“Everybody Made Money”: Campaign Staff Are Betting on Their Candidates

Political insiders have found a new way to make cash off of election season.

Betting on the success or failure of political candidates has effectively become commonplace in the industry, NPR reported Thursday, with campaign staffers making thousands of dollars off of their respective candidates.

One staffer working on a statewide campaign in the south told NPR how an external poll, shared prior to its release with their team, launched a wave of internal bets in support of their candidate. Internal campaign data showed their candidate faring worse than the external poll, but that didn’t matter.

“Myself and others started placing bets before that poll came out,” the staffer told NPR on the condition of anonymity. “And then, sure enough as soon as that poll came out, the stock went up and everybody made money.”

There’s apparently no shame in the game, despite recent attempts by online prediction markets to curb the behavior. In late April, the prediction market Kalshi—better known for sports betting—banned and fined several political candidates after a company probe found they had bet on themselves.

“Because you have all this information and knowledge that isn’t publicly available yet, it’s almost foolish not to bet on it before it’s made public,” the staffer said.

The practice has raised questions about the ethics and legality of campaign betting, and what has become known as “political insider trading.”

The process is as easy as can be imagined: an insider will become privy to nonpublic polls related to the campaign, and use the unreleased odds from the poll to inform their bets on sites like PredictIt or Polymarket. If the new poll indicates better odds of success than the odds on the website, they’ll buy low with what’s known as an event contract—knowing that the poll, once released, will raise their candidate’s favorability.

“The most I’ve ever made is thousands,” the staffer told NPR.

FBI Director Kash Patel reportedly had a major meltdown when he lost one of his personalized bottles of bourbon.

The Atlantic reported Wednesday that Patel typically travels with a supply of personalized bottles of Woodford Reserve bourbon, branded with the words “Kash Patel FBI Director,” and a rendering of the FBI shield, surrounded by a band that features his favored spelling of his first name: “Ka$h.” Some of the bottles also include his signature and the number nine, a likely reference to Patel’s place in the lineage of FBI directors.

Patel and his team reportedly traveled with at least one case of bourbon to the FBI’s training facility in Quantico, Virginia, in March for a “training seminar” taught by Ultimate Fighting Championship athletes. At least one of the bottles of bourbon went missing, causing Patel to “lose his mind,” according to clients of Kurt Siuzdak, a retired agent who has assisted FBI agents with legal issues who spoke with The Atlantic.

Multiple agents contacted Siuzdak for legal guidance after Patel threatened to polygraph and prosecute staff over the missing bottle. “It turned into a shitshow,” Siuzdak said. Other attorneys told the magazine they’d received similar calls from FBI employees concerned about Patel’s bourbon bottles.

Siuzdak told the magazine that FBI agents “have a duty to disclose wrongdoing,” but it had become clear that if one made allegations against Patel, “you’re screwed.”

“I tell people to run from him,” Siuzdak, who had a more than 20-year career at the FBI, said of the advice he gives current FBI employees.

The Atlantic published this story the same day it was reported that the FBI was investigating the article’s author, Sarah Fitzpatrick, for a report she wrote last month that Patel was known to drink in excess, routinely delayed time-sensitive operations, and was often unreachable.

After The Atlantic published that first story, Patel filed a $250 million defamation suit against the publication, claiming the article was “replete with false and obviously fabricated allegations designed to destroy Director Patel’s reputation and drive him from office.” Fitzpatrick said even more sources reached out to her to discuss Patel’s leadership afterward—and clearly they have a lot to say.

Tornado sirens and flooding in Alabama’s state Capitol building couldn’t stop Republican lawmakers from forcing through two redistricting bills in their state legislature Wednesday.

The debate ran for five hours over House Bill 1, which allows for a new special election if federal courts lift an injunction and allow the state to redraw its congressional districts before 2030. A similarly long debate appeared certain for the other bill, Senate Bill 1, which would redraw two state Senate districts. But then, a storm with a tornado watch led to sirens and flooding in the building.

