain a strange birthday poem from Trump to Epstein framed by a sketch of a woman’s figure.

The image released verifies the Journal’s reporting, showing the form of a woman surrounding a poem addressed to Epstein in which Trump allegedly wrote “a pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday—and may every day be another wonderful secret. Donald J. Trump.”

There is also a signature at the bottom of the woman’s figure, potentially mimicking pubic hair. It reads “Donald.”

The White House was quick to declare the image a fake, accusing The Wall Street Journal of defamation.

“The latest piece published by the Wall Street Journal PROVES this entire “Birthday Card” story is false,” wrote White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. “As I have said all along, it’s very clear President Trump did not draw this picture, and he did not sign it.”

“Time for @newscorp to open that checkbook, it’s not his signature,” White House deputy chief of staff for communications Taylor Budowich wrote. “DEFAMATION!” Attached to his post were four other images of more recent signatures from Trump that were a bit more rigid and sharp than the one shown in the Journal.

But unfortunately for Team Trump, there are countless examples of Trump signing other documents with the signature extremely similar to the one shown by the Journal, demonstrating that Trump’s signature has likely changed over time and that his signature is different when signing his first name versus both of his names.

“Taylor’s examples are all from after he became President, at least two are from 2024,” journalist Damien Toll wrote above Budowich’s post. “The birthday letter is from 2003. For comparison, here’s a book Trump signed for Epstein in 1997, also with just his first name.”

“Two seconds on google I found this 2005 autograph when his signature was clearly different. He spelled out both names. The Dons letter to his friend Jeff just has him signing Donald,” said Talking Point Memo’s Josh Marshall. “Back to the drawing board @TayFromCA.”

Another 1999 letter shows a similar Trump signature.

Each defense the Trump administration has offered has been shaky at best. When reports of his naked woman sketch to Epstein first came out, he responded with, “I don’t draw pictures.” The internet was quick to point out that outright lie, as at least five sketches of his have been auctioned off over the years. Now they’re dismissing a signature that looks very real.

The Trump administration continues to turn to lies and excuses as the Oversight Committee’s possession of the book may lead to new insight into Trump and Epstein’s relationship.