Don’t Listen to Any of the 2024 Polls on Trump

Donald Trump would be the preferred Republican presidential nominee in a multicandidate race, a poll published Thursday by NPR found, a sobering revelation after weeks of predictions that Trump isn’t popular enough to win the next election.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that 45 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents prefer Trump for the party’s nominee. Thirty-three percent favored Ron DeSantis, a mere 8 percent said they liked former Vice President Mike Pence, and 11 percent said they wanted someone else entirely.

But several polls published in the past few weeks reflected a different outcome.

A Wall Street Journal poll published Wednesday found that in a race between the two, DeSantis would win 52 percent of votes to Trump’s 38 percent among Republican primary voters. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that Trump’s approval rating among voters had hit its lowest point in seven years.

Only 31 percent of all registered voters viewed him favorably, although 70 percent of Republicans still like him.

Several YouGov surveys conducted in November had DeSantis leading Trump in a hypothetical primary. A poll released on December 1 showed DeSantis had dropped behind Trump, but only by six percentage points.

The results of these polls may seem contradictory, but here’s the thing: Political polls aren’t really good representations of what the entire country is thinking.

Such surveys tend to overrepresent people who are more active politically or in their community, according to the Pew Research Center. Polls also seek to capture how all adults in the country feel, while election results generally reflect only about 40 percent of public opinion for regular elections and 60 percent for presidential ones.

Polls massively missed the mark about the results of the 2016 and 2020 elections. For the recent midterm elections, polls consistently predicted there would be an overwhelming “red wave” that would see Republicans easily sweep control of Congress.

Instead, Democrats kept control of the Senate—even flipping a seat—and Republicans took control of the House of Representatives by just a few seats.

Which is all to say, it ain’t over til it’s over.

The Twitter account tracking Elon Musk’s private jet may have been suspended Wednesday, but that won’t stop the person running it.

Jack Sweeney ran the account called @ElonJet, which tracked the location of the billionaire’s private plane. This information is publicly available on websites such as FlightAware.

But on Wednesday, the account was suspended, a month after Musk had promised not to do so in the name of “free speech.”

A few hours later, Sweeney’s personal account was also suspended, as were the more than 30 other accounts he runs that track the private jets of celebrities, including Mark Zuckerberg, Donald Trump, and Kim Kardashian.

And now Sweeney is ready for war.

The 20-year-old university student told Insider that he intends to keep tracking Musk’s jet on other platforms.

“I mean, fuck this guy,” Sweeney said, referring to Musk, about the suspensions. “This is ridiculous.”

Before the additional suspensions, Sweeney had already confirmed to press that he is working on a website version of the tracker.

“It’s important to hold people accountable, no matter what side they’re on,” he told BuzzFeed News.

“Now I’m going to keep going forever,” he continued. “I guess I can’t let him win now.”

Sweeney said over the weekend that his account had already been “shadowbanned,” meaning its visibility had been restricted. In a series of tweets that went viral, he claimed that Twitter was suppressing his posts.

This is not the first time that one of Musk’s Twitter beefs has resulted in an account suspension.

Several comedians and actors were suspended for mocking the Tesla founder, while a few prominent liberal accounts were blocked (and ultimately reinstated) for no apparent reason.

Meanwhile, hate speech and abuse have flourished on the platform since Musk took over in late October.

While Democrats navigate a newly insecure 51–49 Senate, with Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s recent switch to independent, it’s worth revisiting how close they were to maintaining a majority in the House.

A new report from Inside Elections details how, in the five closest GOP House wins, the Republicans won by a combined measly 6,652 votes. Republicans’ gain of any seats at all came from just 22,370 votes, the combined margin of their nine closest victories.

The most razor-thin victory was Colorado Representative Lauren Boebert’s closing win over Democrat Adam Frisch. The far-right candidate, expected to win 97 times out of 100 in FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator, had won the district previously by six points. This November, she won by 546 votes—a 0.16 percent margin that triggered an automatic recount. (The Inside Elections report did not take into account Boebert’s even lower margin of victory after the recount, and we’ve updated the numbers in this piece accordingly.)

