Trump’s Military Moves Spark Tsunami of Insider Trading

Prediction market analysts uncovered what looks like blatant insider trading within the U.S. military after a group of nine connected Polymarket accounts won more than $2.4 million by placing bets on Donald Trump’s war in Iran.

Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of data analytics firm Bubblemaps, told CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday that across more than 80 bets, a series of nine anonymous accounts had a 98 percent win rate placing bets on pivotal moments of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Vaiman said. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”

Last month, federal prosecutors charged Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old active-duty Army soldier involved in the planning and capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with using confidential intel to win $400,000 on Polymarket predictions related to the raid.

“Deebs,” Bubblemap’s head of investigations, who is a former U.S. military officer, told 60 Minutes that military markets are particularly ripe for rigging, as there are many individuals involved in organizing a military operation.

“And that means there are, consequently, a lot of potential insiders,” Deebs said.

David Kovel, a former commodities trader-turned-lawyer representing victims of fraud, pointed to March 23 as a prime example of suspicious trading. That day, just 15 minutes before Trump posted claiming the White House and Iran had “very good and productive” conversations about ending fighting, more than $800 million was staked on the odds that oil prices would drop. Trump’s post sent oil prices plummeting more than 10 percent.

“We’re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,” Kovel told 60 Minutes, adding that blaming insider trading was “a natural conclusion to draw.”

Federal investigators are reportedly probing the oil market trades, but Trump himself doesn’t seem too concerned about reports of insider trading. Instead, he lamented last month that “the whole world has become somewhat of a casino” while quietly planning to launch his own prediction market.

A report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed long shot wagers, meaning bets of more than $2,500 that have a less than 35 percent chance of winning, and found that 52 percent of bets on military and defense actions were successful, the highest rate of any political topic. “These were driven by highly successful wallets placing well-timed bets,” the report said.

The report pointed to the U.S. military’s surprise strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.

“Across day-specific markets that resolved ‘Yes’ after the strike, 19 longshot bets totalling $164,292 were placed in the hours immediately before the operation,” the report said. “Eight wallets walked away with $1.8 million in combined profit—one earning nearly $500,000—despite the strike relying on deception, decoy bombers, and stealth aircraft that left no public signal of timing.”

Practically no one attended Donald Trump’s eight-hour religious program Sunday on Washington’s National Mall.

Even the president—or his cabinet members—couldn’t be bothered to show up to Rededicate 250, which was billed as a “national jubilee of prayer, praise and thanksgiving.” A smattering of people attended the outdoor event, held during 90-degree weather and high humidity in the nation’s capital, to hear Trump’s glitchy, prerecorded message about God. Trump, meanwhile, was at the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia.

Appearing from his seat behind the Resolute Desk, Trump read a verse from 2 Chronicles 7:14 that urged people to “humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways.” The three-minute missive ended on an abrupt note, sparking slow applause as the sparse audience figured out that was all they’d be hearing from the president.

The one-day event was organized by the nonprofit Freedom 250 in a public-private partnership. It is not clear how much the lone Christian assembly cost, but the Department of the Interior has thrown at least $100 million at the nonprofit to organize several events in honor of the nation’s semiquincentennial, including a government-sponsored IndyCar street race through Washington on August 23 and a “Freedom Truck” mobile history museum.

Trump couldn’t even be bothered to read a new Bible passage or film a new clip for Sunday’s event: The prerecorded message from the president originally aired in April for an event called America Reads the Bible, reported the Associated Press.

The gathering was another indication as to what kind of America the Trump administration—and its MAGA acolytes—is willing to uplift. Prior to the ceremony, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson insisted that Christianity, rather than other religions or the freedom of religion, is a core tenant of the American identity.

“The naysayers who have created this new term ‘Christian Nationalism’ as a pejorative, a derogatory term, are trying to silence the influence and voices of Christians,” Johnson said in an interview with Fox News Sunday. “I think that’s wildly inappropriate.”

Instead of attending his administration’s nine-hour prayer festival on Sunday, President Trump decided to play golf at his club in northern Virginia.

Rather than speak at the Christian nationalist event, held as part of the America250 celebrations for the anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776, Trump instead sent a prerecorded video message where he read from the Biblical scripture 2 Chronicles 7:11-22, recycling a video he made last month for a marathon Bible reading organized by a Texas supporter.

