The Never Trump Moment Is Over. Does Harris Realize It?

This week, I’ve been having rude flashbacks to one of the dumbest and cringiest campaign decisions in recent memory. In the waning days of the 2021 gubernatorial race in Virginia, the folks at the Never Trump outfit the Lincoln Project inexplicably tried to do a stunt in which five of their members, cosplaying as tiki torch–carrying white supremacists, turned out as fake supporters of Glenn Youngkin at a Charlottesville campaign stop. It fooled nobody, and it went over about as well as dengue fever in a day care. Everyone involved should have been driven out of both the Commonwealth of Virginia and politics in general.

I am not going to attribute Terry McAuliffe’s eventual loss to these idiots. But I am going to let it stand as an example of how the Never Trump Republican set, especially those who plied their trade doing dark arts against Democrats for decades before being forced out of their own party, don’t have the greatest political instincts. It’s kind of axiomatic, really: If they did have good political instincts, there wouldn’t even be “Never Trump Republicans.” But now, instead of celebrating—I don’t know—President Marco Rubio’s Supreme Court and the way it gutted Roe and ended Chevron deference, they’re all looking at each other with hangdog faces, trying so hard to remember that they enthusiastically support Democrats now.

All of which brings us to Kamala Harris, who has recently taken the Never Trump Republican community unto her bosom, in an effort to pull mildly conservative fence-sitters into her camp with some light Dick and Liz Cheney slap and tickle. There is definitely defensible politics in this collaboration—and if you’ve any familiarity with the Democratic Party, you know that this is the traditional time for its great Pivot to the Center. But that pivot happened a while ago. And while I don’t think of this necessarily as a Faustian bargain, I am concerned that Harris might have taken this partnership too far.

Let me start by saying that there are things that don’t worry me about Harris’s embrace of supportive Republicans. Unlike your pissy friend on Twitter—or the progressive leaders who’ve recently fretted about the matter to the press—I’m not concerned about Harris voters getting demoralized or demobilized at the sight of Harris campaigning with Republicans. If you climbed aboard this campaign back in its gung-ho, good vibes days, there’s no logical reason to have jumped off the bandwagon. I’m certainly not mad that Dick Cheney is going to vote for Harris—I’ve been waiting for that gobshite to come around to my way of thinking for years, and he should keep right on shedding his wrong and dumb political ideas in favor of my smart and correct ones. As a general rule, you should never feel insecure about your political convictions if the worst person you know starts to agree with you, and anyone who’d tell you otherwise doesn’t have your best interests at heart.

Similarly, I’m not worried about Harris selling out anything significant on the domestic policy front. She actually looks a little better than Biden (who thought he had a duty to try to work with the GOP) and a lot better than Obama (who, under no real pressure, constantly angled to give away big New Deal entitlement programs to Republicans in return for nothing). I am slightly more worried that the Never Trumpers have had a malign influence on Harris’s foreign policy and immigration messaging, but this is leavened somewhat by the fact that Democrats are really bad on these issues all on their own. (Similarly, to the extent that Harris has worse economic ideas than Biden, I am convinced she comes by them honestly. Most Democrats simply don’t share Biden’s good and correct opinions on these issues!)

The far more pressing problem here is about political tactics, not policy, and especially so in Pennsylvania, where the “Liz Cheney and the Democracy Defense Avengers” pageantry is not resonating. And that might be putting it charitably: According to a fresh survey from the Center for Working-Class Politics, or CWCP, Harris’s “democracy threat” messaging is a huge dud: “the least popular message among the working-class constituencies Harris and the Democrats need most.”

This is especially concerning because these voters are bucking an overall national trend: Recent polls have found that democracy is creeping back to the front of mind for most voters as a key issue. But if this election comes down to Pennsylvania, as it well might, Democrats may not be targeting the voters who will decide the race with the right rhetoric. As the CWCP’s Dustin Guastella puts it, “All of this suggests that the messaging pivot is a big mistake.”

It is true that the Never Trump Republican set are eager beavers. And their presence in Kamala’s camp helps to reach certain voters and assure them that Harris isn’t a Marxist. And as I noted last week, Harris’s associations with influential Republicans may help conservative election officials withstand the pressure that will inevitably come from Trump to commit election fraud.