Elsewhere, in New York, the state Democrats allowed a disastrous string of losses, with two races being lost by less than one percent, including the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Sean Patrick Maloney.

A combination of state party mismanagement, a lack of strong top-of-ticket campaigning from reelected Governor Kathy Hochul, and a disadvantageous redistricting spurred by former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s appointed judges all contributed to New York Democrats’ disastrous results.

In total, New York Democrats lost six races in redistricted sections that voted for Biden in 2020. Next year, the balance of power in the House will be 222–213, with a Republican majority. Six seats the other way, not even counting any other close race Democrats lost, would have made it 216–219, letting Democrats keep their hold of the House.

Of course, Democrats won narrow races too. And these wins came not just from coasting off attacking MAGA candidates as such but actually doing the work of campaigning.

As Slate’s Alex Sammon points out, one of Democrats’ major upsets—Marie Glusenkamp Perez’s House win in rural Washington—benefited from a massive organic ground game. The operation came despite lackluster financial support from the DCCC (losing-candidate Maloney’s committee), which dismissed the race as a “reach.”

The balance is nevertheless tight. Kevin McCarthy still hasn’t corralled together 218 votes to claim the speakership. Maybe Democrats could compensate for their losses and, instead of constantly leveraging the left, pressure McCarthy—or another potential Republican speaker—for some favors in exchange for the gavel.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced an interest rate hike of 0.5 percent, easing up a bit after a series of much higher increases.

With inflation at a record high, the Fed has been scrambling to get interest rates high enough to discourage people from spending money, slowing the economy down in turn. The last four rate hikes have been 0.75 percent.

The risk is that growth will slow while prices and borrowing rates stay high, sending the economy into a recession. Fortunately, there have been some signs that inflation is finally starting to ease a bit. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that while “it’s good to see progress … we have a long ways to go to get back to price stability.”

In a statement, the Fed pointed to supply chain issues and high food and energy prices due to Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine as main factors for inflation continuing to stay high.

But also, “recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low,” the statement said.

Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy and Research, answered five questions about what this means going forward.

1. What does the 0.5 percent interest rate increase mean for consumers?

The interest rate hike means that rates for credit card debt, mortgages, and car loans will likely go up, Baker said—albeit less than after the Fed’s last policy meeting in November.

Over the past year, the rate hikes have also slowed down the housing market. However, Baker noted, “the number of construction workers has not fallen” due to a backlog in unfinished construction projects.

Jobs numbers have stayed high, which is positive for consumers but has caused concern for some experts that the economy has not slowed sufficiently to avoid a downturn.

Baker also warned that the higher interest rates push up the value of the dollar too, “which makes our goods less competitive internationally.”

2. What has changed in the past month that gives the Fed enough confidence to start slowing rate hikes?

But it’s not all bad news: “Inflation is clearly slowing in many areas,” Baker said. The October and November consumer price index, or CPI, a key government measure of inflation, indicate that inflation finally seems to be slowing a bit.

Baker attributes this to supply chain issues getting resolved. Costs for appliances and used cars, as well as shipping, have fallen.

3. Now that the Fed has been hammering away at inflation, what changes can people expect to start seeing?

The Fed indicated in its statement that it will continue to reevaluate the economic situation to determine what moves are necessary to get and keep inflation under control.

“The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the statement said.

Powell told reporters that “it’s our judgment today that we’re not at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance yet, which is why we say that we would expect that ongoing hikes will be appropriate.”

But Baker said he hopes Powell “will indicate that he is prepared to adopt a wait and see attitude and hold off on further rate hikes.”

“This should mean further declines in mortgage and other interest rates,” he said.

4. Can a soft landing still be achieved?

The Fed has been clear its goal is to achieve a so-called soft landing, or a decrease in inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. And fortunately, the chances of a soft landing “look very good right now,” Baker said.