On Truth Social, Trump barely mentioned the festival, posting a note at 8:30 am Sunday saying “I HOPE EVERYBODY AT REDEDICATE 250 IS HAVING A GOOD TIME. IF THERE IS ANYTHING I CAN DO TO HELP, JUST HAVE OUR BEAUTIFUL, BOTH INSIDE AND OUT, RACHAEL C.D., GIVE ME A CALL. I’M BACK FROM CHINA!!! President DJT.” For some reason, the post appeared to mention Rachel Campos-Duffy, the wife of Transportation Secretary Chris Duffy and a co-host on Fox and Friends Weekend.

Despite enjoying strong support from evangelical Christians in the U.S. and regularly professing his Christian faith, Trump does not appear to have attended any church services since his second inauguration in January 2025. On Easter Sunday, he opted to skip attending religious services and instead drove with his motorcade around the site of his proposed “Triumphal Arch.

Trump has provoked religious ire by repeatedly posting photos comparing himself to Jesus and picking fights with Pope Leo XIV. The backlash to the president has been strong in these cases, and may have even provoked the man who attacked the White House Correspondents Dinner last month. The president, however, has continued to golf and post through it all with no regard for consequences.

President Trump is officially dropping his $10 billion lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service, opting instead to create a $1.8 billion fund to further enrich himself, January 6 rioters, and virtually any right-winger who felt targeted by the Biden administration.

Trump initially attacked the IRS for allegedly allowing “a rogue, politically-motivated employee to leak private and confidential information about President Trump, his family, and the Trump Organization to The New York Times, ProPublica and other left-wing news outlets, which was then illegally released to millions of people,” Trump’s attorney said last week. “President Trump continues to hold those who wrong America and Americans accountable.” Now Trump is abandoning that in favor of using the IRS—which is under his executive purview—to get him and his friends paid without legal action.

What’s perhaps even more troubling is that Trump would be able to choose and fire members of this weaponization committee without cause, forming it in his own image with little to no oversight—as they aren’t required to reveal who the money goes to either.

“Waste, fraud, and abuse in the flesh,” California Governor Gavin Newsom wrote last Friday on X. “Donald Trump wants to settle his joke lawsuit against his own IRS department to hand out $1.7 BILLION of OUR TAX DOLLARS to Jan. 6th insurrectionists and his cronies.”

MAGA Republicans are teaching a scary lesson in the wake of Senator Bill Cassidy’s weekend primary loss: Do not cross Donald Trump.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham appeared on NBC News’s Meet the Press Sunday to spread the word.

“Are you glad that Senator Cassidy is no longer going to be your colleague, senator?” asked host Kristen Welker.

“No, I like Bill. I thought he was a great senator, but he made a political decision,” Graham said.

Cassidy was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial—a decision that, even five years on, has earned him the ire of his MAGA-aligned peers. Graham said Cassidy’s actions would have “ruined” Trump’s “political life” and kept him from ever “running for office again.”

Graham also threw shade at Representative Thomas Massie, another Trump dissenter whose primary is coming up on Tuesday, whining that the Kentucky Republican “votes against Trump all the time.”

“What’s the headline? ‘Trump strong,’” Graham said. “Those who try to destroy Trump politically—stand in the way of his agenda—are going to lose.”

“Bill made a decision. What would LBJ do?” the South Carolinian continued, referring to former President Lyndon B. Johnson. “Is it natural for a politician to go after people who try to destroy their political life? So, Bill Cassidy lost because he tried to destroy Trump. Massie is gonna lose because he’s trying to destroy the agenda.

“You can disagree with President Trump, but if you try to destroy him you’re going to lose, because this is the party of Donald Trump,” Graham concluded.

Cassidy was first elected in 2008 to represent Louisiana’s 6th congressional district, a thin, backslash-shaped region that spans from Shreveport in the northwest to Baton Rouge in the heart of Louisiana. The incumbent senator finished third in the district’s Republican primary on Saturday, officially pushing him out of the running. The remaining two candidates—including a Trump-endorsed state representative, Julia Letlow—are headed to a runoff in June.