But Never Trumpers are, strictly speaking, not Democrats. Nor do they have experience doing Democratic Party organizing or campaigning. And so they likely miss something essential: A lot of the non-MAGA diehards who have gravitated toward Trump over the years have done so because he has convinced them that he intends to shake up the status quo in Washington and take on the old plutocratic, warmongering GOP elite. Harris runs the risk of making Trump seem like a guy who’s going to break the shitty corrupt system that these Americans hate if she’s seen as too inextricably linked to the Cheneys, who may as well have their picture in the dictionary next to “shitty corrupt system.”

At this point, Harris is better off making the kind of arguments that the guys from the Lincoln Project don’t know how to make, and for which the Cheneys aren’t an avatar: Democrats have better policies and politics than the GOP. Democrats will replace Alito and Thomas with liberals who support abortion rights. Democrats will stop Trump from implementing a mass deportation scheme that will blow up the economy. Democrats will preserve Obamacare and Social Security. And the Democrats’ “enemies within” aren’t Haitians or trans people or the line producer at 60 Minutes—they’re corporate special interests and financial sector cheats who’ve been stealing your money. Democrats will run these dirty thieves to ground and crush them into pulp.

I don’t want to ride the Harris campaign too hard here. They ended up with a campaign that was awkwardly bootstrapped to a Biden reelection effort that barely launched, they’ve not shown a whit of complacency since grabbing the reins, and they have to operate in an unforgiving electoral environment where Republicans have a lot of room for error while Democrats have to be perfect. And however belatedly, a messaging shift does appear to be underway. This team has very nearly completed the political equivalent of drawing to an inside straight.

But like it or not, if Harris bottles this race at the end, it’s going to end up serving as a kind of referendum on a centrist style of Democratic politics that simply cannot, in 2024, afford to fail on its own terms. And should it fail, it will take the Never Trump Republicans down with it. So perhaps here in the final act, it’s time for a parting of the ways. The Never Trump set should perhaps do the thing they should have done a better job at when Trump first emerged: tend to their knitting. Let them get their souls to the polls and quietly convince any remaining persuadable voters to disembark the Trump train. And let Harris be what she needs to be: a person who typically champions the kinds of things Never Trump Republicans hate, running against a guy who isn’t really all that different from the politicians they have historically supported.

This article was adapted from Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here.

Last week, on these pages, I went into some detail about big issues that Vice President Kamala Harris needed to incorporate into her closing argument, lest she miss opportunities to draw important attention to—and contrasts with—what a second Trump term would mean for America. Since then, I’ve realized I missed an opportunity of my own. As a rather relentless assault of political news reminded me, beyond his bad policies and ideas, Trump is a uniquely dangerous threat to our democracy. It’s not a matter that should go unmentioned for too long.

Fortunately, Kamala Harris doesn’t seem to need urging from me to take up this matter. In her most recent work on the stump, she’s gone to great lengths to raise the salience of the danger that Trump poses. What’s more, she’s making her case in a way that gets media attention and appeals to wide swaths of the electorate—and she’s making her democracy case at a moment when the public seems ready to hear it. The approach she’s taking is some of her best strategic output since her debate.

Trump’s been giving her a lot of material to work with lately. His most recent stump speeches have been nearly undiluted herrenvolk pornography, flamboyant arias against migrants and other “enemies within,” coupled with some of the most despotic ideas he’s ever mused about, including invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to dispose of his political enemies. (His former secretary of defense has urged people to take Trump seriously in this regard.) These recent appearances have been so disturbing that his Monday rally in which he slipped into a fugue and swayed to music for a half an hour seemed to be a nice break from relentless invocations to political violence and oblique threats to political rivals.

Far from letting Trump slide, Harris has been making Trump’s recent rants the centerpiece of her campaign appearances. On Wednesday, Harris appeared at a rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, with former GOP Representatives Adam Kinzinger and Barbara Comstock and a slew of other Never Trump Republicans, and made a speech about protecting our constitutional values. She wove in recent news—Trump’s aforementioned plans to punish his political enemies; General Mark Milley’s warning that the former president was “fascist to the core”—in an effort to make these stakes clear: “He considers any American who doesn’t support him or bend to his will to be an enemy to our country.… He says that as commander in chief he would use our military to go after them. Honestly, let that sink in: Trump is increasingly unstable and unhinged.”