Water flooded into the first floor of the building at about 5 p.m. Central Time. The parking deck behind the statehouse, where staffers and lawmakers leave their cars, was also flooded. The storm initially didn’t stop proceedings, but when the fire alarm in the building went off, debate was quickly stopped and the lawmakers called for a vote.

Both bills faced heavy opposition from Democrats, who warned the legislation would stifle the political power of Alabama’s Black population.

“This body continues to find more ways to make voting more difficult, more ways to suppress the vote and more ways to dilute the power of the Black vote,” said Democratic state Representative Adline Clarke. “Make no mistake, that’s what H.B. 1 would do, and it’s a tragic step backwards for Black Alabama voters. But we’ve been here before, and we will not give up this fight.”

H.B. 1 would only take effect if federal courts reverse 2023 and 2025 rulings that Alabama’s legislature violated the Voting Rights Act. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the landmark civil rights legislation, opening the door for the courts to review those rulings. The Supreme Court decision has led to states across the Republican-led South to rush through redistricting that disenfranchises their Black populations.

Protesters gathered outside of the state Senate to object to S.B. 1, chanting, “We know you want us to leave, but we shall not be moved. Just like a tree, planted by the waters, we shall not be moved. This is the people’s house. We built this house. This is our house.”

The Trump administration is in panic mode as jet fuel prices continue to soar due to the U.S.-Israeli joint war on Iran and Lebanon, with the president’s advisers pushing him to end the war before summer, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

Jet fuel has become twice as expensive since the beginning of the war, and prices show no signs of falling. That’s causing airlines to add billions more in expenses and ticket prices to try to counteract the effects of the war—meaning the consumer will suffer. Skyrocketing fuel prices even caused Spirit Airlines to declare bankruptcy and shut down last week, even though Republicans blame the Biden administration. 

The vast majority of Americans are suffering at the pump, the airport, or both—and they’re correctly blaming it on Trump. Trump and his Cabinet have continuously downplayed the negative impacts the war is having on fuel prices, with the president stating that these high prices are “a very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.” Americans don’t see it that way, especially if it means their plans get canceled. If the senseless death, destruction, and displacement in Iran and Lebanon weren’t enough to catalyze people against Trump’s war, paying hundreds of dollars for a vacation ticket might.  

The future is looking bright for America’s youth—bright orange, that is.

Against the advice of dermatologists everywhere, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has cleared a path for children to keep getting their fix at tanning beds across the United States, the Los Angeles Times reported Wednesday.

The wellness conspiracist withdrew a proposed Food and Drug Administration rule earlier this year that would have curbed access to the carcinogenic, cancer-causing machines for anyone under the age of 18. The rule would have also required participating adults to sign a waiver acknowledging the health risks of using a man-made tanning device prior to use.

Medical researchers first linked ultraviolet exposure to skin damage in the 1930s, but public health agencies wouldn’t start actively advocating against aggressive U.V. exposure until much later. By the mid-1980s, the FDA was issuing warnings on “tanning pills,” setting formal limits on sunbed exposure, and spreading national public health messages about the “darker side of tanning,” educating the public about the heightened cancer risks related to artificial tanning.

Kennedy has not explicitly made bedside tanning a component of his “Make America Healthy Again” agenda, but the practice is clearly integral to his lifestyle. The 72-year-old has been spotted frequenting tanning salons around Washington and has been outspoken about their benefits. In the weeks leading up to the 2024 election, Kennedy railed against the FDA’s “war” on “sunshine” (among other wellness industry fixations, such as raw milk, hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin as miracle Covid cures, and psychedelics).

His fringe ideological acolytes have adopted tanning into their wellness routines, encouraging their own followers to abandon sunscreen and build up their “solar callus”—a newfangled reference to sun tolerance, reported the Los Angeles Times.

The FBI raid on the office of a Virginia state senator Wednesday in Portsmouth, Virginia, was reportedly spurred on by a former Justice Department lawyer who thought it would help Republicans in the midterms.

MS NOW reports that Lindsey Halligan, who was forced to leave the U.S. attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia earlier this year for being illegally appointed, had been pressuring prosecutors to charge L. Louise Lucas, a leader among Virginia Democrats who pushed for redistricting in the state.