A CSPAN caller who identified himself as a three-time Donald Trump voter compared the president to Adolf Hitler.

In a damning pulse-check on Trump’s second term, a caller, who identified himself as “Thomas from Hawaii,” told CSPAN’s Washington Journal Saturday that he regrets supporting Trump after realizing he was “the worst president we’ve ever had.”

“It’s hard for me to say this, but I think if I can open up about it in public that it might help others,” Thomas said. “I wanted to believe Trump was the real deal for a long time, even though I had doubts because I knew enough about his business history to think otherwise. But now I regret my support for him, and I should’ve known better. He’s making it plain as day.”

“He’s a con man, a liar, doesn’t keep his promises. He’s in office all for himself and he doesn’t even try to hide his corruption anymore.”

The caller added: “He’s the worst president we’ve ever had and he’s the most corrupt president we’ve ever had. I know it’s hard, it took me a while to be able to say that. Very difficult when you commit yourself to believing in somebody.”

Washington Journal host Taylor Popielarz asked what had been the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Thomas replied it wasn’t any one thing. “He was gonna lower prices on day one, he was gonna do this on day one, only he could fix all this stuff,” he said. “And now I understand how somebody like Adolf Hitler was able to brainwash millions of people. I never thought I’d see that again in my lifetime. But it’s happened, right? I thought we got past that, but we don’t learn from history.”

Thomas isn’t alone in his concerns.

In a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, seven in 10 Americans said that they were either “angry” or “frustrated” with Trump’s economic approach. A New York Times/Siena poll found that Trump’s approval rating has sunk to a second-term low of 37 percent amid his deeply unpopular war with Iran, which has sent the price of energy skyrocketing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report, released last week, found that inflation rose to 3.8 percent in April, outpacing wages, which grew at a rate of 3.6 percent. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues to tout cherry-picked data to show dropping prices.

President Trump capped off a long weekend of boomer-AI shitposting on Truth Social with a bizarre picture of him walking next to a handcuffed alien.

The Sunday afternoon post, made without comment, is perhaps his strangest since he posted himself as AI Jesus. And its timing makes no sense given the right-wing conspiracy theorist chatter that surrounded his recent promise to release the “UFO files.”

Our president also posted AI images of him sitting menacingly in some kind of Star Trek spaceship pressing a giant red button while explosions surround him.

In addition to the science fiction, Trump posted some AI images attacking his political rivals. There’s House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wearing a huge chain and throwing money around while superimposed over a war zone with the caption “Hakeem ‘low IQ’ Jeffries in his district.”

Representative Nancy Pelosi and former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden can be seen relaxing in sludge in the reflecting pool with the caption “Dumacrats love sewage.” Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Governor and future presidential candidate J.B. Pritzker are depicted as drooling, bumbling oafs with a “Dumb and Dumber: The Illinois Government” caption. And California Governor and likely 2028 candidate Gavin Newsom was made into a zombie on a California license plate.

The president is just as susceptible to AI as your average reel-scrolling American, and he’s using it to his heart’s content. One can only imagine the prompts entered and the conversations that go into the decision to post. It’s tacky, sad, and reeks of mental ineptitude. The Democratic attacks are par for the course, but who is the sci-fi for? Just wait until he finds out about AI food.

Less than one-third of Americans think President Trump’s war with Iran was a good idea.

A new poll from The New York Times and Siena University shows Trump’s decision to go to war has hurt his popularity, with his approval rating falling to a second-term low of just 37 percent. Most of the respondents said that the war was not worth the money spent on it, and do not have confidence that the economy will improve.

Across the board, voters disapprove of everything Trump is doing by majorities approaching 60 percent, according to the poll. About 59 percent of them disapprove of how he is handling his job as president, and 56 percent disapprove of how he’s handling immigration. 64 percent don’t approve of what he’s doing with the economy.

Trump is losing more independent voters by the day. In January, an earlier Times and Siena poll found 62 percent of independents didn’t approve of his job performance. This latest poll shows that number has increased to 69 percent. These voters will be critical in the coming midterm elections, threatening the Republican Party’s control of Congress.

The president and his party know this, but instead of changing course, they are seeking to aggressively gerrymander their districts ahead of November, giving them several new opportunities in Republican-led states and disenfranchising Black voters across the South. According to the poll, Democrats have a 10 percent advantage with all registered voters, and an 18 percent advantage with independents. Can that, coupled with Trump’s unpopularity, still give the party control of Congress?