As NPR noted, this turn from Harris is part of a larger effort to “appeal to moderate Republicans and independent voters,” which may cause some consternation to those who’d prefer she center her rhetorical efforts toward left-liberal audiences. But Harris’s overtures to center-right fence-sitters aren’t the bipartisan triangulations of yesteryear. Harris isn’t Biden, making impossible promises to lead GOP electeds back off the QAnon cliff, and she’s certainly not following Barack Obama into the Grand Bargain weeds. 

Harris needs moderate suburbanites to climb on board with her. The Democrats have a rough Senate map, so Harris has to run in a way that might help save Montana Senator Jon Tester’s job. But this outreach is all about democracy as well: Some of the Republicans Harris might reach are conservative election officials who haven’t drunk the Trump Kool-Aid, for whom a little bit of assurance might help them steel themselves against the pressure to commit ballot jankery. At any rate, if the terms of our détente with moderate Republicans is that we all agree a dangerous caudillo shouldn’t be president, these are perhaps the most favorable-to-the-left negotiations in recent memory. At any rate, I’d rather spend the next four years having policy arguments with a too-centrist Kamala Harris than being rooted out as an “enemy of the people.”

Harris doesn’t just save this rhetoric for the Never Trump set, however. This is but a part of a recent push to make these arguments in front of rallygoers of all stripes, often by doing little more than standing out of the way and letting Trump speak for himself. As NPR reported on a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, Harris showed attendees a 30-second mastercut of Trump’s recent public derangements—a montage that “showed Trump repeatedly complaining about ‘the enemy from within’ suggesting they should be jailed—or dealt with violently.”  

By showing rallygoers videos of Trump’s demented ravings, Harris is buying herself more coverage of Trump at his worst. The key difference here is that rather than just sit back and hope that the political press might decide to cover Trump as a dangerous, blathering loon, she’s giving them what they really want: a big ol’ partisan slapfest to cover. 

Stunting on Trump in this fashion meets a media that’s eternally horned up for conflict and controversy where they live, increasing the odds that the wild, authoritarian fantasia Trump’s been spinning on the stump gets more daily coverage. It’s also something of a twofer, because in addition to all the vile racism and violent musings, you’re also wrapping in Trump’s visible infirmities in forming complete sentences and following a conversation. 

It also advantages Harris if Trump takes more questions about the crazy things he says. The fallout from Trump’s invocation of using the law to pursue and punish “enemies within” has been considerably worse for Trump now that Harris is drawing attention to it. In the first place, when Trump’s been pressured to be more specific about who he means by “enemies within,” he’s included well-known Democratic politicians like Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi, which probably sounds great if you attended a Nazi boat parade for Trump in recent days; less so if you’re a moderate voter with normie tastes. 

It’s also clear that this coverage is annoying Trump as well: At Wednesday’s Fox town hall event (in which Trump was peppered with questions from an audience of what seemed to be Republican organizers cosplaying as undecided voters), Trump was asked about his recent “enemy from within” remarks, and he offered a petulant response. “You know what they are,” he groused about the Democrats complaining about his rhetoric. “They’re a party of sound bites.” The man truly does not like having his own words read back to him. But it’s an easy way to bait him—and as Harris demonstrated during the debate, baiting Trump is a time-tested way to throw him off his game.

The shift Harris is making here is a laudable break with a bad dynamic that Democrats get into with the media. Far too often, Democrats expect the media to take the lead on pointing out that Trump is a psychopath, in order to demonstrate the fourth estate’s commitment to democracy. The media, meanwhile, expects Democrats to take the lead on policing Trump’s lies because, to their mind, it’s the best way to demonstrate their mettle as politicians. It’s arguable that this arrangement consigns all parties to the job for which they’re least well-suited. More to the point, Democrats will probably witness the heat death of the universe before the mass media develops the sort of patriotic impulses that would lead it to save democracy of its own volition. 

It’s better to make good use of the small-minded, shiny object–obsessed political press that we have and feed them the birdseed they want—chaos, controversy, and cheap conflict—than pretend that this industry is going to have some kind of nick-of-time civic awakening. The only way the media will cover Trump as an enemy to democracy is for Harris and her fellow Democrats to make a daily habit of serving up broadsides on the topic. If Democrats have figured this out, it’s a consequential step that could decide the election in their favor.