“Louise Lucas is a … fairly prominent legislator in her state, but not known nationally, and the FBI and the Department of Justice have been investigating her for several years—three years, I’m told by a source familiar with the probe—and that investigation has been looking at evidence suggesting that she solicited or accepted bribes,” MS NOW senior investigative correspondent Carol Leonnig said on the network Wednesday.

Leonnig said that according to her source, when Halligan “had been running the U.S. attorney’s office in the Eastern District of Virginia, she had been pressuring and pushing prosecutors to bring charges against Lucas, believing that that would be important, a high-priority case.”

“I’m told that Halligan believed it would be good for the White House to be able, before the midterms, to accuse a prominent state Democrat in Virginia with bribery,” Leonnig added. “Prosecutors based out of Norfolk were not sure this was the strongest case in the world, but Halligan felt very strongly that it should be pressed.”

The FBI has not yet publicly commented on the reasons for the raid. Lucas is an ally of Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, and gained notoriety on social media for posting memes in support of Virginia’s redistricting effort and going toe-to-toe with Republicans like President Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. The raid of her office got instant coverage on Fox News, likely because a senior member of the DOJ, possibly acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, tipped them off. Was Lucas specifically targeted on trumped-up charges?

Donald Trump is insulting his supporters—again.

In the midst of a White House press event Wednesday promoting the executive mansion’s upcoming UFC tournament, mixed martial artist Justin Gaethje attempted to praise the president for normalizing UFC tournaments and humanizing its fighters. Instead, he got sucker-punched by an unexpectedly emotional jab from the man behind the Resolute Desk.

“I’m not sure many know how big of a part you were to the UFC becoming mainstream in the early ’90s, when nobody would let us—no one would believe in us, they thought they were absolute animals, and you gave us a chance to fight in your properties—” Gaethje said, before Trump interjected.

“Well, they were right about that,” Trump chirped.

But the joke was tepidly received.

“Well,” Gaethje said, hanging his head. “Somewhat, somewhat.”

Trump is a lifelong fan of boxing and MMA—so much so that he’s planning to host a UFC tournament on the White House lawn on his birthday, June 14. The main card will pit Gaethje against Ilia Topuria for the lightweight title, and Alex Pereira against Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title. UFC’s parent company, TKO Holdings, has promised that the entire event—which is expected to cost around $60 million—will be funded entirely by the sports organization and come at no cost to taxpayers.

It will be the first UFC event ever hosted at the White House, and while the fight itself may be unprecedented, Trump’s derogatory comments are anything but. Trump has made a career of grifting his supporters, pledging his love for them one moment while backhanding them the next.

Over the course of the last year, Trump has derided his base as “stupid” and “weaklings” for caring about the Epstein files (and Trump’s prominent place in them), suggested that American workers lack skill, and told a bloc of supporters at a senior community in Florida that the crowd likely wouldn’t be able to pass the cognitive exams he had taken to convey his mental acuity. (Trump’s recollections of the tests have called into question whether he actually took them at all, as some of the tests’ creators have said their exams are to check for dementia, not cognitive speed.)

Trump has a history of having a big mouth. Over the course of his political ascent, he has famously referred to women by their genitals, called deceased veterans “suckers” and “losers,” claimed that he loves the “poorly educated,” and said he could get away with shooting someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters, suggesting his base is gullible and blindly loyal.

Tennessee Republicans kicked Democratic lawmakers, journalists, and constituents out of a special redistricting session Wednesday as protests over their new congressional map engulfed the state House.

After one round of protests forced Republicans to shut down their meeting, they relocated to a new room, according to The Tennessean, and prevented anyone from entering.

Democratic state Representatives Gloria Johnson and Gabby Salinas were both told to leave the Judiciary Committee meeting as lawmakers discussed the GOP’s new congressional map, which would eliminate Democratic Representative Steve Cohen’s majority-Black Memphis area district and give Republicans a 9–0 majority in the state.