Inflation has slowed, but employment levels have remained high. It may take a while to reach the central bank’s target of 2 percent inflation, “but the direction of change is clearly downward,” according to Baker.

5. What are the current chances of a recession?

As the likelihood of a soft landing goes up, the likelihood of a recession goes down. In Baker’s opinion, the chances of a recession are “well under 50 percent at this point.”

The U.S. economy will probably take a hit from weaker markets abroad, as Europe struggles with direct effects from the Ukraine war and China battles a massive spike in Covid-19. But Baker is optimistic that won’t be sufficient to tip the U.S. into a recession.

“The biggest risks are from another wave of Covid or a big flare-up in the war in Ukraine,” the said.

This article has been updated.

People on the right seem unable to stop comparing Representative Ilhan Omar to white supremacists.

David Friedman, an adviser to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign who served under him as the U.S. ambassador to Israel, shared a tweet Tuesday that put the congresswoman on a level with Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes.

It is, of course, absolutely bananas to compare Omar and Fuentes. Since taking office in 2019, Omar—one of the first two Muslim women elected to Congress—has been repeatedly accused of antisemitism.

In early 2019, she said the U.S.-Israel relationship was “all about the Benjamins,” a reference to $100 bills. Omar was accused of propagating an antisemitic trope that Jewish people use money for influence. When she heard the criticism, she “unequivocally” apologized for her language.

But the claim that Omar is an antisemite has continued, often fueled by bad-faith attacks on her criticism of Israel. She was accused of saying Jews hold dual loyalty, for example, when she was actually accusing U.S. politicians of being overly pro-Israel.

Fuentes, on the other hand, actively promotes antisemitic views, such as denying the Holocaust and praising Hitler. A white Christian nationalist, he has said Jews are not part of Western civilization because they’re not Christian, and he has expressed support for a Catholic autocracy in the U.S. He has spread Covid-19 conspiracy theories and embraced homophobic and transphobic stances.

He is also apparently now close with Kanye West, who said he sympathizes with Nazis and likes Hitler.

Friedman’s comments came after Representative Kevin McCarthy doubled down on his promise to remove Omar from the House Foreign Affairs Committee should he be elected speaker of the House, again accusing her of antisemitism.

A coalition of liberal Jewish groups pushed back on him, saying his decision was “based on false accusations that she is antisemitic or anti-Israel.”

“We may not agree with some of Congresswoman Omar’s opinions, but we categorically reject the suggestion that any of her policy positions or statements merit disqualification from her role on the committee,” the groups said in an open letter published Monday.

“Leader McCarthy’s pledge seems especially exploitative in light of the rampant promotion of antisemitic tropes and conspiracy theories by him and his top deputies amid a surge in dangerous right-wing antisemitism.”

McCarthy has not explicitly condemned Trump for meeting with Fuentes last month, and actually defended the former president over it.

Omar has also hit out at McCarthy’s hypocrisy, saying on Twitter: “He does not care one bit about Jewish safety or any religious minority in our country.”

There have been at least 14 attacks on power stations across the country this year.

On December 3, two North Carolina power stations were struck with gunfire, leading to some 40,000 residents being without power, many of them for days.

Since mid-November, Oregon’s and western Washington’s electrical grids have been host to six attacks—some led by people with firearms—leaving customers experiencing brief outages in both states.

And in September, substations in Florida were targeted six times, with intruders forcing entry and tripping equipment that caused brief outages.

Federal agencies are becoming increasingly concerned amid the string of attacks. On December 2, the FBI co-issued a memo warning utilities about the attacks. North Carolina’s stations were attacked just a day later.

At the end of November, the Department of Homeland Security warned that “lone offenders and small groups” were continuing “to pose a persistent and lethal threat to the Homeland,” including on U.S. “critical infrastructure.”

In January, The Daily Beast obtained an earlier DHS intelligence report warning that extremist groups identified the “electric grid as a particularly attractive target given its interdependency with other infrastructure sectors.”

And earlier this month, CNN obtained a 14-page document circulating on Telegram that included a white supremacist instruction guide for how to conduct low-technology attacks that foment chaos, including attacking a power grid with firearms.