President Trump promised to bring 500,000 Chinese students to American universities and allow China to own U.S. farmland—leaving the MAGAverse enraged. 

“But if you don’t have those students—good students, by the way—if you don’t … if they’re good and they want to stay in America, we won’t give them a green card and things like that,” Trump rambled on to Fox News’s Sean Hannity on Friday. “Frankly, I think that it’s good that people come from other countries and they learn our culture, and many of them want to stay here. I think it’s a good thing. Not everybody agrees with me, and it doesn’t sound like a very conservative position. And I’m as conservative—I’m a conservative guy. I’m really a common sense guy, I think, more than a conservative.” 

“People would argue they worry about whether they have nefarious intentions,” Hannity said.

“Sure, I know, and we worry about that, and honestly, you know, they do things to us, and we do things to them. It’s a very fine line, the whole thing with students,” Trump replied. 

This triggered a meltdown in MAGA’s considerable Sinophobic wing. “I respect President Trump, but if he brings 500,000 Chinese students to Florida colleges, I will raise tuition on them to $1,000,000/year,” Florida’s racist, groyper gubernatorial candidate James Fishback wrote. “As Governor, I refuse to let the  limited admission spots at our taxpayer-funded colleges be stolen by foreigners.”

“Actually, no, those 500,000 students are by law required to act as spies for China. This is the law in China. If removing them sinks some schools, then they deserve to sink,” MAGA influencer Robby Starbuck opined. “The only Chinese students we should invite are the top 0.001% who we should invite to defect to America. And farmland? Lol. We shouldn’t even let a Chinese company visit American farmland let alone own it. No exceptions. I give the Chinese credit, they would NEVER let Americans own their farmland. America First.”

“Trump says it’s insulting to tell China their students can’t go to our universities, imagine being an American student and receiving a rejection letter while 500,000 Chinese students get in!” former MAGA Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote. “And NO it is not ok for China to buy our farmland!!! And no that’s not common sense!!!”

It certainly makes sense for MAGA to be confused. Letting in hundreds of thousands of international students from the same country our leaders claim to be in a deep political rivalry with is not very “America First” of the president.

The Trump administration is hoping to trick Americans into thinking that prices are going down—while the actual numbers indicate the opposite. 

The U.S. Department of Labor posted a graphic on X Friday claiming that the prices of “many” goods were falling year-over-year, touting “THE TRUMP EFFECT!”

Independent journalist Justin Wolfers cross-referenced the chart with data from the Consumer Price Index and revealed that the dozen or so products the agency had chosen to highlight were blatantly cherry-picked. 

“You can lie in any language, including charts. But because charts come dressed in the authority of arithmetic, the betrayal often cuts deeper,” he wrote in his newsletter. “And sometimes, the lies are breathtaking.”

Missing from the Department of Labor’s graph are the many, many, many more products that have become more expensive—some by double digits. 

There are the obvious ones: the price of fuel oil has increased by 54.3 percent, and gasoline has increased by 28.4 percent, as a result of Donald Trump’s disastrous military campaign in Iran. 

Other products that have seen double-digit price increases are coffee (18.5 percent), beef (17.8 percent,) and airline tickets (20.7 percent). Computer software and accessories rose 13.9 percent, delivery services by 13.6 percent, and public transportation by 13.7 percent. The price of fresh vegetables grew 11.5 percent, and even the humble hot dog is now 10.7 percent more expensive than it was last year.  

These are just some of the biggest jumps. Wolfers found 238 other products and services that saw price increases in the past year. 

The  inclusion of some products highlighted by the Labor Department are extremely misleading. The price of eggs had already crashed at least 70 percent by mid-September since the highs of March that were brought about by the bird flu outbreak last year. The price of health insurance is not going down because health insurance premiums are increasing as millions could lose access to Medicaid. There are not triumphs of the Trump administration—they’re a smokescreen. 

Americans don’t need to be told that prices are increasing—they can feel it. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report, released Tuesday, found that inflation rose to 3.8 percent in April, outpacing wages, which grew at a rate of 3.6 percent.