“Well folks, here we are—this special session where the people are yet again being ignored,” Johnson said in a video recorded outside of the meeting room doors, while dozens of chanting protesters raised their voices around her. “I thought I could go in the Senate Committee—they won’t even let me in. I got kicked out. I got kicked out. They are not letting members into committee.... The people were kicked out earlier.

“This is a travesty of justice,” Johnson continued. “If you can get down here, we need you down here fighting with us. Because this is a clear power grab taking away the voice of the people. This is the Republicans’ white power rally.”

Fellow Democrat Justin Pearson was barred from entering the meeting entirely, instead standing in the doorway while Cohen spoke.

The Senate Judiciary Committee later approved the map by a vote of 9–2, pushing it to the wider chamber, where it is expected to pass.

The 29-year-old woman Kristi Noem handpicked to oversee ICE’s billion-dollar budget just lost her nomination bid in an Ohio congressional primary.

Madison Sheahan, a former ICE deputy director, was in third place Wednesday when the Associated Press called the state’s 9th district Republican primary for former state Representative Derek Merrin.

Republican operatives consider Ohio’s 9th district one of the party’s best chances to flip a House seat, The Washington Post reported. The seat is currently held by Representative Marcy Kaptur, who has held onto it for 22 terms.

Sheahan had left her role at ICE to pursue her congressional campaign, shortly before her apparent mentor Noem was unceremoniously fired.

In her role, Sheahan reportedly wasted millions of taxpayer dollars on 2,500 custom-wrapped vehicles that read “ICE.” The gaudy cars feature massive ICE logos, red stripes, and a golden decal of President Donald Trump’s name on the back window. The vehicles first appeared in a DHS video intended to make ICE look cool. But the fleet of ostentatious cars proved useless to the masked militia, which prefers to disappear people using unmarked vehicles.

On the campaign trail, Sheahan touted her work with ICE, but political analysts found that immigration did not play as large a role in the primaries as economic issues such as the job market and tariffs, the Post reported.

Her candidacy was considered an early bellwether for how voters felt about Trump’s handling of immigration policy, and her resounding failure could signal disaster for other candidates too closely tied to the president’s unpopular policy initiatives.

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee claimed Wednesday that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick lied several times during his testimony about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

During a closed-door hearing to discuss his ties to the alleged sex trafficker, Lutnick reneged on past claims about Epstein recording his guests’ sexual misconduct and using it to blackmail them, Representative Ro Khanna told reporters after the hearing. Lutnick had previously called Epstein “the greatest blackmailer ever.”

“So, somebody obviously got to him, from the administration. In fact, he said he talked to people in the administration and that’s why he’s changed his tune,” Khanna said. “And the question is not just why he’s lying, the question is why he’s covering up. The question is why he’s no longer willing to share what he knows about Epstein’s abhorrent behavior.

“If Donald Trump had seen the video transcript he would’ve fired Howard Lutnick. It was very embarrassing,” the California Democrat added.

Lutnick swore in an interview last year he did not see Epstein after 2005, but it was then revealed he coordinated a family trip (with his young kids) to the financier’s “pedophile island” in 2012. Lutnick then confirmed he’d kept in touch with Epstein over the years, even after Epstein was convicted of soliciting prostitution from a minor.

“Howard Lutnick should resign,” Virginia Representative Suhas Subramanyam told reporters following the hearing. “That was absolutely mind-boggling, what we just heard in the room. He was evasive, nervous. He was dishonest.”

“He would not admit to lying, which he clearly did in the podcast,” Subramanyam said, referring to Lutnick’s remarks on the New York Post’s Pod Force One in October 2025, when the secretary claimed that after meeting Epstein, he decided he would “never be in the room with that disgusting person ever again.”

“I had to ask him whether he and I were in the same room, just now, because I couldn’t understand his meaning of ‘we were in the same room together,’” Subramanyam said.

Lutnick also refused to provide any explanation for why he and his family traveled to Epstein’s island.

“We asked him over and over again, ‘Why did you go to the island?’ He says he doesn’t remember, that it was inexplicable, and he simply didn’t know how to answer the question at that point,” Subramanyam said.