This article first appeared in Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here.

Our exhausting permanent presidential campaigns eventually lead us to this point: less than one month to go, the home stretch, the closing argument. It’s taken a lot for Democrats to reach this point with a real shot at actually winning the presidency, but it will still be a white-knuckle affair. For Kamala Harris, the polling is good, and rather steady, but not great. Donald Trump, despite having spent the past few weeks defaming innocent Haitian Americans and spreading untold lies about hurricane recovery efforts, is still very close to winning himself.

Is Harris doing enough to beat him at the finish line? I’m not so sure. As The New Republic’s Alex Shephard wrote this week, Harris is making something of a too-close-for-comfort retread of her first, failed presidential run. Harris has arrived at this point too guarded and overcautious, he argues, with too many edges sanded off and what seems like a different policy walk-back every day. “With Election Day fast approaching,” Alex writes, “there’s a growing sense that she could—and should—be doing more.”

But what “more” should she be doing? My two cents: Harris needs to drill down on specific matters that help define her candidacy, contrast it with the corrupt impunity that a second Trump term will bring, and cast the widest possible net to woo any or all voters who might join her coalition. Specifically, here are three matters critical enough to be part of any closing argument that Harris and her Democratic allies make in these final days:

1. I know that I’m a broken record on this, but Democrats really need to raise the salience of the Supreme Court. Everyone committed to a Harris victory should make it clear that there are two Supreme Court vacancies at stake: Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito may not be signaling a desire to retire from the bench, but a Trump win gives them the option to escape, knowing that like-minded replacements will be on their way. And while it might be difficult to find juridical minds more troglodytic than the two most venerable members of the conservative majority, you can definitely find younger bodies into which their ideas might be stuffed.

This is honestly the alpha and omega of anything Democrats might otherwise argue. Right now, with the current majority having gutted Chevron deference, anything that might be considered a “Democratic policy” is subject to the review of a hostile court that’s making up the rules as they go along. It’s possible that Democrats don’t really understand how bad a position they’re in now that Loper Bright is the law of the land. They should listen to the judicial experts in their corner—or get some new ones. Regardless, “Two Supreme Court vacancies are at stake in this election” needs to become a mantra.

2. As I predicted some months ago, 2024 has become a year defined by Republicans largely lying about their unpopular positions on abortion rights. They will, of course, seek to ban nationally as soon as the opportunity presents itself (before moving on to other retrograde policies from Project 2025’s pages). Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have in recent weeks gone all in on the centerpiece of their deception, constantly reiterating that Trump will veto any abortion ban that crosses his desk. While it’s ordinarily sufficient to point out that Trump cannot be trusted and that Harris and her fellow Democrats have more convincingly committed themselves to safeguarding reproductive rights, Harris and her allies must do a better job explaining how Republicans actually plan to bring about a national abortion ban if Trump is elected.

As The New Republic’s Melissa Gira Grant points out, such a ban is not going to arrive in the form of a bill landing on Trump’s desk; Congress need not be involved at all.

What Trump might do—what his allies want him to do—is enact a ban by enforcing the 1873 Comstock Act, which can’t be vetoed since it’s already on the books. Trump’s misdirection distracts from his consistent anti-abortion record while in office, what the Republican Party platform states, and the very public plans of his former staffers detailed in Project 2025, which Trump also pretends he has nothing to do with. That is part of the Trump-Vance campaign’s plan on abortion: to do whatever they can not to talk about that plan, or at least to confuse the public about what that plan is.

This is a strong issue for Harris, which is all the more reason not to fight this battle on Trump’s terms but to actually level with people about what he intends to do. In their two debate performances, the Harris-Walz ticket failed to make mention of Comstock, despite the fact that Vance actually asked the DOJ to enforce it in a January 2023 letter. This needs to change: Democrats have the truth on their side, and it’s stupid to not use it against an inveterate liar, dissembling on an issue of paramount importance.

3. If abortion is one of the Democratic Party’s best issues, then immigration has to be one of their worst. As I noted a few weeks ago, any hope that we might return to sane comprehensive immigration reform policies has been scotched after the Biden administration entered into a race to the bottom with the GOP’s nativist cranks. The biggest overhang of Trump’s first term is that he managed to set the terms on immigration and yank Democrats to the right. He’s also managed to drag public opinion in his direction. A September 18 Ipsos poll found that there is majority support for some form of mass deportation—a policy Trump plans to deliver.