“When the lights don’t come back on … all hell will break lose [sic], making conditions desirable for our race to once again take back what is ours,” the document reads.

In February, three men pleaded guilty of plotting to attack substations with firearms; the trio were alleged white supremacists who had for years strategized how to incite civil unrest, a potential race war, and subsequently the second Great Depression.

The infrastructure connecting the nation is under increasingly high threat. And if enough light isn’t shined on what’s going on, we may soon lose that light, literally.

On Tuesday, Oregon Governor Kate Brown announced the state will be commuting the sentences of all 17 people on death row in the state, moving them instead to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

“I have long believed that justice is not advanced by taking a life, and the state should not be in the business of executing people—even if a terrible crime placed them in prison,” Brown said in a statement.

Brown’s action pushes forward with moratoriums first established by her Democratic predecessor, John Kitzhaber, in 2011.

“I also recognize the pain and uncertainty victims experience as they wait for decades while individuals sit on death row—especially in states with moratoriums on executions—without resolution. My hope is that this commutation will bring us a significant step closer to finality in these cases.”

Brown’s decision, made as she prepares to depart office after being term-limited, follows a growing opposition to the death penalty. Twenty-three states and Washington, D.C., have abolished the death penalty, while two others, California and Pennsylvania, have governor-issued moratoriums, as Oregon previously had. The death penalty is still legal in 27 states, including the states with moratoriums.

According to the Death Penalty Information Center, 17 people have been executed in 2022, all in Alabama, Arizona, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas, as of November 29. And as of April 1, over 2,400 people are on death row.

“The death penalty is immoral. It is an irreversible punishment that does not allow for correction; is wasteful of taxpayer dollars; does not make communities safer; and cannot be and never has been administered fairly and equitably,” Brown said.

LGBTQ activists and allies in San Antonio, Texas, turned a far-right attack on a drag show into an open-air party.

On Tuesday night, armed members of “This Is Texas Freedom Force,” which the FBI calls an “extremist militia group,” protested outside San Antonio’s Aztec Theatre as it hosted a drag show.

The protesters carried signs reading “Stop Groomers and Pedos,” while members of the San Antonio Family Association were also in attendance, waving signs reading “Marriage = Husband + Wife,” and “Honk for Marriage.”

But counterprotesters showed up in even bigger numbers on Tuesday, and according to Texas Observer reporter Steven Monacelli, they turned the night into a giant party.

A November report from GLAAD found that drag events faced at least 124 significant threats, just this year. Last week, another San Antonio venue, The Starlighter, canceled drag events for the rest of year due to safety threats and harassment.

Many of the far-right protesters on Tuesday came bearing arms, and so too did the counterprotesters, including a military veteran who sported a “FCK NZS” patch on his vest as he sought to support LGBTQ people.

In a basic sense, it’s obviously disheartening to see people take up arms against one other. No less while one side—whether by forced delusion from profiteering right-wing hacks or their own entrenched reactionary views—seeks to strip away fundamental civil rights from people.

On the other hand, the manner in which masses showed up to defend those whose rights are under attack is animating.

This kind of protest—one that presents a rejection of the restrictive and angry nature of reactionary conservatism—is profound. The counterprotesters, in their “open air party” allyship, showcased what can come from sharing compassion and love and radical empathy with people. That kind of joy can maintain a movement and can perhaps welcome others to join, even those who may have been seen as “too far gone.”

The Twitter account tracking Elon Musk’s private jet has been suspended, a month after Musk had promised not to ban the profile in the name of “free speech.”

Jack Sweeney, who ran the jet tracker, had told Business Insider on Sunday that his account had already been “shadowbanned,” meaning its visibility had been restricted. As of Wednesday, the account was fully removed.

Since Musk—a self-described “free speech absolutist,” except, apparently, when it comes to jokes at his expense—took over Twitter, multiple accounts have been banned for a variety of reasons.

