Three Trump-Appointed Judges Deliver Major Blow to Kalshi
Even judges appointed by Donald Trump recognize there’s a problem with the “prediction market” industry.

A federal court has dealt a serious blow to prediction markets, ruling that Kalshi can’t block the state of Nevada from regulating its platform.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco ruled 3-0 against Kalshi Friday, saying that federal commodity training law doesn’t block Nevada from also regulating the platform when it comes to betting on sports events. All three judges were appointed to the federal bench by President Trump.
Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson said Kalshi’s business clearly seems to be in sports betting, “a quintessential form of gambling” that would put it out of the purview of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He noted that Kalshi has run ads describing itself as “the first app for legal sports betting.”
“It is difficult, then, to conclude that Congress intended to upend its decades of careful regulation of gambling based on broad definitions of the words used in a Wall Street Reform Bill,” Nelson wrote in his ruling. “The CFTC is not a national gambling regulator. No one suggested it was until over a decade after the law was passed.”
The Trump administration has fought to keep states from regulating prediction markets, arguing that the CFTC is in charge. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, told Republican state attorneys general at a meeting earlier this year to back off any action against businesses like Kalshi and Polymarket. The lack of clarity over what laws govern prediction markets, which include betting on political and international events in addition to sports, has already proven to be a major problem.
Nevada’s win on Friday is one of several legal actions launched by both Republican and Democratic state governments against prediction markets, with 20 states in litigation over whether prediction markets fall under sports gambling laws. In July, 44 states signed a letter calling prediction markets a “new form of casino” endangering young people. In March, Arizona became the first state to criminally charge Kalshi for allowing people to bet on elections and “operating an illegal gambling business.”
In April, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia ruled against the state of New Jersey’s attempt to regulate prediction markets, setting up conflicting rulings and increasing the likelihood that the Supreme Court will address oversight of prediction markets in the near future.