Democrats haven’t exactly met Trump’s demonization of Haitian Americans with a full-throated defense of these citizens, and it’s not clear that Harris has the stomach for that sort of entanglement. There’s too little daylight between Trump and Harris on immigration, but his plan to exile tens of millions of Americans is the centerpiece of his campaign, so Democrats should attack it with gusto. Fortunately they have another angle to wage war: Correctly depict Trump’s plan as a neutron bomb on the American economy.

As The New Republic contributor Nicholas Slayton reported this week, a recent report from the American Immigration Council found that Trump’s plan would unleash a parade of economic horrors, including estimated GDP losses between 4.2 and 6.8 percent, a $46.8 billion hole in federal coffers, corresponding state and local revenue losses in excess of $29 billion, and “significant labor shocks across multiple key industries, with especially acute impacts on construction, agriculture, and the hospitality sector.” These aftershocks would all create an environment in which “hundreds of thousands of U.S.-born workers could lose their jobs.”

Plus, the total cost to taxpayers just to implement this plan to destroy the U.S. economy would be in the vicinity of $315 billion (a figure the AIC says is “highly conservative”), which would give Democrats the chance to ask Trump the question so often chucked in their direction: “But how will you pay for it?”

It’s not ideal that Harris has been a risk-averse politician—and I personally wish she was more like Biden on economic matters. But these faults are things we can all fight about later down the line. Harris needs to end this election making the arguments necessary to put the Trump epoch behind us. These three areas give Harris broadly appealing arguments to make and clear contrasts to raise, forcing Trump to defend the MAGA extremism that now dictates much of our everyday lives.

Best of all, these aren’t the kind of risky stances from which Harris has heretofore shied away. This is normie bait: good for the broad Democratic coalition, salient to swayable Republican voters, and relevant to habitual nonvoters that both campaigns hope to get off the fence. Winning in November may boil down to a few big contrasts that will define the future—and whether or not Democrats can speak with one voice about why their version of the future is preferable.

This article first appeared in Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here.

This week, members of both houses of Congress came together, in bipartisan fashion, to accomplish the one thing they’ve been consistently excellent at in recent years: giving one another long vacations away from Washington. This time, lawmakers will adjourn knowing that by their mid-November return, they will resume their duties in a much-changed world: Either former President Donald Trump will have been reelected or former President Donald Trump will be conspiring with Republicans to overturn Vice President Kamala Harris’s election.

The extent to which this all might weigh heavily on the minds of Harris’s congressional allies is not something that I know for certain. That said, it is conspicuous enough that House Democrats spent part of their last week staging a hearing on Project 2025, the elaborate manifesto that purports to be Trump’s second-term agenda, which the former president has, in unconvincing fashion, attempted to disavow. It’s not hard to see why: Democrats successfully pushed Project 2025 into the zeitgeist and poisoned public opinion against it.

All of which might raise the question: Why fight a war you’ve already won? Well, sometimes you just gotta play the hits, I suppose. While Democrats weren’t exactly breaking new ground in their presentation (which paid substantial homage to the multimedia gloss used by the January 6 select committee), TNR’s Grace Segers took note of a new trick that Democrats pulled from their sleeve during the hearing: an effort to “put human faces to what they saw as the most objectionable of Project 2025’s proposals.”

The presentation on Tuesday included testimony from a woman who needed to travel out of her home state of Wisconsin to obtain an abortion, an autoworker from Michigan who spoke about the agenda’s anti-union provisions, and a Virginia woman who relies on Medicare to obtain insulin. It focused specifically on abortion, the economy, and Social Security and Medicare access—topics that are among the most important for American voters.

For a party that I think too often gets caught in the weeds of airy principles and highfalutin paeans to Washington norms, I think this is a welcome shift in tactics. It’s a good sign that Democrats are following an instinct to put flesh and blood on the bones of their case against Trump and to tell real-life stories about the potential mayhem of a future Trump presidency. (TNR contributor Nina Burleigh recently hosted a panel discussion devoted to these insidious plans.) It’s rhetoric that fits Harris’s prosecutorial skills, and it fills in an important blank space: If the next few weeks of this campaign are to be a prosecution of Trump, that case will need plaintiffs—the realer the better.