Several comedians and actors were suspended for mocking the Tesla founder, while a few prominent liberal accounts were blocked (and ultimately reinstated) for no apparent reason.

But other forms of free speech have abounded under Musk. In the 12 hours alone following his chaotic Twitter takeover, use of the n-word increased almost 500 percent, according to the National Contagion Research Institute.

A report released Tuesday by Media Matters and GLAAD found that anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, particularly use of the word “groomer,” has shot up since Musk took the reins in October. Nine well-known anti-LGBTQ accounts saw a 1,200 percent increase in retweets of posts using the slur.

Meanwhile, mentions of a prominent pro-LGBTQ account in tweets using the slur rose more than 225,000 percent.

And Musk has restored accounts previously suspended for propagating violence, including former President Donald Trump and neo-Nazi Andrew Anglin.

Twitter has also dropped its Covid-19 misinformation regulations, and on Monday night dissolved its Trust and Safety Council, the independent advisory group formed in 2016 to address issues on the platform including hate speech, violence, and abuse.

It would seem Twitter is becoming less of a free speech haven and more of a “free-for-all hellscape”...which Musk also promised would not happen.

Sean Casten has no shame when it comes to climate advocacy.

In fact, the Illinois representative spent his Tuesday morning singing praises for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), to the tune of Rihanna’s “Work.”

“To my colleagues in the Senate, the eyes of the nation in this chamber are on you, we will never, no never, neglect you. We do not hold your past against you,” Casten urged the Senate, to a rhythm that would make Lin Manuel-Miranda blush. “But you need to get it done, done, done, done, done, done.”

“Mr. Speaker, what else can I say, I’m trying babe,” Casten finished, yielding to presiding Speaker Pat Ryan.

FERC oversees much of the energy sector, including interstate electricity transmission, hydroelectric project licensing, and natural gas and oil pipeline projects. Casten—who beat a six-term Republican incumbent in his district in 2018—was seeking to bring attention to the Senate failing to renominate FERC’s fifth commissioner, Chairman Richard Glick.

Biden had set a previous goal of a zero-carbon pollution power sector by 2035, and a net-zero emissions economy by 2050, something the Inflation Reduction Act puts America on track to approach. Massive electricity generation, transmission, and storage are needed to attain such goals. Without a fully-staffed FERC, it’ll be hard to meet them.

The danger is if any FERC decisions related to the energy transition are split 2-2, Casten told The New Republic. “The things that we’re trying to do, that capital markets are trying to do, to give us cleaner, more reliable, more efficient energy are now going to be stalled just for a bureaucratic reason because we didn’t appoint a commissioner. It’s an own-goal.”

“A deadlocked FERC would eliminate up to 80 percent of the emissions reductions created by the IRA,” Casten noted in his musical remarks Tuesday.

For months, the fate of Glick’s renomination has been up in the air. Senator Joe Manchin, who has enjoyed millions of dollars from coal companies he founded, chairs the Energy and Natural Resources Committee tasked with conducting hearings with FERC nominees. Thus far, the senator has refused to hold a hearing.

In March, Manchin did call a hearing, but only to reprimand Glick and the commission’s Democrats for requiring more information from natural gas projects about their economic justification and environmental impacts. And Manchin was further incensed after President Biden last month called to shut down coal-powered energy plants.

Manchin, who has spent months lobbying for permitting reform that would—beyond clearing the path for a natural gas pet project in his own state—ostensibly promote construction of new electrical transmission lines, is hindering the staffing of the agency that would oversee that reform. He moreover threatens the timely execution of the IRA, one of Biden’s most signature accomplishments.

Last year, Casten led a #HotFERCSummer campaign featuring House floor renditions inspired by Megan Thee Stallion, Fergie, and Dolly Parton to advocate for FERC-related legislation and to fill a previously empty FERC seat, which was completed in November 2021.

And his advocacy continues.

“Having had some degree of success to break the deadlock last time—just at the expense of humiliating myself on the House floor—I thought we’d try to do it again and cringe it up and do some more dad jokes and see if we can strike lightning twice.”