It’s an auspicious time for such storytelling, as it seems that stories of the real people harmed by the GOP’s designs have recently blossomed across the news cycle. Last week, ProPublica’s Kavitha Surana named two women who lost their lives due to Georgia’s abortion ban. Harris immediately made avenging their deaths part of her campaign. “This is exactly what we feared when Roe was struck down,” she told reporters.

Harris has established firm footing on the issue of reproductive rights. Like the attention given to Project 2025, hers is the more popular position, and she’d be well advised to keep finding stories to tell about the dangers of the post-Dobbs world. That said, I’ve argued that the campaign needs to expand its palette to include other patches of what should be favorable terrain, such as Trump’s plan to purge the federal workforce and restore a corrupt spoils system, and the Supreme Court’s attack on liberal governance by gutting Chevron deference in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, without which most of the policies Harris might propose in office won’t survive.

As it happens, reporters have lately endeavored to put some human faces on these complicated matters as well. Over at The Washington Post, author Michael Lewis has been turned loose to curate a series of stories on the men and women of the federal workforce, which Trump wants to transform into an instrument of his revenge and self-enrichment. As TNR’s Tim Noah notes, this is a welcome shift from a paper that’s too often given the civil service short shrift. Meanwhile, over at ProPublica, Eli Sanders draws back the curtain on the people who’ve already been harmed by the Loper Bright decision, confirming the fears of the dissenting Justice Elena Kagan, who warned that the ruling would lead to “large scale disruption.”

This might be the most critical time for Harris and her allies to make use of this considerable fodder and start weaving stories of the people who stand to lose in a second Trump term. Stories that come attached to human faces are more potent and palatable to the media than those attached to intangible arguments about norms and principles: The lives of actual people are more easily transformed into the controversy and conflict that the political press craves. (It’s for this reason that it’s maddening that the Harris campaign hasn’t made a stirring defense of the Haitian community who have so recently borne the brunt of Trump’s attacks, and who live as a febrile example of what his mass deportation plan will be like. This is something that Harris should correct with all due haste.)

I still think that Harris and her fellow Democrats shouldn’t skimp on another rhetorical priority: looking toward the future for which she’ll ostensibly be fighting if elected; this too can be decorated with human faces. And with Congress out, it’s hard to know what platform these important allies will use to mount a case in the media. But it’s nice to see Democrats develop a taste for the kind of storytelling on display at this week’s Project 2025 hearings. There’s magic in having a bit of the old human touch. This election won’t be won with white papers, websites, or wonkery. Victory in November will be claimed by whoever makes the best use of stark moral tones and the real-live stakes faced by real-live people. It will be won by whoever best manifests the joy of helping our neighbors, the satisfaction of crushing their enemies.

This article first appeared in Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here.

If Donald Trump has a singular policy proposal that he’s planning on implementing upon his return to Washington, it’s probably his bruising and “bloody” mass deportation of tens of millions of people from the United States. Kamala Harris understands that what Trump is proposing is frightening, darkly warning on Wednesday that the plan could herald massive raids and deportation camps. But even as she takes this message to voters, her own position on immigration is, as The New York Times characterizes it, “a balancing act.” It’s important to identify what, precisely, she’s trying to balance, though: on the one hand a desire to appeal to immigration restrictionists and on the other a moral imperative to treat migrants fairly and humanely.

It’s an odd situation for Democrats to be in, considering that draconian immigration policies are Trump’s bread and butter—to say nothing of his habitual demonization of migrants and immigrants. If something in the Democratic response seems to be sputtering, however, that’s probably indicative of a sad reality: One of Trump’s big political successes was his dismantling of the polite Beltway consensus on immigration reform and taking public opinion with him.

If Trump implements his mass deportation scheme, it would be perilous for just about everyone. As the Washington Monthly’s Robert Shapiro reported last May, the proposal would be economically calamitous—damaging to key industries and certain to “bring on a recession while reigniting inflation.” But Shapiro points to something else beyond the economy that seems like it might leave a deeper wound: “MAGA attacks on immigration also draw on common fallacies and reckless misrepresentations. For example, the vast majority of unauthorized immigrants have deep ties to their communities and the country.”

This is the heart of the matter: a plan to harm both immigrants and the communities that have taken them in. If you’d like to get a feel for what it looks like when Trump is carving up the U.S. population, one need only look to Springfield, Ohio, which has become a microcosmic example of the former president’s larger design. There we’ve seen the Trump-Vance campaign concoct and stoke lies, for the purpose of putting a town on edge and fomenting mass paranoia and the tormenting of the Haitian community, who settled within the city limits on the promise of well-paying jobs and helped revive their town. Trump’s efforts have led to the bullying of these immigrants and chaos throughout the community, with leaders futilely trying to stem the tide of the campaign’s meretricious lies while contending with bomb threats and other violence.

Haitians are the epitome of a vulnerable group, having arrived here after “fleeing a series of disasters, both natural and man-made, many of them exacerbated or caused by the government and industries of the U.S.,” as TNR contributor Jonathan Katz wrote this week. The way the Haitians of Springfield have been depicted by Trump and his MAGA allies is especially grotesque, and might be more than mere campaign trail politicking: Engendering public animus toward immigrants is a soft launch of sorts for Trump’s mass deportation project—which, as Mother Jones’ Isabela Dias reports, is going to target not only undocumented migrants but legal ones too.

The Haitians facing Trump’s slings and arrows could use a champion. So far, however, Harris hasn’t exactly been their fire-spitting defender. In their debate, Harris passed on an opportunity to take Trump to task for his racist attacks on Haitian Americans, offering only a throwaway comment (“Talk about extreme”) before pivoting; a second chance to assail his deportation plan more specifically ended with Harris roasting Trump for the criminal charges he’s racked up since leaving office. More recently, at a National Association of Black Journalists confab, Harris expressed support for the larger Springfield “community” without actually naming the segment of that community who are facing the full force of her opponent’s cruelties.

None of this is likely demonstrative of some personal animus that Harris holds toward Haitians in general—though her omission does recall an incident from the 2020 campaign in which the Haitian American community in Miami was left feeling slighted by a Harris campaign visit. It’s more in keeping with a deep skittishness that has permeated the campaign, most likely through the advisers she’s inherited from Biden. But it’s also a timidity that elite Democrats all seem to share on the issue. I was never very confident that Trump’s ouster was going to catalyze much of a reversal on Trump’s immigration policy. As reporters like TNR contributor Felipe De La Hoz have continually reported during its tenure, the Biden administration has been disappointingly predictable.

As Axios reports, the progressives who want a clean break with Trump’s immigration designs are hoping that Harris’s recent hawkish stance is a temporary measure, born out of (an assumed) necessity of the campaign trail. It’s hard to fathom from where they derive this hope. Democrats haven’t exactly blazed a path away from Trumpism. Harris herself is still taunting the GOP for following Trump’s orders to kill the Biden-favored immigration bill that, had it been enacted, would have left these hopeful progressives bereft.

And as Washington bends in the direction of more draconian immigration policies, the public seems to have become more cemented on Trump’s side of the issue. According to a September 18 Ipsos poll, more respondents “believe former President Donald Trump would do a better job handling immigration than Vice President Kamala Harris, and Americans broadly do not understand what Harris’ role is, related to immigration.” And while “most support giving a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children,” there is also majority support for some form of “mass deportation.”

It’s amazing how things change in such a short amount of time. During the Obama administration, Democrats and Republicans took comprehensive immigration reform seriously and tried to find common ground to create a more sensible, secure, and decent way of admitting people into this country. When Mitt Romney pledged to lead a wave of voluntary self-deportation, his proclamation was considered harsh and embarrassing—the fumbling attempts of a dyed-in-the-wool technocrat courting the fringe. Now Trump wants to banish tens of millions of immigrants, including an untold number of legal citizens, and it’s raising surprisingly few hackles.

There is obvious comfort to be taken in the fact that Harris doesn’t share these extreme views and—I think!—doesn’t share Trump’s love of disappearing a huge portion of the populace. But Trump has drastically shifted the Overton window, and Democrats have done almost nothing to arrest it. The aspirations of comprehensive immigration reformers seem all but dead, and the future of humane immigration policies is bleak indeed. We might as well say it, if only because admitting we have a problem is the necessary first step in solving it: Trump won.

This article first appeared in Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here.